Member Info for Xenor

I agree with Findingtheta. We need IIs here to see any real movement. AIM is just a trader's paradise. This has nothing to do with HARL or the RNS, it's just the way AIM has been for the past two years. All good news on AIM is traded away and bad news sets a lower floor.

Some are speculating that 2024 will be the year AIM recovers, but I will believe it when I see it when IIs and HNWIs start investing in the market again. HARL could still be considered high risk until the debt deal is finalised, so I don't expect a lot of movement before then.

I'm convinced AIM is a dead stock market. I will be having serious thoughts about pulling all my money off of it if it doesn't show signs of life this year. There's no point investing in good companies if the exchange they're trading on isn't functioning properly.

Maybe MMs read Evil Banksta's drivel and went on strike.

Porthy, almost certainly. A lot of these investor blogs (both positive and negative) are written by traders to suit their own trading agendas. It's the same with all these investor podcasts or interviews. Rarely are they done for free or without an agenda.

Interesting fact... The last placing HARL did is so far away we can't even say it was the year before last any more. That's a lifetime on AIM. I no longer invest in companies that repeatedly dilute their shareholders to oblivion. That's why I stayed well away from COPL despite its assets looking good on paper.

"Evil Banksta" has form for being incorrect about HARL. He should not be listened to any more than any other random person on these boards. Just because his post is on a web page as opposed to here doesn't give it any more credibility.

As I mentioned in my last post, it was only a few months ago that this person was scaremongering with blog posts about how HARL is imminently running out of cash and needed to raise by the end of 2023. That turned out to be a pack of lies. He's now trying again with a new pack of lies. Share Prophets have been posting blogs for over a year now stating HARL will need to dilute shareholders into oblivion, and they have been wrong on each occasion. It's getting to the point of desperation.

The amusing part is that people are paying to read that sensationalist tripe. Maybe I should start putting my posts on a web page and charge you all £10 a month ro read them. Make sure to send them to these MMs too.

What must not be overlooked as well is current cashflow. We had almost maxed out the Riverstone debt facility by the start of 2023, and yet here we are:

"Through a combination of cash currently held on the balance sheet and expected cash flows in 2024 generated from existing contracts, the Directors consider that the Company has sufficient funds to meet its working capital requirements until the new loan facility is completed."

So what that tells me is we must be pretty close to cashflow break even since contracts are covering costs. If they weren't, we'd have had to accept a loan on poor terms by now or some other kind of funding. Indeed for H2 23 + H1 24 we will be looking at around 140m of revenue if we take 60m for H2 23 from M55, FSS and other, plus 80m+ from Sea Rose and M55 completion in H1 24. So I can see why cash is not tight here.

So much for "imminently running out of cash by the end of 2023" as some people liked to spew to get people to sell their shares over the past few months. That statement above by the directors shows this viewpoint couldn't be any further from the truth. The first clue to this was in November when we decided to try buy another company. You don't do that if cash is tight.

At some point this is going to flip from loss making to profit making, and it's not going to be a couple of millions of profit, the trajectory will be steep and we will all be rewarded. The UKEF financing will see us through to that point.

For someone who claims to only hold a small speculative amount of shares amongst a personal ETF of 30 shares you sure do spend an awful lot of time on this board. Indeed two thirds of your posts - 155 in the past month. Your posting frequency and personal attacks only seem to have increased since the recent RNS. I suspect there is more to this story.

30 shares? Holy crap. I remember when I first started investing and held about 15 and people were telling me it was too much. There's diversification and then there's trying to manage your own ETF single handedly. But you do you, on to HARL.

I am not going to stress about Q3 and Q4 until at least Q2. Contracts can and will come in at any time. Keep in mind Sea Rose wasn't confirmed until October with a start date 3 months later. Your worry is based on the assumption we don't win any more contracts before Q3, I don't think that is a fair assumption.

On finance, 100% relaxed here following the recent RNS. I agree with Kaeren this deal is exceeding expectations. My expectations were an 80% guarantee at under 10% interest rate with 10-20% of current shares in warrants for the lenders. What we are getting... 100% guarantee with zero warrants. Cash flow remains good, so JW has been honest all year that there was no rush to sign the first deal offered. He is delivering in my view.

My only complaint is the way the predictions on completion have been handled. Clearly it wasn't under his control so why make them? I suspect because shareholders nag for answers like that.

On revenue I would rather JW under promised and over delivered than the other way around. We are on track to treble 2022 revenues and yet here we are disappointed that we're not quadrupling them because expectations were set so high.

I am also fully aware of the difficulty of predicting revenues for a company a year ahead where they can't guarantee they will win the contracts that make up that revenue. Take 2024 for example. We have a 200m expectation but only 150m booked. What happens if we don't win and complete an extra 50m of work in 2024? Should the guidance not be 150m to allow us to exceed expectations rather than potentially miss the target? In my view this 200m guidance for 2024 was stated way too early. At the same time I do expect further contracts to be won during 2024 so the target looks achievable. I hope we don't get a sniff of 2025 guidance until Q4 next year.

Take no notice of anything you read on Twitter. I rarely follow stock hashtags on there these days as it is mostly just traders pushing their own stocks when it suits them. I suspect some have a second account they use when shorting.

Selling IM will not be a condition of the loan, that wouldn't make sense. The question of whether the loan terms would prevent us from selling IM is an interesting one. I suspect it wouldn't if the cash was used to pay off part of the loan, which would be the smart thing to do anyway. Certainly a question for JW.

As I said this morning...

"Expect a lot of panicky FUD today from names we haven't seen for a while from those with a short or those wanting to get back in."

Hi Spud.

Last year we had a trading update on December 30th and another this year on March 1st. It's quite possible we don't get another until March, as the December one last year contained important information regarding contract cancellations that the market needed to know and could not wait for. As far as we know, all current contracts are going fine right now. March would be 6 months after the September update. That said, I would prefer quarterly updates.

"No trading update so another miss"

There is no legal requirement for a trading update at the end of December. Indeed we got one last year. In 2021 we didn't. Last year had some material news to the market bundled in so the company had to update. I still think an update is due, but today was not a deadline. The company has never stated there would be one end of the year, that's an assumption people (including myself) have made.

I would have thought today would be a gift for you. Basically telling us the finance deal is almost done and just needs a bit more time. It has allowed shorts to close at a low price before the deal comes. It could have been catastrophic if the deal landed and the share bagged before you could close the short. You gambled on a poor trading update... You got this.

It doesn't have to come today. I think if it is a positive update then 7am Tuesday would be better. Getting it at 12:30 today would just make it look like the company is trying to bury it (which never works). Apart from the slight revenue miss I'm expecting a positive trading update this year.

Market likes the update. It's pretty much done but still a bit left hence why the share price is up but hasn't rocketed too much. Think we'll see the 20s when the deal is completed. JR in early Feb too which should add to the positivity. Sentiment matters a lot on AIM.

I can't imagine much appetite to sell at 11p on that news but we will see. The uncertainty is already factored into the current price considerably.

Great news today. Glad to see it is nearly done and progress has been made, even though it isn't being complete in Q4. 100% guarantee and ministerial approval is a clear sign of confidence.

Glad to hear no warrants too, I was expecting some.

Expect a lot of panicky FUD today from names we haven't seen for a while from those with a short or those wanting to get back in.

They could also post it next week Stokey. As far as I'm aware the only trading updates they have to legally give are the 12 month and 6 month accounts that we typically get in June and September. The idea that PIs won't be glued to the markets tomorrow when expecting news and they may miss it is a myth, hence the 40% drop on opening last year. The idea of burying bad news might hold some truth for large caps, as I can't imagine many "in the city" will be following the markets too closely tomorrow.

That's me done for the day here. No point responding to FUD all day. Save the energy for debating the content of the trading update tomorrow.

Hebridean9 are you trying to say we are "struggling" to get a finance deal because Riverstone have security over their loan? The point of the new deal is to pay that loan off. Presumably Riverstone want their money back and hindering any new finance deal would be counter productive to that. Maybe things just take time.

Look on the bright side, we got through the entirety of 2023 without needing the new finance deal or a placing to plug finance gaps. Clearly the cashflow can't be as bad as some make out. JW wasn't lying all of the times he has stated there's no rush, no matter how impatient we all have been as shareholders (or not in your case). I see that as one positive to take from the delays. The other positive is that interest rates are likely to drop faster than first thought so maybe waiting has been smart after all.

Is anyone "in the city" actually investing in HARL Wyndtum? Last year we got trading update on the Friday half day and it didn't make one bit of difference to how the market responded. I think we will get it tomorrow but I don't think it will be bad on the same level as the one last year. We will miss revenue target by 10-20% as they stated weeks ago but I think that will be the extent of the bad news, unlike last year where we missed it by more than half followed by a list of other bad news.

As for the finance deal, JW is certainly running out of time in Q4 unless it will be announced alongside the trading update. JW also loves an intra day RNS let's not forget.

Let's be honest here, neither HARL or CPI have been a good investment this year. Likewise with dozens of other shares. If we want to be picky with timescales we could say CPI is down nearly 50% on a 9 month chart. On a 21 month chart since I first dabbled in CPI in March 2022 it is flat. Likewise I am about flat on HARL, having had some great 5-6p buys cancelled out by some stupid 20+ buys. The market is all about timing. Think we all want better than how these are performing and I hope both recover in 2024.