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So you kept having a go at me on here for selling CPI before results when I predicted this was coming a few months ago, and yet you do exactly the same? The right call in the end, but perhaps think next time before having a go at people. If you'd had some sense you'd have sold on the January spike rather than when it retraced to the six months low prior to the results. It will be the same story here with you selling in the 11s. Poor timing again.
Exactly Scaffman. When he visits H&W shipyard I may start believing that he doesn't have an agenda against the company for the benefit of the duopoly.
It does kinda suggest that too Trickymatters. Kevan Jones and the Times noise ramped up to this level right before FSS was awarded. They were acting as if we'd won it a good two or three weeks before the RNS landed.
Good find Scaffman. I can't view the post but the URL gives enough information. Unbelievable that this guy is visiting rival companies after his persistent comments towards HARL. 100% protection, probably has shares in BAB.
Which facts? Nothing here is new information. I knew about both the Riverstone debt charge and the question in parliament back in February. I would have sold on the Falklands contract spike if it concerned me. To me, it all adds confidence that this deal will be closed one way or another.
You tell us now you are a sell? You have been a sell for at least six months based on your posting history. I suspect we'll see no more from you once the finance deal is closed.
Refinancing Riverstone out and closing the debt deal aren't exactly two different targets. They will be done at the same time.
Interesting one Si. Puts to bed certain noise that the UJEF guaranteed cash can't be used to pay off existing debt.
You're likely right there on his axe. Did he ask any questions about HARL prior to the FSS win? I bet not. This all started once FSS appeared. Same with the Times and shorter blog (the actual name is censored on here) posts.
My theory is that there is a sustained effort to paint everything HARL related from the FSS win to finance in a very negative light to keep the market cap down so that it can't raise any significant money from the markets, and then pray the refinancing collapses.
I would love to know what is going on in the background with the constant Kevin Jones questions, the articles in the Times, the blog posts by the short group, certain posters on this board. It all seems too organised to be a coincidence and these kind of campaigns don't come cheap.
I came across that question weeks ago but I didn't share it as it does seem a bit negative, almost like the banks weren't going to say yes to 80%. However that narrative doesn't make sense as JW said last year he already had a deal on the table.
Indeed, if they increased the size of the loan then there would be an RNS.
What we know is that Riverstone loaned us $100m and that interest is being accumulated and added to the loan so the total we owe is surely over $100m now. Nothing we didn't know already. Riverstone probably just wanted the charge updating to reflect that.
Riverstone haven't loaned us extra cash, they have just increased their charge to account for accumulated interest that we owe. Clear sign that they aren't worried about getting their money back.
It's certainly transformational Stokey. That doesn't take much to conclude. The finance deal when it arrives will make the company financially secure for years to come. Low interest rate over five years.
Of course this assumes that the company does actually become profitable before it maxes out the new loan, but given the contracted work and future potential I see no reason not to believe that 2025 will be a profitable year.
People will still moan about the debt, but it's the risk of being diluted to oblivion by the finance not coming through that has caused people to sell over the past year, or to not buy here. If I weren't already a holder and well researched I would have been put off too and not looked any deeper than "big debt, needs finance, avoid for now". Most sensible investors don't take on such risks.
Consuela, I have watcged that video you linked and it appears to be all about IM. As I am sure you are well aware IM has been held up in red tape for years which has delayed the plans the company had. It's a good thing JW pivoted away from IM being the main priority for the company.
This forum is almost as much of a cesspit as ADVFN this week.
Yes JW has missed targets, we know that. It was announced in RNS so no need to watch four year old interviews.
If there hadn't been a global pandemic followed by supply chain issues, record energy prices and a war in Europe during those four years then I might be concerned.
Sounds like they are going to have a mass exodus of skilled staff who will be replaced by cheaper less qualified staff. Pay cuts and pay freezes lower morale and productivity too. Expect more sloppy work for clients as a result.
Si, I am not going to accept this as a normal market. Dropping share price and positive news having zero impact isn't why we invest in companies. If that's the norm then why bother? It's why more and more people are moving their portfolios to the US and other global markets.
On placings I don't see the share price being anywhere near enough to justify one this year or next. This isn't going to rocket to many multiples on finance. Even diluting 20% at 50p is a pitiful amount for the contracts we'll be working on and the debt level. We've got bigger problems if we get that desperate for a small amount of cash post finance deal and the share price would reflect that so we wouldn't even get a placing through at 50p.
In a normal market I would expect new contracts to have a positive impact on the share price. Like why wouldn't we? Assuming a 20% margin (which is at the lower end) for a 100m contract (lower end again) that is a profit of 20m, which is higher than our current market cap. In a normal market I would expect some of that to be priced in and the share price to move accordingly.
This is what worries me about AIM. It's not functioning as a market should. It's all good saying things will be different post finance, but will they? Or is that just going to be another trader spike? The catalyst we want is IIs and HNWIs buying shares as they tend to hold longer than a day or two. Finance may be the trigger for that. One would hope anyway.
As I keep saying, this is a problem with AIM in general. HARL isn't the only one suffering due to market conditions. Many shares are struggling on AIM, even profitable companies that aren't raising cash. There's just not enough investors to prop up the share prices.
I also disagree with the idea that there will be a placing post finance. I'd never rule it out as they could pay a decent chunk of debt off by raising at say £1 in the future in a few years time. But I would be incredibly annoyed if they did so at anything under that as it's just not worth it for the amount they would get. I would rather sell IM if that's the goal.
Looks over priced to me compared to other shares on the market. Got almost twice as much debt as HARL and 13 times the market cap. Based on that I could easily see sub 10p here before it turns around.