Member Info for Xenor

You should definitely listen to all sides Broomtree. The trouble is every share on the market - every board on this website - all will have several people exactly like Consuela warning people not to invest for a multitude of reasons. Some shares fail so of course sometimes these posters will get it right.

That said - all my failed investments over the years have had two things in common. Bad leadership and loss making. This is certainly a combination to avoid in future. In hindsight, the way JW handled the failure to win the Scilly contract should have been a giant red flag. But if I could invest in hindsight I'd be rich.

Trouble is (like many) I got sucked in with the idea that UKEF finance was nailed on, and even if the leadership wasn't the best there was a path to profitability in sight. Few could have guessed that JW had screwed the finances so bad that UKEF would say no.

I get the impression he isn't happy with what the new BOD members are up to. Still silence from the company on what is actually happening.

"IM isn't even a business. It's nothing apart from a hole in the ground on some farm land."

That's still more than a lot of companies on AIM have.

I think it will be sold off on the cheap unfortunately. Without the ML its value has decreased quite a bit.

Let's not turn this into an argument over shorts, it's clearly the least important thing right now.

My point was referring to the daily posts on here about shareholders getting wiped out. I agree it's a valid opinion to have given the situation, but you can tell the genuine from those who have a motive quite easily. Not naming any names and I didn't actually have you in mind but why am I not surprised you're the one responding? Don't answer that, I'm not continuing the conversation.

Riverstone need this company to keep operating to have any hope of getting their $140m back. I expect restructuring to happen - non core assets sold or shut down, lots of redundancies to reduce the wage bill, some share dilution and some amount of debt to remain that is manageable. 2025 is likely to just be FSS and ship repair work and rebuild from there.

As the RNS stated the accounts can't be done until the restructuring is completed. It's true that there is a 6 month deadline on suspension but I would expect this to be completed before then. The Riverstone loan as it stands is due to mature around the same time the suspension expires and the new directors have shown no intention that the company is going to default on the loan.

Those hoping for a wipe out are clearly holding shorts.

Every share on LSE has derampers. Yes listen to them when they put up constructive arguments - I even debated with TW and his gang on ADVFN many a time. But at the end of the day you have to do your own research and draw your own conclusions on how things will pan out otherwise you wouldn't invest in anything.

That said, trading certainly seems more rewarding than investing in these markets. Every AIM share I have ever looked at has only gone down over the longterm with quite a few going bust.

The previous government are partially to blame. Stringing the company along for a year and a half over UKEF finance when we could have signed alternative deals in the meantime.

There were warnings signs back in February when Kevan Jones questioned the 100% UKEF guarantee that perhaps the original 80% deal had been turned down and then the process restarted in January for 100% as seemingly nothing happened on finance in H2 2023. I'm starting to think that's how it played out. Maybe instead of asking the company to apply for a 100% deal JW should have been encouraged to take alternative finance. As others have said there were other deals on the table - JW mentioned this in an LSE interview last summer.

It's unforgivable that JW then went on to borrow $15m for a vanity project when finances appear to have been tight. He wrongly assumed UKEF guarantee was a given and started spending the money before it arrived. That's irresponsible financial management and it seems no one on the board tried to stop it.

Lesson learned here: never trust an AIM CEO.

We were told that accounts hadn't been posted because they couldn't agree on revenue recognition. Now we are being told it's because the company isn't a going concern. What's going on?

The government and previous government have clearly shafted the company but JW needs to take some responsibility for his actions over the past year. He seemed to lose the plot when IOSSC gave their new build contract to a rival. His departure looked inevitable regardless of the financial situation.

The only way those two sites are staying open is if they are given contracts. Losing the Falklands contract is a massive blow. Unfortunately I am expecting these two sites to be sold off now with job losses.

Sad news. I thought this contract would have been confirmed following the funding announcement last week. Priorities clearly weren't right here ever since the Scilly contract was lost.

Nice to have the £20m loan confirmed. Accounts should be their next priority I would have thought.

I figured the ferry was doomed, I suspect that was JW's downfall.

I'm surprised we haven't heard anything about the Riverstone loan yet considering:

"These alternative financing arrangements are expected to close within the next few days."

10 days ago. That old "expect" again.

Fair enough. I had it chalked down as forming part of this year's 200m revenue but maybe I am wrong.

Wasn't this contract due to start in H2?

"£120 million over a two-year period, with works on the project expected to commence this year."

Needs signing off soon. It will be a big part of next year's revenue too along with FSS.

Instead of wild speculation to the negative when people are nursing losses perhaps it would be wise to wait until the RNS arrives with the details of the new £20m Riverstone loan. How that is handled will give a decent indicator of what to expect going forward.

The simple fact is that Riverstone have a far greater chance of getting their $115m plus £20m back by way of the company trading its way out of this mess with competent management than from breaking the company up and selling it. They will sell the bad bits like the ferry but that's good.

I expect new loan to be signed in the next couple of days, accounts to be finalised following that and relisted by August with accounts. What happens afterwards is key.

Agree with Phillip and Si here.

He's no white knight, just a vulture looking to get the company on the cheap.

One thing is for sure with HARL going forward is that you need to keep a constant eye on the FT, Telegraph and Times for news as we will hear news there before an RNS.

Small error in my post, the proposed loan was £200m not $200m.

The cart was definitely put before the horse. Setting up Scilly Ferries with a $15m loan was financially irresponsible given the state of the finances. JW clearly did that on the assumption the $200m loan was nailed on and not far away - spending the money before it arrived. Was the KMS purchase necessary? Was setting up H&W Technologies necessary? Electric tugs? The near purchase of IOSSC? Expanding into the US at that point in time?

In hindsight it's almost like the wheels started coming off after losing the Scilly contract and these should have been red flags. However I too thought the $200m loan was nailed on and not far away so it was easier to ignore.

I suspect this is a big reason that JW paid the ultimate price. I think Arun will eventually go as well. Getting rid of both at the same time was likely too much change. Riverstone must take some responsibility too - why they thought lending the company another $15m to set up a ferry service given the situation was a good idea is baffling. I guess they too assumed the $200m loan was nailed on.

My biggest argument for this not going into administration and being dismantled and sold is that the proceeds would not cover the $115m debt. Yet here they are about to increase that to $135m. That would be stupid of them if administration was their plan.

The plan appears to be to streamline the business, cut non core costs and get rid of non core assets. Those assets can be sold, the staff will be off the wage bill and efficiencies can be made elsewhere. Anything loss making gone. That's my guess. It's crucial that the Falklands contract is signed off as 2025 revenues depend on it.

At 8p a lot of this is already priced in and it may fall further when suspension is lifted. However if the new CEO can make this company more efficient and streamlined then the share price will rebound even if there is dilution involved as long as it isn't severe.

For me the big uncertainty is how the new CEO and Rothschild will recapitalise and streamline the business. This strategy needs to be laid out at the earliest opportunity. Until we have details this is high risk.

As a side note now is not the time for certain posters to be gloating about being right about JW. A lot of people are sat on big losses here worried they may lose the rest. Have some dignity.