RE: Share Prices20 Mar 2026 23:19
Tonyb33,
Thanks for your analysis. It was interesting. One point on the Ghana License extensions. I think the existing licenses run until about 2035/6. Meaning the license extensions are about 4 to 5 yrs (not 14?). Also worth noting GNPC will gain another 10% equity from their partners from about 2036(?).
Then on hedging. If I understood you correctly your suggestion sounds like a potentially brilliant financial engineering play. However it's perhaps a bit aggressive? Most oil companies have "hedging policies" that prevent them from locking in 100% of production because if production falls short (e.g., a technical breakdown, reservoir under performance), they would be "short" oil they don't have, which could bankrupt the company. For this reason the existing policy (hedge about 50% to 60%) will probably remain.
I've always been very critical of the relatively low dollar downside hedging levels Tullow have arrived at in recent years. Let's hope they can do better in future.