Member Info for xxnjr

Income tax expense was $267m 2024FY.

Tony - That mostly sounds like a Q for an accountant. I'm not one so cannot help much there :) High level view. The 3 main equity partners take turns with offloads rather than sharing every offload between them as can be seen from that Petrocom link I posted yesterday. This results in "underlift" and "overlift" where a no. of std size cargos doesn't match w/int production over the accounting period. These may help

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/2015/8517/6346/deepwater-tano-contract-area-pa.pdf

https://www.tullowoil.com/application/files/1115/8517/6510/west-cape-three-points-contract-area-pa.pdf

https://resourcegovernance.org/sites/default/files/Unitization%20and%20Unit%20Operating%20Agreement_Jubilee%20Field%20Unit%20%5BGhana%5D_SEC%20filing%20from%20Kosmos%20IPO.pdf

Netanyahu has been trying to convince the US to cripple IRAN for 40 yrs. None of the other US presidents bought in to the plan. Trump was the only one stupid enough to be brainwashed by Netanyahu. Trump only has one off ramp "We won, we destroyed everything, we killed all the leadership. Mission accomplished. We're out". It's a lie as in reality IRAN under those circumstances won simply by still being there. The only alternative is for the US to go further up the "escalation ladder" but America still loses as UAE also get's destroyed and the global economy tanks. There are no negotiations ongoing between the US and IRAN. Every day that IRAN doesn't negotiate the situation gets worse for the US and the global economy and IRAN's position gets stronger.

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,054

RE: War still raging27 Mar 2026 11:31

Hi tonyb33 - "5 cargos shipped (63.93 69.64 67.52 70.76 101.66)"

.........In addition at current rates there will be 7 more Jubilee cargos for the remainder of 2026-1H. But we do not know who gets which cargo when! There will probably be 1 TEN dedicated "TLW" cargo in 1H shared TLW (54.84% w/int) + Petro SA(3.82% w/int).

Similiarly account for Jubilee cargos being shared TLW (38.98% w/int) + PetroSA(2.72% w/int) = 1 cargo which suggests TLW get 91.3% of a "TLW" Jubilee cargo. Do the ratios for TEN.

Xxnjr

Posted in: TLW

Posts: 1,053

RE: Tullow Oil (TLW)23 Mar 2026 12:25

Tonyb33 .............Since I know the tanker uncoupling dates which is when the bill of lading is issued it's easy to calculate the 5 day ave brent from that date which is how oil cargos for Tullow are usually priced. But note that there are 3 off takers. That means a tanker could be for either Tullow +PetroSA, Kosmos or GNPC. PetroSA have a small 2.72% w/int and share tankers with Tullow. What i'm saying is we don't yet know who received the high priced cargos. We will know when Petrocom.gov.gh publish the data usually 3 or 4 months after the event. Not much help I'm afraid when the OP is volatile.

There should be 3 gross Jubilee cargos this month - Nobody knows how many of the 3 are TLW cargos - It could be only one cargo is a TLW cargo.

TLW do not get 38.98% of a cargo.

I thought the whole point of Venezuela was to ensure a supply of heavy crude for US Gulf refineries just in case VEN II (IRAN) went ballistic and cut off heavy crude supply from the middle East. The fact US also controlled Venezuela oil exports to China who now have tho pay market price was a bonus.

The reason Tullow can’t just turn a tap to double gas exports comes down to midstream infrastructure, rather than reservoir capacity per se. Unlike ENI's Ghana FPSO which WAS, the Jubilee FPSO WASN'T designed with the complex onboard processing modules needed to condition gas for grid injection. So GNPC/GNGC subsequently built Atuabo Gas Processing Plant (GPP I) onshore to condition Jubilee gas for grid injection. Atuabo effectively acts as a hard ceiling of ~135 mmscfd annualised with downtime, since the design capacity of the GPP is 150 mmscfd. To double that volume, you’d need a second GPP. Even if GNPC had the $500m(?) in CapEx ready today, you’re looking at a 2-year construction lead time at minimum. Until then, any extra gas stays in the ground, gets re-injected, used as FPSO fuel or gets flared. It physically cannot reach the market.

So basically GNPC need to build a GPP II and nobody knows if/when that will happen (they have been talking about it for years). Anyway what right thinking TLW Director would even countenance investing $m's in a dedicated upstream non-associated TEN gas project with a client that has a history of not paying! Jubilee is different as the gas is emitted as a by-product of oil production.

Tonyb33 - Will answer some now and the rest later when I'm free. So cargos for JUB are generally about 955,000 bbls although they were slightly smaller in Feb and March ahead of an FPSO 19(?) day maintenance shutdown. TEN have usually been 975,000 to 995,000 over the years.

There should be an offload round about 2 April (day 2 unhook from FPSO)

Rig still on the well. Seems to be over running a tad.

Are you aware of https://petrocom.gov.gh/production-volume/ which only gets updated at irregular and lengthy intervals.

Snippets from the Annual Report

"Galp also maintains promising opportunities in its portfolio in Namibia - through the Venus project (close to FID) and Mopane.

Early in 2025, Galp successfully drilled the Mopane-3X well in the southeastern section of the Mopane complex, approximately 18 km from the first well Mopane-1X. The campaign resulted in the discovery of significant light-oil and gas-condensate columns within the AVO-10 and AVO-13 reservoir units, with strong indications of high-quality reservoir sands, good porosity and permeability, and elevated reservoir pressures. This was Galp’s fifth successful well drilled in block PEL 83, offshore Namibia, in just over a year and unlocked a new high-potential area in Mopane, following the earlier exploration

success in the northwestern zone, around AVO-1."

So.....basically Venus is close to FID while Mopane has had a substantial resource upgrade with 3 more wells to come targeting "high potential" fans in the SE. Meanwhile Brazil delivers the cash.

OilInterest - JMAX does very little to inspire confidence! The question is why are they like this and why are they here?.....

Nobody knows and nobody can answer that.

Best to filter them at some point once you realise how they are (even though they will regularly claim you are a liar!)

🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩 🟩

IRAN are apparently saying US/Israel have targeted a power gen facility in direct contradiction of the 10 day 'promise' not to.

"JMAX - You had TLW as a 'strong buy' when it was 250p plus."

In the interests of accuracy that should maybe read :-

JMAX - You had TLW as a 'strong buy and HOLD' when it was 250p plus?

Hi tonyb33 - "5 cargos shipped (63.93 69.64 67.52 70.76 101.66)"

First thing to say (1) I looked at the wrong column[my apologies!] and (2) there's been a 6th since, so please use

6 cargos shipped (64.51 66.91 68.50 71.28 93.82 107.31)

In addition at current rates there will be 7 more Jubilee cargos for the remainder of 2026-1H. But we do not know who gets which cargo when! There will probably be 1 TEN dedicated "TLW" cargo in 1H shared TLW (54.84% w/int) + Petro SA(3.82% w/int).

Similiarly account for Jubilee cargos being shared TLW (38.98% w/int) + PetroSA(2.72% w/int) = 1 cargo which suggests TLW get 91.3% of a "TLW" Jubilee cargo. Do the ratios for TEN.

If and when Jubilee output goes up/down I'll revise the numbers. Hope that helps.

Loading suggest about 70K. The rig is still on J75-P.

It's an asymmetrical conflict.

See https://ir.design-portfolio.co.uk/viewer/96/88770

👍

Never mind. It's still a decent wack :) Maybe we should all start reading the Jerusalem Post

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-890954