Member Info for wyndrum

for somebody who berates any comment on the daily movement in the SP you don't half post a lot about it......

blimey ...you REALLY are lonely, aren't you.....

Been there D....I imagine we all have to one degree or another....

All any of us can do is to try and learn from it all and do things differently next time... (Ah hindsight.........)

dai, presumably when the engine misfires and there is little power coming through....?

D, Kenya is historical for me. sold the remaining lot about 15 minutes ago. seemed stable and no bounce was coming

If ever I needed reminding to take profits when they are staring me in the face this was it. (and at least I did with the majority)

This is the advantage of not becoming emotionally involved with the company in question.

Everyone is different but for me the longer i hold a stock the more I do get caught up in it which is why I think, i still post here. I am just waiting for a sign to get back in (which is pretty dumb objectively). Fortunately I can hold off with this one now.

The hardest bit for me Yanis has historically been when I wanted to offload I couldn't.

That increases the risk profile massively and is a huge deterrent to would-be buyers.

This is just a personal observation but this stock seems very perceptible to manipulation.

There was a 30% rise just a couple of days ago and if memory serves there were some very large moves upwrds before bad news shortly followed.

I guess the lesson on this one is: Beware, and don't whatever happens, over commit or get get blineed by "Potential" gains and greed. (just my opinion dyor etc etc)

Pl I don't care...ok... you carry on making stuff up... if thats what gets you through your lonely days.

For the benefit of any others that read this I have said countless times, TA is an odds based game. It does not, because it cannot, predict the future.

As different levels are reached or breached so different figures come into play.

I go on what the close is. So although right now the low of 97/98p is back in play as a support I will wait to see how this pans out.

geo political stuff is a bit tricky for us mere mortals. If Putin went in the next few weeks (doubtful) then it depends on who replaces him, it has to be someone very pro-west for the west to relax sanctions quickly. They would have to completely pull out of Ukraine. Also doubtful, imo.

Without knowing where EVE is in terms of sales, cashflow and profit margin (or lack of it), its impossible to make any judgement of how much time they have. I think any global development will be too late for EVE.

Superficially with the silence, I personally think its more likely than not, that there are no talks going on. With higher costs putting on extra pressure on margins I would think the position has deteriorated more quickly than the original June RNS.

The only EVE brand surviving, outcome I can see right now in this fog is that DFS could buy EVE, but as they have not moved yet I imagine if they are going to, it will be when they are in admin. If that happened I would not be surprised for CC to probably have a senior role within that arm of DFS.

PT, "WHY DONT YOU FIND A PARTNER, SPLIT COSTS AND BOOK A NORMAL RIG AND DO IT LIKE EVERYONE ELSE..."

I have a feeling, based on the fact DM is not an idiot, that he is so sure that this will come up trumps he does not want to split the long time profits with anyone. That would explain putting off raising any money until he absolutely has to and if he can do that when a discovery is confirmed, then he will be in the driving seat of negotiations of that fund raise or maybe just taking on debt. I think it wants to be a producer and has a longer time frame then we have right now.

So, he is doing everything he can to eke out the limited funds to get a discovery done within current cash flow.

Now that is just my guesswork obviously but I agree with you that I expect the Jan feb dates to slip. I think these were mooted with so many caveats allowing the dates to be missed but had to say them because it made such a hullabaloo about a 22 drill campaign then missing it by 1 month (jan '23) does not sound so bad.

One to forget about for a while I think.

D, I can only see LSE but in total it only a couple of thou... hardly enough to move the dial?

gmcc, it was not a personal criticism of your history with AVCT, just an exploration of different strategies to achieve the same goal, ie to make money by picking stocks.

I use myself as an example not to big myself up but simply as first hand experience and therefore not to generalise.

If this did not work (for me) then i would not be using this particular method.

I understand (but I am not sure everyone here does), that no method is full proof and all have their risks and drawbacks.

You use value investing (as I think most here do) as a method to try and secure the greatest return. But lets not be in any doubt, you think that will make you the most money. Its no different to what I am attempting but using a different system. I honestly don't know why it is so contentious to air these different styles when Value Investing has its own drawbacks, such as:
How long will you hold the stock? When will you know when to sell, both if it is profit or when it is in loss?
What were the expectations of return when bought? How do you know when the SP does represent good value? The longer it is held the more chance the USP is superseded?

You yourself mentioned that in hindsight it was overvalued at 275p yet you did not sell? but if you had and then bought in again lower down would that not have been just as true to your investment strategy? Or would you now be a "trader".

And most importantly, would it matter?

Yes DTW, lets not, while we are waiting, discuss investment strategies on an investment BB.

I happen to think this stock, and its SP history is quite a good learning curve for us all.

From the over zealous AS interviews, time delays, to the large potential gains that disappeared, all are experiences to form future views on in similar situations.

And thats fine gmcc, I have no argument with that strand of decision making. (i just don't think it is reliable enough for me to pick the right ones)

But the SP is only a snapshot of where the "market" sees the value.

Here is a fair question I think. What did you think of the SP/mkt cap when it was 275p based on the LFT potential income? Was the market right or wrong? were you thinking that the SP was still undervalued at 275p?

So its not a question of being confused, just another way of trying to make money. I, simply try to profit from the generally predictable nature of the market over much shorter timescales and typically am looking for much smaller gains.

hank, "I'm just 100% not interested at all in his so called science of crowd psychology. I'd say that most here aren't either."

Well, its not "my so called" science However this BB displays characteristics of the very thing you believe does not exist. " Search for: Why do people behave differently in crowds? see below from Google:

What causes herd mentality?
In behavioral finance, herd mentality bias refers to investors' tendency to follow and copy what other investors are doing. They are largely influenced by emotion and instinct, rather than by their own independent analysis.4 Feb 2022"

Anyway, works for me.

gmcc,

This interesting: when you say "...confuses SP with potential Asset value ." What do you mean? Do you mean for months and maybe years the market has incorrectly valued AVCT? Has the market ever valued (iyo), correctly?

If the market is wrong how do you know you are right? and when do you expect to be right?

If assuming the trial is successful and the SP is 1000p per share, will that still be wrong? (I am guessing it will be iyo).

So understanding that the market will most likely have a differing view to the individual is not to be confused at all.

What i think is actually going on here with most holders, is that they hope the SP will hit a certain figure (that works for them), and then sell out. What the market may or may not think is irrelevant.

Strangy I use charts to time exit and entry. Mostly the trades last for a few days and sometimes weeks.

Occasionally if I see a share move up quickly early in the day I take a punt and jump on board as that sort of momentum, if caught early usually pays off. The trick is not to get too greedy and cash out once it looks like it has topped out. (HE1 was such an example yesterday, EVE was another a couple of weeks ago that generated 28% profit by the time I got out. SMDS has gone up about 6% since I decided to buy last week but currently I am waiting for hopefully 300p to come around before deciding whats next with that pot).

Starangy, I don't see much happening here until later this month when there might/should be a trading update.

So I routinely take money out of various holdings for a potential short term gain in others and return it to the original stock.

Because AVCT shows potentially the greatest long term rewards I have built it up to my largest holding overall, so its the obvious one to borrow from for short term trades.

Its no where as nearly complicated as you make out.

I bought more of HE1 yesterday after my initial purchase and that bit of it is slightly underwater at the moment but I will wait until it goes up (or take a loss if it falls below a certain level.)

So I can take a long term view on this as well as carry on trading away because I am never over committed in any stock I hold and am always keen to take quick gains if and when they arise.

Just bear in mind PL75 kicked this off on a thread I started talking about and asking for some guidance on the trial by taking it off topic and having a dig. Then ripley joins in, then it gets to where we are now.

For goodness sake, it these clowns and the other very usual suspects that join in, that ruin the this BB. If they stopped their constant, stupid, disruptive behaviour towards me and others, this BB would be better place.

I really don't care what you think, I don't post a record of every trade I do.

it seems to me you will believe anything that anyone says that casts me in a bad light and nothing else.

That bias and wish to believe in things that you have no evidence of, is not a helpful trait in this game. imo, obviously, don't want to sound smug, or spreading fud, or being negative, or anything else you want to invent or imagine.