Member Info for wyndrum

so the previous minor 122p reistance/support has developed to have abit more weight.

Looks like a trading range at present. 121-129 which is about 5% so no surprise as that s a fair profit for a day if timed correctly... you pays your money.....

The 128p price will be the first one that needs to go so I would expect it to be a bit choppy.

The strength of any rise will be how long it takes to go through theta target price

DGU, if its not rocket science, then why did you buy into a company that had never achieved that?

I can't alter BoD's but its more interesting to talk to fellow investors and find out how they are successful and what stratagies they have that work.

What comes across to me DGU is your total lack of any understanding of how any business works and the pressures they face.

It seems you have an incredibly simplistic view based on no actual experience of working in a managerial role with pressures below and above your position.

You base your conclusions on little evidence but are unshakeable & strident in their veracity.

Yet you bought more after the June RNS.

Many here have tried to explain a more plausible likely chain of events to arrive at this destination. But at no time do you acknowledge the potential for a different scenario.

That is your perogative of course, but unless one's mind is always open to new ideas and thoughts then actions and the results are likely to repeat themselves.

For instance if you insist on believing that the problem is soley down to an inept BoD then you would presumably buy (too much) stock in another similar high risk company should the opportunity arise and presumably be as surprised and disappointed as you are now, when the same outcome followed.

I guess the first thing is, is that there is a purpose to it. AVCT have not done gone down this path for no reason.
Therefore I surmise this is a positive thing.
What could be the outcomes?
Well, the point is is not normally in itself cash generative because by its very design it is to help loss making drug development be less costly.
I presume it could be developed to have other applications but in the meantime AVCT get some help in the initial finance stages, given money is tight and then use that tech to a more profitable area of medicine (Like viagra whereas the heart drug was ultimately used to help blood flow to other parts of the body... i know it wasn't an Orphan drug, I am just highlighting there might be profitable applications outside what it is offered to do in its orphan state.)

If/when it gets approval 2 things might/should happen. It will be rns'd and with it an explanation of the benefits to AVCT and the general public and wider visibility in the US. (Which is crucial imo)

Historically some companies have seen a SP rise on the back of these developments which then might start to tie in to a further cash raise at a higher SP (baring other forms of financing AVCT), as well as greater US market awareness of this company making it easier to raise whatever funds potentially are necessary.

Its approval could date wise, tie in very closely to the end of this part of the trial too, which again would be shining a spotlight on this small company to a much wider commercial market.

The one less positive (but certainly not negative) reasoning I can see, is that AVCT want to sell out, rather than go it alone, so no cash raise but having proved the concept sell now rather than 5 years time or whatever.

That should still be very good news for shareholders but I see a SP a lot higher in 5 years time rather than a buy out price (whatever it is this year/early next)

But that scenario has its own pile of caveats and various potential bumps in the road.

First things first ......this looks to me, whatever stems from it, either very good or better. (imo dyor etc)

DGU, as its quiet, what would your reaction be if on Monday an RNS says "after tough negotiations the Eve BOD recommend a sale of EVE at £8m.."

Would CC et al, all still be useless in your opinion?

See3, I was surprised to see how "positive" the potential of an orphan drug is and like you wondered why it was not RNS'd.

I guess the assumption has to be it is not worthy of greater recognition?

Still odd though...

and also from google:

"How do orphan drugs make money?
Pharmaceutical companies are seeking “orphan” status to develop blockbuster drugs used to treat other common medical conditions. They reap the benefits of orphan status – subsidies, tax credits, and waivers – while generating billions of dollars in profits."

From Google....

"Is orphan drug designation a big deal?
While there are significant benefits from gaining orphan drug status, this designation is not intended for drug companies to recover all the costs of drug development, but rather as a cost reduction and regulatory streamlining mechanism to encourage and provide special assistance to companies that develop drugs for ...6 Apr 2020"

I know.... sorry....

well argued

or the algo is not accurate enough to show the "correct" relationship and the assumptions you are making is based on a false premise.

Some buys and sells are not recorded in real time so why look at the data when it is unreliable, subject to error and not fully reported and from there make a decision on the "real" reason behind the SP movement?

Surely after all this time of you being confounded by what you see and what actually happens (the SP), you might have concluded the above by now?

It seems you have convinced yourself that every move down is always Mkt Manipulation by someone or other

"And don't get me started on charting, which as far as I can see in the context of AVCT is almost entirely useless.
A process of taking the average of historical outcomes across a broad portfolio of companies and industries to predict the SP movement of an almost entirely unique small bio company developing entirely unique science."

Except its not.

If anything AVCT is a good company to chart because of the "uncertainty of outcomes". This is because it is a great example of being able to stoke the fluctuating emotions of fear and greed that drive most investment decisions. And crowds are often reliably predictable.

The downside of using charts with AVCT is its market size, leaving it open to market manipulation outside the pressures of normal supply of buys and sells., and sometimes the spread which can push the mechanics of trading (stops, etc) beyond tolerable levels but generally the SP movement is sufficient in terms of scale ie 5% a day, is not unusual.

The argument against using charts is the misconception that it is predicting an outcome. It does not pretend to do that. the SP at any given time has its 2 choices. All TA does is to say what, based on previous similar situations is most likely to follow.

The other argument is to confuse the company with the SP. They are 2 different things. People buy in the belief/hope the SP will rise higher than the market, at any given time, believes. Its all about people's actions and reactions and precious little to do with the company.

So DGU,
Based on the 7 stages of grief it looks like your still stuck on no. 5?
Denial. ...
Anger. ...
Bargaining. ...
Depression. ...
Acceptance and hope. ...
Processing grief.

Steve, I think it is just a straight forward fall based on a later time for the result of the trial. It looks like the market was hoping/gambling on balance, for not needing the the 4th DE.

So, some money has gone elsewhere. As we all know, most people buy on the expectation of news before the actual news is released.

Hel, I think you have hit the nail squarely on the thumb when you acknowledge that it is about "risk appetite" (or as I would class it, "risk/reward")

The only bit I would take issue with is the 14p price on announcing a drill date. I see no real evidence for that figure.

I think its closer to 11p based on the last few months where it was much more likely and expected to have a drill date this year.

With the down playing of the rig and its repairs/audit I think there will be still a lot of nervousness in the market about the outcome of a single drill producing the results all here hope for.

The risk as I see it is very high. PT I think is correct in his analysis and I share his reluctance to increase my modest stake any further until there is more certainty. (I'd rather buy in at 50p on a successful drill with the likelyhood of nailed on appreciation then buy at 7p with the risk of losing it all. which is why as you state its all about risk appetite.

Right now it feels it close to the "wreckless" part of the scale (imo DYOR etc)

there are a myriad of reasons to sell. One might simply be a need for cash to pay for higher outgoings?

Chartwise 128p is a resistance level and the next one below that is a support around 122p.

This might just be a retrace to a support level as yesterday it went down to to test it. (Esp as the market is having a rough time of it today.)

Anyway, fwiw I don't see any reason to be particularly concerned from a chart/SP perspective

Oh, its just when you said "it's all about money to you isn't it wynbore, you sad git." as though it wasn't for you.

I too have money saved and have it in various places to make money and not just in stocks . I have no idea what superior point you were trying to make. Still you got a opportunity to be rude to a stranger which seems a bit sad don't you think.....

MrA so to cut to the chase you buy ONLY to make money too, (you may have hold a particular stock longer then I do, but you only do that because you think it will make you MORE money.

I understand that you limit your choice of companies based on what you consider to be ethical, but unless you were involved in the IPO's its a bit academic and has no positive bearing on the companies in question.

And I see your argument too, I guess the thing for me is, the difference is a bit hair splitting.

Take our own Sujood, (who remember always gets loads of recs and is generally but not universally i know, thought to be a bit of fun and a Joker). But, he posts with the tone of someone in the know (particularly and often during the LFT period) and may have influenced people to buy at over double the price here? Is he any better than the shorting Scum? and if he isn't, then why did he/does he get so many recs here?

You are assigning motive to the shorters that you don't actually know. To them it may simply be financial and what the company does is of no interest to them. It is to you and therefore you take a more passionate view of their antics, but that may not be their motivation at all?

Morals and making money often (always?) come into conflict sooner or later.

This is just an observation looking at both sides given, as I said, that shorting is a fact of investing life.