Member Info for Xenor

In a normal market I would expect new contracts to have a positive impact on the share price. Like why wouldn't we? Assuming a 20% margin (which is at the lower end) for a 100m contract (lower end again) that is a profit of 20m, which is higher than our current market cap. In a normal market I would expect some of that to be priced in and the share price to move accordingly.

This is what worries me about AIM. It's not functioning as a market should. It's all good saying things will be different post finance, but will they? Or is that just going to be another trader spike? The catalyst we want is IIs and HNWIs buying shares as they tend to hold longer than a day or two. Finance may be the trigger for that. One would hope anyway.

As I keep saying, this is a problem with AIM in general. HARL isn't the only one suffering due to market conditions. Many shares are struggling on AIM, even profitable companies that aren't raising cash. There's just not enough investors to prop up the share prices.

I also disagree with the idea that there will be a placing post finance. I'd never rule it out as they could pay a decent chunk of debt off by raising at say £1 in the future in a few years time. But I would be incredibly annoyed if they did so at anything under that as it's just not worth it for the amount they would get. I would rather sell IM if that's the goal.

Looks over priced to me compared to other shares on the market. Got almost twice as much debt as HARL and 13 times the market cap. Based on that I could easily see sub 10p here before it turns around.

+3.5m market cap from a 100-120m contract is a pump and dump these days? Give over! Share price is barely up 10% in the past month.

I base my view on the original JR only taking a couple of months for decision when you exclude the summer break, and that there are less issues in this JR. However there are multiple judges this time so it could be argued that it will take longer.

So whilst I did indeed say Q1, I reckon it will be towards the end of this month. However it wouldn't surprise me if we don't see it until April. Not fussed either way, finance is the big one here and if IM takes a few weeks or a month longer than my original estimate it doesn't really matter.

We must be due a Scilly update. I know we've had lots of information recently through Facebook and radio interview but nothing official.

Was this not expected? Been saying for months that it would drop on March results, that much was obvious and it's why the share price never recovered. I think it will hit new lows but there may be a buying opportunity before August.

I just find it all hilarious. People crying out for news for months and then when news arrives people are crying "we're getting news this means there's a placing on the way!". Of course it's not the same people crying both ways, but still amusing.

Yes let's place at 20m market cap, get us a few million at 8p. Might buy us a few sheets of steel to complete a few barges. Then what?

It's just following the usual pattern of win contract/big news, followed by shorts opening, talk of placings, new blog posts with yet another date when the cash will run out (still to come!).

I imagine it will all stop when finance is sorted and these vultures find a new share to play with.

🤡

RNS are like buses here. I remember the same happening last year where we got multiple in a row. Finance on top would be lovely.

The initial value seems small but it's significant as it implies more orders to come from this contract.

"signed a five-year Master Services Agreement for the fabrication of large structures with a global oil services company"

"The Company has now received its first purchase order"

Good win for Arnish.

We've had slow and steady, it still gets dumped at the end of it. I don't care if it gets there fast or slow as long as it gets there, but it needs the catalysts to hold on to the rise.

Stokey, whilst I agree the ramping on here is getting too much, the share price did rocket from high 5s to 27p on anticipation and awarding of the FSS contract preferred bidder status. I would have expected more than a 2p rise on the RNS today given that represents around +4m of market cap, but we are still pre finance and that ruins any rise.

No one knows what fair value is here given the variables such as debt and future potential. But I'm sure we all agree this can multiply over a realistic time period once catalysts are hit such as finance, first profit, main market, IIs taking positions etc. Those expecting 300% tomorrow are dreaming, the same ones who were posting about FSS alone taking it to £1 whilst selling in the 20s.

Yeah eventually we start making a profit, we start talking about moving to main market and this will get the IIs back on board.

Just random PIs. Some probably bought for a trade this morning and selling them back since the share price didn't rocket.

AIM is broken, as I keep saying. There's not enough PIs to value these companies anywhere close to what they're worth.

Different company now Si. We actually have the resources to execute contracts of this size these days. Assuming finance closes of course.

Very nice. As I kept saying still plenty of time to win contracts that will start in H2.

I imagine any tug purchase is delayed pending the finance deal, which no doubt JW expected to be done by Christmas when announced.

I have to wonder why I'm taking on all the risk investing in small caps when large caps are doing so well. BAB has nearly bagged since July. It's not just HARL, small caps in general are struggling right now.

You're like a broken record Hebridean9. I reckon you'll be gone and never to be seen again the second the deal is signed off.