Member Info for xxnjr

Fewdollorsmore

14.75m shares. Thats impressive. Hope it works out for you.

Glitch!!!

(sorry phone clutch) .....Leads to death and destruction in that part of the world.

Don't think much has changed really. You cannot trust the US these days. IRAN is more credible than Trump. IRAN's maximalist demand is the US close all their bases in the region and withdraw! That probably won't happen but i'd imagine some Gulf states are rethinking their reliance on the US as history shows having US around leaders to death and destruction.

And a later piece

"Iran’s Mehr news agency has quoted the country’s foreign ministry as saying Donald Trump’s statements “are part of efforts to reduce energy prices and buy time to implement his military plans”.

“Yes, there are initiatives from regional countries to reduce tensions, and our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all these requests should be referred to Washington,” the Iranian foreign ministry was quoted as saying.

That didn't take long. according to The Guardian

"Iran’s Fars news agency, which is affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has quoted a source as saying there has been “no direct or indirect” contact between Iran and Donald Trump, in contradiction to the US president’s statement just now. The unnamed source said Trump “backed down” after hearing Iran would target power plants in “West Asia”. We have not been able to independently verify the contents of this report yet."

Anyway if you were IRAN what incentive is there to talk? (Given that the last 2 major talks that were at the time heading towards amicable accords were torpedoed by US/Israel bombing the country and killing some of the people US was talking with)

Ref IRAN. Let's see what IRAN say. You cannot trust anything that Trump says. Trump has clearly backed down as he usually does. But why would IRAN give up a winning position without getting MAJOR concessions out of the US. IRAN are still in the driving seat afaics.

Tonyb33 - I'm afraid the link is to inside my head. Its propriety data. I have a methodology for working out production from observing tanker loadings in real time on Marine Traffic. Since I know the tanker uncoupling dates which is when the bill of lading is issued it's easy to calculate the 5 day ave brent from that date which is how oil cargos for Tullow are usually priced. But note that there are 3 off takers. That means a tanker could be for either Tullow +PetroSA, Kosmos or GNPC. PetroSA have a small 2.72% w/int and share tankers with Tullow. What i'm saying is we don't yet know who received the high priced cargos. We will know when Petrocom.gov.gh publish the data usually 3 or 4 months after the event. Not much help I'm afraid when the OP is volatile.

Tonyb33 - Sadly not, as the audit says "Justified for Development reserves (JD) are associated with the Jubilee Base Development project which targets a further campaign of infill wells in Jubilee. Four Jubilee infill wells and one workover are targeted as part of a joint infill campaign with TEN (referred to as Campaign-2)."

If all of the latest batch of wells perform better than modelled then you could get a "revision", where additional reserves partially offset reserves out the door from production. The next audit will probably incorporate the latest thinking informed by 4D/OBN - could be some wins there (hopefully).

Tonyb33 - Thx for posting. If I may add some comments:-

1 "It was done before the oil field lease extensions and so the cashflows were based on the old lease lengths. If you simply put the oil extraction on the old fields at the new lease lengths the valuation rises pro rata....."

Well yes but maybe adjust for the lower w/int as a result of GNPC increasing theirs?

2. Whilst there's some logic to the points you made, Gas Prices in Ghana seem more referenced to local Nigerian pricing rather than International Pricing. The other issue is there's nowhere for the TEN gas to go as it requires an additional Gas Processing Plant to be built at Atuabo. That's not anywhere near to being FID'd by GNPC (or Ghana) and would take 30 months to construct. I'd be amazed if the 3rd party GPP and TEN gas sales agreement were finalised by the time the next reserves audit is commissioned. And anyway why would Tullow in their right mind commit any money to a non-associated gas project where the government doesn't pay you? The current president of Ghana is better but the next one may change things again. Personally I would say"Forget gas - invest the money in oil, or somewhere other than Ghana!" and I would hope the Directors of Tullow concur.

3. Absolutely agree on oil prices :)

4. "In addition in the interim period five new oil wells will have been drilled changing the reserves from 2C (valued at nil) to 2P added to the PV calcualtion....."

The audit says "Approved for Development reserves (AD) are associated with the Jubilee Base Development project which targets further phases of infill wells in Jubilee. Seven Jubilee wells are targeted, including 5 infill wells and two workovers (referred to as Campaign-1)." In other words the 5 wells are already included in the current 2P Audit.

Draft - OP I'm seeing more like $113.50 Brent now.

Barnety2000 - That means JMAX wins.

Why don't we all filter JMAX and never un-filter him again. That means we win :)

JMAX you are on indefinite filter!

What time limit (or period) did B say he had blocked you for ?

Interview in todays paper with former ex-CIA chief

"“He tends to be naive about how things can happen,” Panetta, 87, who supervised the operation to find and kill Osama bin Laden, said by phone. “If he says it and keeps saying it there’s always a hope that what he says will come true. But that’s what kids do. It’s not what presidents do.”

Where's your 'traders' mentality ?

Intimidation

Threats of CPS is intimation. Attempting to silence critics.

Except the SP went up by 300% ?

Gallery Pup,

The operating cashflow guidance is almost certainly conservative (at least from my perspective) as it's based on a really pessimistic production assumption of 60K BOPD for Jubilee. It looks like they could average at least 70K. 75K might just even be possible. So it's a double whammy of higher OP coupled with higher than (conservatively) modelled production. The thing is the market doesn't really believe the production story yet. Hopefully well results will restore confidence. The rig is still on the current well (J75-P).

Jmax - Just for some balance :)

"My posting history clearly shows that I loaded up sub 10p and started selling 40p plus."

Your posting history thanks to some excellent research by Anton also shows you bought loads at what?... let's be generous..... somewhere between £2.50 and £2.00, then ISTR you also subscribed? to that heavily discounted 25 for 49 rights issue in 2017? and ultimately ended up in a position of massive loss by about 2019/20 or thereabouts?.... freely admitting you were unable to do much about your predicament ...... but later and happily for you, managed to average down buying again in "batches" sort of from the 10P rebound selling (the lot?) at 40p.

Your posting history IIRC also one day commented "the smart money is going into PM's" or words to that effect. When someone replied and suggested Silver was maybe in a bubble and the smart thing might be to sell FRES and invest in low priced E&P's your reply showed you didn't concur. The next day the silver market crashed. On the FRES forum the very day of the crash and with the benefit of looking in the rear view mirror you wrote something to the effect that you saw the crash coming! Despite apparently not seeing the crash coming less than 24 hrs before.

If any of the above is incorrect please let me know and I'll correct it. Thank you for your attention.