Member Info for xxnjr

Sorry on an intermittent signal in Portugal.

I meant Dividend payout 40% of some cashflow metric with Seplat.

Flavius - with respect you info is somewhat wide of the mark? Seplat's current production is about 135K boepd from memory with visibility to 200K boepd. 65% is oil/liquids. Forget the gas - still leaves 88K bopd of liquids (mainly oil) at a w/int level. Or >2X TLW. You want to talk about reserves? Seplat (I think) have over 1bn barrels 2P 65% of that again liquids. It's a giant resource. You want to talk about sovereign debt. Nigeria is getting upgraded, Ghana downgraded. You want to talk about fiscal terms. Nigeria cut the tax from 50% to 30% incentivising Big Oil to once again commit to big offshore projects. Hence why I chose Seplat as a value comparator. And they will pay 40% of operating cashflow (or some such metric)until 2030 if OP is >$60! Check it out.

The EV is what?.... $1.8bn. No-one is going to pay that. Are they? I mean Heirs just bought 20% of Seplat for less than $600m. I'm travel so numbers just from memory. Seplat 20% is 40k bopd in a few yrs.

The basic issue for any potential acquirer is the enterprise value here.....which is?.....

Meren ruled it out. Doubt of that will change even with change of CEO.

That's what I'm thinking GG. Current production makes a nonsense of the lower end of 2026 guidance. If anything (although it's really premature to suggest it) production may verge towards top of range.

Can't tell you if there will be a successful refinancing, or what the terms of that would be (if there was one) but what I can say is the outlook for production seems to be a lot more promising than Tullow's low end guidance. Not a rec to buy. Still a gamble (at least from my standpoint) but well done anyone who took the plunge and then took profits. Or if your holding - good luck!

Is there any truth in the rumour that clowns use humour as a defense mechanism?

I mean just oil

J: 70,000 x 0.3898 = 27,286

TEN: 13,000 x0.5484 = 7,129

CDI =500

Gross oil company = 34,915

Does not include gas.

Tullow are "sandbagging" with the lower end of that guidance range to scare the bondholders.

At what point in time of the loading operation and where is the Q&Q analysis carried out?

Gemini------> For offshore oil cargo operations in Ghana, Quantity and Quality (Q&Q) analysis is a continuous process that occurs in three distinct phases: Pre-loading, During loading, and Post-loading.

The analysis is conducted by an independent third-party inspector (e.g., SGS Ghana or Intertek) who boards the export tanker via a shuttle boat or helicopter before operations begin.

1. Pre-Loading Phase (Establish Baseline)

Where: Onboard the receiving export tanker.

When: Immediately after the tanker arrives and the "Key Meeting" between the inspector, the tanker's master, and the FPSO representative is completed.

Activity: The inspector gauges all cargo tanks to determine the On Board Quantity (OBQ)—any residual oil or "slops" remaining from previous voyages—to ensure it is not counted as part of the new shipment. They also verify tank cleanliness to prevent contamination.

2. During Loading Phase (Real-Time Monitoring)

Where: Primarily at the FPSO's metering skid and the tanker’s manifold.

When: Throughout the 24–36 hour pumping window.

Activity:

Quantity: High-precision custody transfer meters on the FPSO provide the primary volume data.

Quality: Automatic samplers at the FPSO manifold collect a "composite sample" proportionally throughout the entire load. This sample represents the average quality of the 950K barrels.

3. Post-Loading Phase (Final Certification)

Where: Onboard the export tanker and in an onshore laboratory (usually in Takoradi).

When: Immediately after the "Stop" command is given and the hoses are disconnected.

Activity:

Final Gauging: The inspector performs manual ullage measurements of the tanker’s tanks to calculate the Total Received Volume.

Lab Analysis: The composite sample is taken ashore (or sometimes tested in a small onboard lab) to determine critical commercial factors: API Gravity, Sulphur content, and BS&W (Basic Sediment & Water).

The results from this final phase are used to issue the Certificate of Quantity and Certificate of Quality, which are the legal documents required to trigger the 30-day payment clock.

I've over simplified it. The general drift was correct but according to Gemini

"Typical Payment Timeline

The sequence from loading to cash receipt follows a standardized industry workflow:

Bill of Lading (B/L) Date (Day 0): This is the date loading is completed at the offshore installation.

Pricing Window (Days 1–5): The final price is typically calculated using the 5-day average of Dated Brent immediately following the B/L date.

Quality & Quantity (Q&Q) Certification: Independent inspectors verify the final volume and quality (e.g., API gravity, sulphur content).

Commercial Invoice Issuance: Once the pricing period ends and Q&Q results are available, the seller issues the final commercial invoice.

Standard Payment Due Date: Most major contracts (e.g., Tullow or NNPC) specify payment 30 days from the B/L date.

Banking Processing (Day 30+): International bank transfers (typically via SWIFT MT103) can take 1 to 5 working days to clear into the producer's account."

One point forgot to mention. Cargos are not shared. They are dedicated to one party. So we do not know if this cargo is for TLW, KOS, or GNPC (or that dodgy account for Jubilee Oil Holdings where the oil from Ghana's increased equity seems to go).

So basically its ave of brent for next 5 days starting tomorrow. Sat and Sun is same as Fri close in my head as an approximation.

It doesn't really work like that StanleyPro. What happens is it typically takes about 27 hrs to load a Jubilee cargo (+ sort of 3 to 4 hrs tanker manoevering before and after.) But anyway there's a point in the operation when the uncouple the 'pipe' when the barrels on loaded to the tanker which becomes the effective date subject to a 'bill of lading' having been received. I understand that should happen on or about the same date. The price received would usually be the 5 day ave brent from that Bill of Lading date. So in simple terms it ought to be the 5 day brent ave from tomorrow with the 'cash' received electronically sometime later (probably less than 30 days later?). Now that is what used to happen and probably still does but we don't exactly know if the Glencore arrangements have modified these standard arrangements. Gut feel is the timings outlined still apply.

So we have another Jubilee cargo loading today. I was really thinking it would start tomorrow but it's a day earlier than I had pencilled in. What does it mean? Early days but suggests since the new well has come on production has been decent. Approx 70K± (i.e slightly under, or over) is perhaps starting to look like slightly over now. That is definitely encouraging but let's see when the next cargo ships.....

I see the moderators have been out. I'll never know if a certain poster was able to add that time stamp!

Loone your post got taken down. Meanwhile over at FRES

Phuketpunter

Posts: 345

Price: 3,702.00

No Opinion

RE: Silver price2 Feb 2026 04:22

i guess that was the only guy i filtered. every board has a jmax...... ..........proper little keyboard warrior.

Like GALP. Whilst the Total Energies farm in into Mopane (Namibia) didn't live up to market anticipation it was a good opportunity to add. Going ahead Bacalhau came on production 4Q/25. It's a big unit 220K bopd. GALP's share is about 40K on plateau which should mean overall GALP production steps up over rest of 2026. Brasil pre-salt is highly competitive. Breakeven on Bacalhau is <$35/bbl according to Equinor.

To answer your earlier Q thats now disappeared - a fair amount of your content tends to be somewhat shallow (i.e not in depth stuff on Tullow but rather stuff of a more personalised) exemplified by the one at 16:17hrs today!