Member Info for wyndrum

Hi James,

You think they will have nothing much to say on the 29th of Nov? or just that they will have no initial readings yet a couple of weeks into the drill?

FWIW and I am off for the weekend, but your ideas of witty back and forth really are not (which is amusing when you say I for instance have no self awareness), its just crude , always crass, and normally offensive insults based on any view you disagree with.

You wonder why this Bb has become boring? .... just look around at who you enjoy exchanging posts with. And then try and realise and see how you drive everyone else away.

So you win. well done, enjoy your victory. You have got your BB.

Yes, you would like to think there is a reason why this has been announced today.

The optimistic case could be some initial, early readings are positive allowing the date of confirmation to be set?

anyway, who knows its always a bit of a lottery.

Hi Ade, I don't think charts "predict" the future. They are just based on buyers and sellers previous actions to give a heads up as to what is most likely to happen next. Soi ts just odds based, which is why if you charts, you need to have tight stops on the occasions the opposite of what is expected happens.

...suggests MM's are having trouble getting stock, keeping a tight spread but slowly moving it up...if it can close above111p then that would be the first significant chart break out for a few weeks.

Although it is small steps right now, it has to start somewhere.

well, I like the risk reward on this one so have taken up the offer and asked for more. It remains to be seen what others do but its a bottom draw for 12 months I think but I look for steady appreciation. (I am hoping that this is the floor which if I am right reduces the risk considerably.

The different views are all what helps to make a market.

TP, I feel the same way. I use TA to try and time entry and exit and have been here before but this is now much further down the line now and various company projects are that closer to producing tangible results. And the SP at 4-5p seems to look very good value (imo)

I have been adding from 4.4p and to me, a move to at least 6p looks more likely than not.

Sorry to be so predictable (truly) but I just hope that you have learnt from this bad experience but your posts suggest (to me) that that is not the case. I try to think up different ways of seeing it from potentially EVE's POV to maybe accept that there may have been a different reality from the one that you can only see.

Do you think you will you do things differently next time?

" You do not just sit and watch 8.5 million disappear to must be nearing zero now and do nothing!"

What would you do if you were committed to certain overheads and you were unexpectedly put on part time work? You might go back to full time because you are told its temporary.

Would you use your savings while you tried to find another job? Or would you stop eating and turn the heating off put the house up for sale and try to move to a different cheaper part of the country.

Two things BAE is not too big too short given its indices that are routinely shorted... (good grief)

And what about supplying Ukraine against in this case Russia? Is that not a good thing? What if we were at war? would it be ok then to produce arms?

Life is not black and white

DR, I think your statement was pretty clear. You think that no one should short a company stock that is working on a beneficial product?

How do you feel about say.... an arms company such as BAe? They make weapons that kill people. Are they allowed to be shorted or should they not even exist?

No DR, I am not, I have said many times I do not have the facility to short.

If I see investment houses shorting the same stock I try to see it from their POV. What do they see that I can't? (lateral thinking maybe to see it differently and not get too caught up in just seeing what I want to see.)

I have posted here just recently that due to the muted reaction of the SP it was unlikely a further short had been taken out. (I was wrong) I do struggle to find a scenario that, having been successful with the original short, they have not cashed out yet.

Even if it were still concerns about funding the result of the trial will now come first and is therefore unlikely to depress the SP. Can the trial fail? well, I guess, but it is unlikely given the re****s thus far and also the other continued milestone payments suggest the tech is working there too.

Maybe its just a small hedge and they are starting to unwind their larger short?

Dr, I don't understand the sentiment in your post "Shorters that bet against a company like Avacta who are developing something that could save millions of lives deserve to get burnt"

They will only make money if the trial fails. If the trial fails then no one is going to be saved.

Whether they bet on it or not will make no difference to the outcome of the trial.

They are not wishing that millions will die. They are simply taking abet on that if the trial fails then the stock will fall.

But we are back to the confusion between the company and the SP.

"I think some knowledge on the subject or object you are buying is always helpful and will go towards NOT making an expensive mistake, irrispective of what it is."

I think some knowledge on the subject or object you are buying is always helpful and will go towards making an expensive mistake, irrispective of what it is.

However the level of understanding does not have to be that in-depth (imo)

I am not sure there is any need for an analogy because again its not a complicated premise that needs simplifyng.

In stocks generally the golden rule is not to bet/invest with more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

If one wants to take on high risk stocks (such as this one, where the outcome of the trial will be definitive on the SP one way or the other), then it makes sense to read the last 2 years of RNS's to get a feel and laymans understanding of what is trying to be achieved and the potential income if successful.

Its easy to see where a lot of PI's go wrong with investing as it is a form of gambling and is very addictive, so the golden rule is normally the first to go. Further mistakes then are compounded from there.

Its the gambling element that really stops any other analogy working. and as I say this particualr situation is not complex.

You buy a stock in the belief and hope it will rise from the level you bought in at. This one depends on the trial being successful. and thats it.

PAHOO, they did ask but agreed with you, that even for them, the risk was too high

"They’ve been short since July last year. I don’t think their researchers are keeping up to date with company news."

Well, considering they have done well from July common sense says they have not just randomly increased it without looking at the company.

Its a small increase and at the level they have actioned the short suggests they are perhaps not that confident?

The SP has moved down about 5% over the last week and its difficult to know what their target is or their timeframe.

This extra short might be a tree shake to try and spook the SP a little and trigger some momentum selling but it seems relatively robust at the moment.

Without knowing their thinking its difficult to see this one.

(Other shorts on companies are fairly easy to see and an argument can be made for why its been done but this one is currently a head scratcher.)

Its not short term funding (or does not appear to be so soon after the update). The lack of success in the trial is a possibility but again all the evidence suggests its is working (although to what extent we don't know), but if they really thought that was the reason I would have thought they would put more into the short than they did.

Even allowing for news to come of the relative success of the trial do they think the SP is overpriced? Again if they do, why be so timid?

I wonder if its more a mechanical thing? Some investment houses have to sell a successful stock because the increase in share price and therefore that company's value, distorts the percentage level in their overall portfolio?

Could it be the short has been successful enough that with the new relative low, the profit on their books has made them average down a bit to save them closing it out automatically rather than at a time of their choosing? (given what it might do to the SP if the market saw a reduction in the short?)

In any event, currently the market has not reacted adversely particularly to the news other than 100p is pretty disappointing given the potential for appreciation and the timeline for more than likely, good news.

Anyway, we shall see but it seems a damp squib to me. (famous last words...)

Its not a lack of self awareness, its simply I try and pick shares where I think the SP will rise sooner rather than later.

Many here are content to wait as long as it takes for this company to come good.

Thats fine but the SP is no further advanced than it was years and years ago. As the aim here is to increase wealth and time is finite, that long term approach does not work for me. So I have dropped in and out. Its just a different approach.

I don't ridicule the research here but I have simply asked on a couple of occasions over the YEARS, (given the SP has not moved). what benefit has it provided? Needless to say that question has never been answered.

My view is that PI's rarely get SP-moving info in front of the bigger players, so any info found tends to be "old" and the market has already priced the new info in.

There was a time ("The Zulu Principle" by Jim Slater) when on small specialist stocks that approach could win out but not in this digital instant info age. That edge that some PI's had has long gone.

But as always, God forbid we discuss investment strategy. Lets just pick a fight with whoever, and maintain we are right and the market is wrong.

You think I think I am always right and lack self awareness, but clearly you cannot see that your own narrow minded outlook and lack of any tolerance to a different view makes you the very epitome of the traits you criticise me for.

Have a good evening and lets hope for a better day tomorrow.

Ha ha, you are killing me, pls stop digging...

"Got any more share tips?"

I dunno, how about DVRG (sorry integumen as it was then), no, my mistake that was not me, that was you........ ha ha.

Anyway... NZ... great success, hung on while vaccines got ready. You know the vaccines that the market makers robbed us of 60p per share and according to you, wouldn't work anyway and couldn't stop transmission so were pointless...

Ha ha! It wasn't testing I was against (Its the reason I bought this stock in the first place you ....moron.....).
It was realising that AVCT had missed the opportunity which the SP was based on so it made sense to sell at that higher price, which I made have bored you and others that I was doing.

No, I was not a fan of lockdowns because I believed at the time the "cure" was more damaging than the illness. (How are deferred operations going in the NHS, much of a backlog? and DR's appointments and referrals, how many are expected to unfortunately die prematurely for those reasons?
(How did Sweden get on, the country that did not lock down and was not an island, by the way?)

Its not black and white as you like to make out and your version of events and stats are very selective.

And are you seriously comparing New Zealand (pop: 5m) with the UK being an international destination and business hub?

Still you are always right, I mean you still believe that china's reporting was truthful.