Member Info for Xenor

If you can let us know what time on the 17th when you find out that would be great. And also details on registering to watch.

This board has become so toxic in recent weeks I'm starting to question if it is even worth visiting. It's rare that I see information here that isn't posted elsewhere. LSE is becoming more like ADVFN with each passing day and will die the same prolonged death if it continues.

Good find.

Hope we get finance news before any further contract news.

So now you are twisting what JW said as well? No, JW did not state in a Telegraph article that shareholders will have to find 40 million. Try again.

You appear to have joined the club of bitter former holders. Well done.

Wow LWHL that is quite the tantrum right there! You're actually whining about people reading too much into your comments whilst crying about what someone said to you (and was long forgotten) over three weeks ago. I had to dig through your posts to even find what you were talking about, god knows what other people were thinking.

Of course the bear case is negative, it wouldn't be a bear case if it wasn't. I have news for you - the bull case is positive.

I'm not going to waste any more of my day on you.

The auditor could only make their calls off of what was known at the time. Clearly more work has come in since then that has changed the situation (Sea Rose for example). I still think refinancing is necessary as the interest is too high, but clearly costs are being met or cash would have ran out by now.

Back when there was first talk of refinancing we hadn't even won the FSS contract and there was no mention of UKEF. So alternatives to Riverstone and UKEF do exist. We don't necessarily need 200m if it comes to that. We just need the current debt to be manageable and maybe a bit extra.

But I see no reason why 80% UKEF guarantee wouldn't be signed off as that is standard. 100% may turn out to have been too ambitious. 80% will still be a great deal, it is what we were all expecting until the end of December news.

Are you a writer for the Telegraph LWHL? You seem to have the same skillset of twisting the truth to suit an agenda.

Yes, I said you don't understand how loans work. No, I didn't say that because you said the company might sign an 80% guarantee. You clearly said the 40m would have to be raised by the company and that in the current market it would be unpleasant for shareholders. There isn't going to be 40m of dilution here if that is what you are hoping for. Again - that isn't how loans work.

He did indeed Deep Sea, I believe it was in the September LSE interview. There will be other options if UKEF says no, but I don't see why they would say no as they are clearly working through any potential issues with the Scilly ferries.

At this point I am starting to wonder if we could even get by without this new finance deal. Many have said it is this or bust, and the share price reflects that. But when you look at the position we are in it isn't as bad as it appears. Clearly the Riverstone interest is an issue, but we maxed out that loan a year ago and seem to be covering costs without getting into further debt (ignoring the Scilly ferries venture for now). This year we will hit EBITDA break even and presumably next year a decent profit.

I think our lending options increase due to the forecast for EBITDA break even as well, so even without UKEF we should be able to get a better deal elsewhere. There's so many alternative options here but those seeking to help their trades will always paint it as black and white, boom or bust.

In fact a Telegraph article has came out this evening effectively backing up my point that it isn't a case of this deal or nothing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/06/05/wont-let-titanic-shipyard-sink-vows-harland-wolff-chief/

As for the interview. I thought it was fairly decent. I like how he mentioned getting turnover to 500m and then 1bn. I am guessing that would be the next 5 year plan. I wonder what the share price would be if revenue was 1bn? Would depend on how much profit I suppose, but I'm willing to speculate many multiples of today's price.

Of course. I was just pointing out the absurdity of it all.

Of course Si. You wouldn't be buying boats if cash was tight. And yet there are still idiots saying each month that we won't meet payroll at the end of the month.

At least it will be running by the busy school holidays.

That would be incredibly disappointing Nobby, if it takes finance confirmation just to get the share price back to where it was prior to the Telegraph article. I'm expecting a much higher bounce. There has to be a lot of risk currently priced in here.

I would have called it a sell too based on the bid/ask at the time of its print but it just didn't make sense that the share price was up 5.71% on the back of such a sell. It still doesn't make sense even knowing for sure it was a sell. We are down 2.7% today on far less sells. The market is very strange.

That explains the 2m trade last week. Hopefully that's it. Killik is a broker used by high networth investors, so that reduction doesn't imply all Killik held shares might be sold.

Don't imagine, read the trading update from December 30th 2022.

"On 13 July 2022, the Group announced that it had been awarded the M55 Regeneration Programme (M55 Contract) by the Ministry of Defence (MOD) on behalf of the Lithuanian Defence Materiel Agency, with a contract value of £55m and contractual payments spread across FY 2022, FY 2023 and FY 2024. Whilst work on the contract commenced in August, the Company has not been able to undertake certain key workstreams during the fourth quarter of FY 2022 due primarily to a lack of material availability and specialist Original Equipment Manufacturers' parts, which have been impacted by global supply chain issues. As a result, management expects approximately £20m of revenues from the M55 contract to be deferred into H1 FY 2023. "

I guess what we don't know here is if the contractual payment for 2023 ended up getting pushed to 2024 as a result of all this, or if we got two payments in 2023. Were we ever told the full revenue breakdown for this? Probably not. My previous post assumes we got 20m last year and 35m this year. But we won't know until we get a trading update. For me it makes little difference, we get 55m for the contract regardless of when the payments arrive.

On M55, I don't believe we got anything for that contract in 2022 and that's one of the reasons the revenue came in so low for that year vs expectations. It was deferred to 2023. We were due a 20m payment for it last year - the deferred payment. That leaves 35m from the contract which is due to end this summer. So I would actually attribute 35m to it this year not 30m.

If we hit 200m this year it will be an outstanding achievement given that the Scilly contract was possibly factored in when the 200m figure was originally stated. As we are already at 180m contracted based on the latest RNS I think there's a chance we will exceed that 200m figure depending on what turns up in the second half of the year.

There's not much point the company doing PR right now to attract investors as the pending finance deal is dictating the share price. I figure once we get that, and the 2023 trading update then the company will start doing PR again such as the LSE interviews they did last year.

Lots to look forward to here once finance is signed off and people will not only be buying based on that uncertainty being cleared up, but also buying on the potential that is to come afterwards. Understand that we are down here at 9p purely because of the uncertainty around finance.

This waiting feels like early November 2022 when FSS contract was expected but not guaranteed. Share price was in the doldrums then too, and look what happened on announcement.

When most AIM shares plummet in price it is usually down to dilution and the market cap barely moves. Here it is down to sentiment. Market cap will correct itself when that sentiment flips.

So the share price is up 5.71% on the back of a 2m sell out of 2.8m volume? Ok whatever. Buy or sell it makes no sense. Share price usually plummets or rockets on that kind of volume.