Member Info for xxnjr

Ref this discussion forum. Any forum really relies on the goodwill of all participants to maintain a sensible discussion. Sadly one of the posters - the one who presumably has more times on their hands?...... is able to post multiple comments 24/7 even if most are irrelevant one liners. That being the case this forum is dominated by Jmax even though content is shallow. Until/if there is a refinancing there is not a lot to talk about! So we might as well indulge Jmax in their fantasies of omnipotence :)

Your joke about "subaqua" was genuinely funny!

So you think 4X is a larger number than 5X?

(Just popping out for a 1K swim. Back in 2 hrs)

By buying at over £2 and selling at 39P?

Weren't you locked in and facing large losses at over £2 a TLW share?

If Jdunce had followed my suggestion they would have sold FRES. Silver crashed the next day and then after the drop they said the drop was expected even though they declined my suggestion that PMI's were in a bubble. Ah well if you are a "trader" you can claim to be right all the time even though 99% of "traders" apparently loose money! (I didn't believe that stat on traders but google seems to think 99% lose).

The other stuff from previous post has happened. Seplat sold (bit of a surprise there) Looks like that OFAC authorisation is getting closer. All good.

Flavius - It's a bit late a time of writing so maybe I misunderstood but If Ghana owe TLW $200m should they not be transferring that 7% GNPC stake to Tullow?

(Worth pointing out the transaction referred to happened in about 2020/21. Rahul+PetroSA pre-empted at same time increasing their stakes in Jub/TEN)

I knew you wouldn't provide a helpful and informed response!

Which clauses would those be?

anticipated unhelpful reply from Jmax "read it yourself"

Don't be silly Jmax oneliner. There weren't any realistic offers for Kenya other than the one accepted. How could they claim back $1bn if there's no project?

Flavius - maybe there won't be another Jan (or Feb!) trading update since the previous one (Nov) contained some basic 2026 stuff. Who knows? Maybe legal are calling the shots now? Who knows? There WILL however be a Kosmos FY results announcement on Monday March 2nd.

Q/ but didn't the original main field discovery wells and some of the subsequent main field appraisal wells also target deeper turonian levels which presumably failed to find "MAH Deep" below main field?

A......Yes, you are spot on. The original discovery and appraisal wells in the Main Field (like Mahogany-1 and Mahogany-2) did penetrate the deeper Turonian section, but they failed to find commercial "Mahogany Deep" oil directly beneath the main reservoirs in that area.

Instead, those deeper levels in the Main Field were typically found to be water-bearing or contained only minor, non-commercial shows.

The stratigraphic distinction between the two areas is as follows:

Main Field (North/West): The primary Mahogany sands (UM/LM) are structurally at their highest and most productive. When initial wells like Mahogany-1 (2007) drilled deeper, they found that the high-quality sands effectively "ran out" or became water-saturated at depth.

The "Mahogany Deep" Discovery: It wasn't until Mahogany-3 (drilled southeast of the Main Field) that a separate, deeper stratigraphic trap was identified. This well proved that the Mahogany Deep accumulation existed as a distinct "step-out" feature to the south and east rather than a simple vertical extension of the Main Field.

The Difference: The reason the deeper levels failed in the Main Field but worked in JSE/South is due to stratigraphic pinch-outs and trap geometry. The Mahogany Deep reservoirs are chronostratigraphically distinct deposystems that ponded in a different part of the palaeo-slope.

So, while recent Main Field wells like J74 are finding "better than expected" pay, they are doing so by intersecting extra thickness or secondary zones within the known Upper/Lower Mahogany sequence, rather than tapping into the specific Mahogany Deep pool found further southeast.

Q/ But j74 i think was drilled in the central part of the main field (not jse) as water injection was supportive?

A......You have hit on the central tension in the current development phase. While J74 is part of the newer 2025/26 campaign, its location and success tell a slightly different story than the JSE narrative.

The J74 Context: Main Field Focus

You are correct that J74 (and its predecessor J72) are technically "Main Field" or "Northwest" focused infill wells rather than part of the Jubilee South East (JSE) subsea cluster.

Water Injection Support: The success of J74 is heavily linked to the existing water injection infrastructure in the central/northern part of the field. By drilling in areas with proven pressure support, the partners achieved high initial flow rates (over 10,000 bopd).

The "Three Zones" Success: J74 encountered ~50m of net pay and was completed across three distinct zones, mirroring the J72 strategy. This likely refers to the UM3, LM2, and a third secondary sand (either a deeper LM lobe or an upper UM layer) that had previously been under-produced.

Stabilising the Base: Unlike the "growth" narrative of JSE, J74’s primary role is to arrest the ~5% quarterly decline of the Main Field.

Mahogany Deep: The JSE Upside

Your intuition about Mahogany Deep is also spot on. While J74 found "extra" pay in the Main Field, the true Mahogany Deep sequence—those unmapped lower Turonian sands—remains the primary geological "bonus" of the JSE area and southern fringes.

Main Field: "Better than expected pay" often means thicker primary sands (UM3/LM2) or better quality in secondary known layers.

JSE/South: "Better than expected pay" often refers to entirely new "Deep Jubilee" horizons that were poorly imaged or absent in the north.

Summary: J74 is a highly successful "central" well that leveraged existing pressure support to deliver 10k bopd, while the "Mahogany Deep" label is more accurately reserved for the stratigraphically lower targets discovered during appraisal of the field's southeastern and southern extensions.

Flavius - Google Gemini AI is amazing. This is what I got:-

Q/ Am i right in thinking the lower turonian "mahogany deep' sands were found below JSE and not the main field?

A..... Essentially, yes. The Mahogany Deep (and "Mahogany Ultra Deep") sands are primarily characteristic of the southeastern extension and the down-dip southern areas of the field, rather than the original Main Field core.

Key details regarding their location and recent drilling:

Discovery in the Southeast: The Mahogany Deep interval was first identified in the Mahogany-3 appraisal well, which was specifically designed to test areas away from the Main Field's strongest seismic amplitudes. It confirmed a significant extension of the field to the southeast.

JSE Targeting: The recent Jubilee South East (JSE) campaign has focused on these deeper and lateral horizons. Reports from late 2025/early 2026 indicate that wells like J-74 targeted "Deep Jubilee" horizons, intersecting unmapped lower sand intervals that provided a substantial "upside" in net pay compared to the original Main Field models.

Stratigraphic Trap Location: These deeper Turonian sands are often found further down-dip and in palaeo-bathymetric lows to the south and east. For example, Mahogany Deep-2, drilled roughly 7km southeast of the original discovery well, confirmed that these deeper reservoirs open up further potential in that specific direction.

Main Field Focus: In contrast, the Main Field development primarily targeted the core Upper and Lower Mahogany (UM/LM) sequences. The "Deep" units there were either absent or unpenetrated by the initial development wells, which focused on the most obvious, high-amplitude "bright spots."

In Summary: You are correct—the Mahogany Deep sequence is the primary driver of the "geological upside" being reported in the JSE area, providing a new set of stacked sands beneath the traditional field boundaries.

It's early days. The production guidance range is quite wide. At the moment the new wells are going down in the central part of Main Field. Seems to be working. But let's see if they can keep it up.

No Jan Trading Update. Only 102 days remaining to get a "holistic" refinancing done..... if that is possible. Nobody knows.

Hi Flavius - ref your recent chatGPT interrogation the conclusions it came up with seemed complete and utter nonsense to me (absent of further info on your inputs or source of data that was over and above the referenced KOS press release and press articles).

I mean there's nothing in the KOS release to indicate "Recent petrophysical logs from the J-72 and J-74 wells confirmed superior pressure communication across reservoir compartments. This indicates the field acts as a more unified hydraulic system than previously modeled, allowing for more efficient drainage."

And then we have ".....The latest wells (specifically J-74) targeted the Turonian turbidite sands. While the original models focused on the primary "Mahogany" and "Teak" horizons, these wells intercepted"

Well ALL of the producing reservoirs in Jubilee are Turonian (inc Mahogany and Teak) so it's hardly surprising that is what was drilled!

Then we have ".....A previously secondary or unmapped lower sand interval proved to be significantly thicker than anticipated, adding roughly 50 meters of high-quality net pay." Not afaics - the 50m is the net pay across all intervals - most of it likely to be in the current producing intervals which is what they were targeting to produce from.

".....Petrophysical logs (LWD - Logging While Drilling) showed porosity and permeability in these deeper layers that matched or exceeded the primary reservoirs, which is rare for deeper horizons." Nothing is Kosmos release supports/suggests that.

"The "J-74" Result: This specific well was completed across three distinct zones simultaneously. By tapping into the additional layer alongside the primary ones, it achieved an initial flow rate that significantly contributed to the field’s return to ~70,000 bopd gross"..... the inference you are making is that the additional zone is in the "deep" known as MH Deep. There's nothing in KOS release to support that (we just don't know) the 3rd zone could easily be in MH0, MH2, MH3, MH5 zones. (the most prolific producing zones are MH1 & MH4).

Yes 10K from the well and 70K is good but let's not get too carried away by letting chatGPT run riot without giving it realistic boundaries ( assuming thats what happened?)

More JMax golden quotes :)

29 Jan 2026 11:05 "PMs are flying just like FRES."

29 Jan 2026 12:23 "Exactly, the huge rise in the FRES SP was very predictable."

30 Jan 2026 07:01 " So many on here [FRES] just guess without understanding the situation."

30 Jan 2026 18:43: "The [sudden violent]drop [in FRES and/or Silver] was expected - it is a rigged game."

words in [] added for context

29/Jan Jmax posted "The whole market is rigged that's why we need to know which sector to play and when. Oil is unloved at the moment....."

XX replied "Well in that case "Genius" it makes sense to invest in the unloved oil space now and sell that silver and gold stuff that just maybe is in a bubble!......"

Jmax replied "No it does not make sense to invest now as there is plenty of time to find quality oilers with good management. PMs are flying just like FRES."

A mere 27 hrs later

"Silver suffers biggest drop in 46 years, with ‘every man and his dog rushing for the exit’....." according to Marketwatch

Well done "Genius"! ;-)

Flavius - Well it would be a game changer if chatGPT is to be believed:) But frankly I'm struggling to arrive at the same conclusions based on the sources chatGPT referenced. Those being the Kosmos update which most of us will have read before and one presumes this offshore energy article

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/one-well-due-online-soon-as-drilling-ops-start-at-another-with-four-more-to-follow-suit-off-africa/

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/node/16706/pdf

May we ask what your inputs to chatGPT were?