Member Info for xxnjr

JMAX - Believe or not I'm reaching out to you. Back from walking over the hills. Ref your earlier comments. Those things you mentioned don't sound great. What I would say (and I certainly don't condone whatever occurred) is that if that happened in the 'blogosphere' world then don't be defined by it and rise above it. If on the other hand it was face to face or whatever then that would be a different matter.

Regarding "..... none of them (experts) can explain why this is an 'investment' case." I suggest you are arguing with yourself just for the sake of it. No-one has come forward because most/all on here do not consider Tullow an investment. Despite that many on here (yourself included apparently) have a position that they regard as more of a gamble.

There is an investment case to be made but it is still more a gamble! :-

1) TLW/GRA resolve their tax disputes and Ghana pay about $200m arrears.

2) After above cash received Ghana pay for gas on time.

3) Ghana also pay their share of the bills on time.

4) The $40m Kenya is received on/around 30/6/26.

5) JUB averages 75K over 2026 which is 15K gross over central guidance. I believe this is a realistic goal.

6) Next 3 yrs OP is closer to $75 than $60.

If all of those aligned then that would probably make Tullow a good investment when looking in the rear view mirror. As 1) 2) 3) & 6) are out of Tullow's control then it remains a gamble. But I think quite a few on here (yourself included) are happy to gamble whatever they allocate for the bet - whether their stake is sensible or reckless.

(I'm assuming by 'hold' you JMAX are long)

The other thing.......

Is it really necessary to keep saying "you are right" etc etc bla! bla! all of the time! It just puts peoples backs up!

And one on here regularly produces high level insults!

My read is broker notes are usually behind the curve and not really worth bothering about.

38.98%

0.0098 x 13,000 x $80 = +$10,192/day extra for the bit after decimal point.

Your legal guys must be raking in a fortune in fees from these various fracas!

Your legal guys must be raking in a fortune in fees from these various fracas!

"Interesting that Oil is sky rocketing and Iran are threatening to attack the oil export pipelines to the red sea but TLW isn't moving."

FTSE is down about -2.5%. War jitters. Basically everything is down.

Typo should be: Feb and *Nov*

It's better to get the info from Tullow as AI on this topic is all over the place. Nothing was said in the last 2 trading updates (Feb & Jan) meaning 2025 1H was last data point. The presentation from then says

2026-1H 9,600 bopd floor $58 - $76 ceiling

2026-2H 4,000 bopd floor $59 - $76 ceiling

60% is usually hedged for any current half year period. Maybe they ran out of money and couldn't afford the premium this time round. Who knows!

That is a good Q. Last I remember was about 10K bopd was in a collar of sorts which limits the upside of those bbls to $76. That was in the 2025 First Half Report. Not sure if there's later guidance (probably not).

JMax - it's a free country. We are allowed to change our minds. Just because someone blocked you once then subsequently unblocked you for whatever reason doesn't make them a liar. Come on! It's time to grow up.

Not to mention about 15K to 20K boepd from GOM including a new and interesting exploration play with Shell in the Norphlet play in and around Appomattox.

It seems the more sophisticated shahed drone variants have the capability to disrupt merchant shipping. And it further seems they can be launched from well camouflaged sites in the Zagros mountains. Maybe giving IRAN some tactical plus's.

The only things that are quite often meaningless are some of the comments high volume posters leave on here!

"As for being top of the FTSE today - meaningless."

It's not "meaningless" if an investment goes up 20% in one day.

(even if it was a gamble)

There's a slight divergence between TLW and KOS guidance.

Slide 8 "FY26 Jubilee production expected to be

70,000 – 80,000 bopd gross with current

performance and future activity set

supporting upper end of the range"

https://investors.kosmosenergy.com/static-files/d7e6c003-7102-4a73-a6e4-815f9ca048a6

Your posting history shows (i) you were massively down and (ii) your style of posting has deteriorated for the worse( name calling/always being right/being overly argumentative etc etc). Whether (ii) is a reaction to (i) only you know.

Cannot see Tullow Light having a Market Cap of £15bn.

I just did a rough back of envelope categorisation of JMAX's last 100 posts.

43% (IMO) were somewhat argumentative

another 36% were basically "me posts" (I'm the best/I told you/you got it wrong etc etc bla! bla!)

81% weren't really about Tullow. Of the 19% that were about TLW - 88% were negative about TLW or it's management.

Others looking at those 100 posts might come up with different ratios.

F$$$+,

Given the issues with balance sheet then Tullow is probably THE most highly geared E&P on this planet to higher oil prices. I suppose it then depends on how long OP remain high? The situation with Iran/Middle East isn't exactly clear cut at the time of writing. IRAN could descend into chaos, civil war even which would probably support the OP longer term. Or maybe whoever is left in IRAN in the current leadership/republican guards orbit having been bombed to virtual annihilation stay in power by reaching a pragmatic accord with Trump and OP falls back. Could go either way I guess?