Member Info for Xenor

I assume they are holding the report back in case finance is over the line before the end of the month, but with two days to go that now looks unlikely.

The new technology we are installing in the yards is meant to ensure it remains profitable. Essentially do more work with less welders etc, reduces the wage bill.

Besides that I see more money in fabrication and refurbishment than shipbuilding. Contracts like Sea Rose, Falklands and any wind farm work we can grab.

Diversification is a great strategy, but maybe into operating ferries was a bit too far.

"So I’d expect things to be twitchy"

Speak for yourself. I'm looking forward to the update. I'm assuming we will get a trading update alongside it.

Expecting a flat day or small rise on results. It may dip initially as the doom mongers act surprised when we miss the 100m target and act shocked when the auditor repeats the same statement from last year (due to lack of finance) but those are knowns and I expect any dip to be bought from people like yourself jumping back in. Last year the state of the finances took people by surprise, this year it is expected and twitchy people have already sold. Hence 9p.

As I keep saying, the finances can't be that bad or we would have ran out of cash by now. Good reasons to believe we are operating at EBITDA break even, though the accounts are obviously for 2023 so I expect a loss for that period due to the poor H1 performance.

As for a pay cut, on what basis? We have four thriving shipyards winning bigger and bigger contracts in diverse sectors. The ferry business may not be what most shareholders want but it's hardly justification for pay cuts. The delayed refinancing is reliant on third parties.

Company is finished. It will get suspended on July 1st and won't come back from it in my opinion.

This is just following the path of pretty much every other resource company on AIM. Pile of turds that will dilute and dilute until nothing is left and then go bust and get bought on the cheap.

I wouldn't be so sure on a negative reaction to the 2023 results. For most of the last 19 months since the refinancing was first announced people have been saying we are going bust if we don't get it and have priced the share as such. And yet here we are in June 2024 giving workers a backdated pay increase of 13% with no deal over the line.

I expect some are gambling on poor results and would react negatively to them even if we post a billion pounds profit because their trade requires it. Careful what you listen to and draw your own conclusions.

Agree 100% on the ferry. Colossal waste of time, resources and money at the wrong time. But it should pay for itself eventually.

I thought we would have had confirmation by now too but there's no reason to assume there is a delay. Maybe there's just more negotiations with this one. Or maybe it won't be confirmed until finance deal is done. An update would be nice.

Stokey who said there is a delay in signing the Falklands contract?

I suspect the company are making a lot of money from the freight side of the Scilly business so hopefully that is covering a lot of the losses on the ferry. One would hope that when the ferry finally does sail then it too should be profitable. I'm still not a fan of this whole thing but other than the initial setup I don't see it being a drain on finances.

Bubble it does appear that way given that the trolls have been saying we are imminently running out of cash for a year now. Lack of new finance is more of a handbrake on growth than a company killer, but the debt does need to be refinance one way or another as the deal with Riverstone is awful.

Newspapers don't like good news, it doesn't generate lots of clicks in the same way bad news does. I'm even expecting them to spin finance into a negative article when it eventually comes.

For me the news yesterday was a sign that cash flow is still good, offers some reassurance. For those on the sidelines they probably rather wait until finance is over the line and pay the premium. I am thinking we will stay at this level until then unless we get contract news.

Were you expecting rockets on that union news yesterday or something?

Taken from the most recent RNS that wasn't IM:

"The business currently employs in excess of 1,500 people who are all engaged on active projects."

I would be surprised if we have 900 in the other three yards + Scilly projects.

You must have about 5 million shares by now.

We must be doing fine with cash if we can offer that.

I like how that was the only part of my post worth commenting on.

Anyway I think it is a bit of a quirk. Normally if accounts aren't filed on time then the share is suspended until the accounts are posted. But if they are posted at 7am on the Monday following a June 30th that falls on a weekend then there's no suspension because the accounts are there. I don't see why HARL would do that however, it's not like they will be negotiating the loan on a weekend to get it over the line. I'm expecting the accounts next Friday unless finance arrives pretty soon and they are finalised before then.

The results could technically come in 1st July 7am and still be on time (ie no suspension).

I also don't believe the election has any effect on UKEF signing off finance.

I don't think the results will be bad. I made a lengthy post about this on TG last night but in short - our debts can't have increased too much because the Riverstone debt was nearly maxed out by the end of 2022. Our losses can't be terrible based on the September H1 results, our revenue being backloaded to H2 and the fact we didn't run out of cash and still haven't. This all suggests we are already operating around EBITDA break even.

I could end up being wrong but I'm optimistic it's not going to be the car crash it was last year. What the auditor says will depend on whether finance arrives beforehand or not, but even if the comments are negative it's not like it's any different to what we know already - that we need finance sorting.

You left yourself out of that list. There's a reason a lot of shareholders don't post here much any more, and it's not because we have sold!

Leaner? You really are clutching at straws now. It's still in the top 5 boards on LSE with more posts than trades. Try harder.

Broomtree will be expecting us to start digging iron ore and make our own steel next.

It still all boils down to getting finance over the line, regardless of the result yesterday. The risk hasn't necessarily increased since the JR result as I don't believe it was tied to a new finance deal. We need an update on finance.