Member Info for Xenor

IOSSG's failure will be down to nothing but greed. So desperate to hold on to their monopoly that they turn down public money in favour of building the ferries in Vietnam. I've no sympathy for the company, but I do feel for the lower paid workers who had no say in these matters and will likely lose their jobs when the company collapses. Maybe we can employ them on our services. Be interesting to see where this is all at by the end of the year.

AIM is broken. The good companies will leave for a better exchange or get taken private. The bad companies will dilute to oblivion, wither and die. JW has already expressed his interest to move off of AIM at some point. Could see it happening in the next couple of years.

That is indeed a good summary. It sounds like JW knows what he is doing with his entry into the Scilly ferry market. I'm still on the fence as to whether it was a good move to make, but if the freight is lucrative it will cover any shortfalls of the passenger service in the short term until we become more established there. Steamship company sound like they are on big trouble.

I was expecting sells today. There was a guy on Telegram on Friday complaining about the finance deal dragging on and saying he was going to sell this week. Then he left the group and his posts disappeared.

Unfortunately that's what we're dealing with here. Every week/day people are getting fed up and cutting their losses, even at this low. But that's why we are at 10p to begin with.

One would expect that once finance is over the line this trend will reverse. Problem is will a 10p seller buy back higher or have we lost that investor forever?

It's 20 months since my first buy. Share price is down around 30% in that time. Certainly timed this wrong, but without a crystal ball it's nearly impossible to time it right.

Broomtree seems to be turning into Hebridean9. Whatever helps your trade I guess.

Got to spend money to grow. I'm not convinced expanding into ferries is the way to go but if he can make it profitable then I don't see the issue.

Of course it's a catalyst. Without it the company risks running out of cash, and the new deal should mean far less interest on the debt which means we break even easier.

I certainly wouldn't mind some more shares at sub 10p. Hopefully the naysayers can deramp some more before finance arrives.

You still pay CGT when you bed and ISA. Although in this case there's none to pay as the share price is rock bottom. I always fill my ISA before putting cash in a general share dealing account. Next tax year you only get 3k CGT allowance which won't be hard to hit on any decent share.

Surely you'd fill your ISA at the start of a tax year rather than the end to avoid the capital gains tax if the share price were to rocket.

Thing is NoFear where it is "heading" keeps getting pushed back. Remember the discord ramps of March 2022 of sell at 49p after it bottomed at 22p? How wrong were those predictions? I had thought H1 2024 might be the turning point but following that set of results I'm not expecting that any more. I am fairly confident that this will not see 20p again this year, but it may do next year. I think it will range between 12-17p for a while.

You shouldn't worry with your average, but there's many others here higher than that nursing big losses who are stuck hoping this turn around eventually happens. If it does, it's a Cineworld style rise when it multi bagged from 20p to 120p. That's what I want to catch, but I don't want more money sat around doing nothing for years as has happened elsewhere. In the short term it's a trading share. Buy in the 12/13s, sell in the 15/16s.

Too much information is sometimes a bad thing. JW should have just stated they intend to refinance the Riverstone debt without giving any timescales. Things always take longthan expected.

People with a negative outlook will always find something to moan about though.

NoFear, I missed my 13p entry last week. I'm currently travelling so it's a bit difficult to catch prices when the markets open at 2am. I didn't want to set a buy order because I prefer to make the call myself. Sometimes it looks like it will go lower.

Biggest lesson I have learnt with investing is to time entries better. Nearly every share I have bought has dropped following the buy, whether immediately or weeks or months later. Most recently I bought MMAG at 8.7p in January thinking it was a steal at that price... look at it now. You are doing the same with CPI. Falling knife investment decisions. Tread carefully.

Revenue targets certainly need work. When they can't accurately predict due to not knowing the outcome of tenders then they should give a range. 150-200m should have been given for 2024 for example then no one complains if we hit 180m. Now that's we're expecting 200m people will complain if we fall short again and ignore the growth on previous year. Just as people will complain if 80m is posted for 2023 despite it being treble 2022's revenue.

Think what you like Findingtheta, but I have a lot of respect for JW and Arun if they have turned down a finance deal already despite the market crying out for it, in favour of pursuing a much better deal that will save the company many millions over the years.

Of course the proof will be in the pudding when the deal arrives, and whether the delays were worth it. I think it will be.

14p appears to be the top of the short term range just as 17p was in Q3 until the breakout to 20p+. From that 17p it fell to the 15s before it took off. If the same were to happen again then it will likely fall to high 11s at the bottom. Think I will be looking to buy around 12p.

There should really be quarterly updates, even if they don't include the financials. As we didn't get one end of Q4 or beginning of March I don't see one until the audited 2023 results are out now.

Market has already reacted to the November revenue downgrade and is expecting 80m rather than 100m. Anything more than 80m is a nicety at this point. But no doubt some will act surprised if it helps their trading ideas. Expecting any shortfall to make up the 200m 2024 revenue as happened last year. It's not great but I'm being realistic.

Best case is we get a revenue upgrade for this year but even with the Falklands contract starting in H2 and the cruise ship work I don't think we're at 200m yet. I think Scilly ferry was perhaps priced in when the original 200m was stated. That's the problem with giving estimates a year ahead and probably why we don't have guidance for 2025 yet. It's a hard business to give guidance for when you don't know if you're winning X or Y tender.

AR's current focus is the financial deal. I doubt we'll get 2023 results until late May or June.

Broomtree, I have actually thought about your question as I believe it is important for all to consider the risks. Unlike most of the doom mongers who see a deal collapsing as a wipeout for shareholders or the company going bust, I see the plan B as accepting a worse deal. Probably something along the lines of the Riverstone deal but for more money, more warrants but a slightly better interest rate. The company would then have to stick with that until profitability allows for better refinancing. It would still remove the uncertainty around the finances but the share price would have limited growth for the next year or two until profits are RNSed.

I am still expecting the UKEF deal to come through in Q1.

Si, I was talking manpower capacity. Yard capacity was obviously there. I think we'd have the yard capacity to do Titanic 2 as well, but not convinced we could ramp up the manpower quick enough for 2025 as we're still ramping up for FSS.

Also I was under the impression FSS ships will be built one at a time so that the first and second get into service faster.