Member Info for wyndrum

Yes Prof, unexpected events will then "reset" the SP and from a chart perspective, new parameters and levels are made. Its a very dynamic and fluid way of trying to make money. Traders will alter their positions quickly as new levels are made. (Which I think some here don't always appreciate, expecting a "forecast" of weeks ago to be used as an example of how useless TA is for example.

LTBH will take that longer view with milestones projected and eventually reached and assumptions are made on the likely success.

Well, here we are again....Fingers crossed it can close above 36p today and (from a chart perspective)) it can move up...

sperenza you don't have to comment which is why i took a separate thread out. Whether you like it or not "trading" exists.

These are the typical parameters traders work by and look at.

By all means go LTBH but that is not the only type of investor out there.

And just remember every forecast you make under your terms of valuation is done on historical precedent of looking at similar companies.

TA is just looking at historical precedent on the SP. The logic is the same, but as I say you are not the only one to miss the blindingly obvious when dismissing TA.

If we close above 107p then it looks most likely 117p will come pretty quickly (It could be today)

I know ultimately we are talking many multiples from here but for some that sort of move (10%) in (potentially) a day or two does generate interest so we might start to get positive trading traction for a welcome change.

Normally traders will look to various targets so on the bull case, 117p would be the first with 130p next and then 142p.

well, its got interesting (at last!) sitting above 107p currently but as always (for me) its the close that is more relevant.

Certainly there is plenty of room with the RSI smack plum centre at around 50 for a move up.

jon, if that was your plan to start with then I would say ,yes then do it. (Otherwise what was the point of the plan.?)

Ade, it could go up more, first, of course but at some stage a pull back to 500-506p is on the cards (imo) if you felt like getting on board?

"... And sell the news is fine, but this could be the first domino so it just depends on your horizon, appetite for trading risk."

I completely agree.... (thats a worry for us both i imagine....

Well, I am not arguing we do nothing, just that whatever happens life still comes to an end and that the zealots solution is to cause people to die prematurely now in the hope future generations won't die of climate change.

(I would also say perhaps to make the point clearer, that most of the other life shortening events were forecasted by scientist who were overly pesimistic and ultimately all proved wrong. (I am not denyer by the way but simply highlight that actual events have not gone the way of the forecasts and have as I have got older wondered why govts of all stripes try and continually try and frighten the living crap out of me.)

I agree ripley but the point is, people don't wait for the news. They make a judgement what they think the news will be and then act accordingly. Things look very positive form our pov, and as a result we have all bought on the assumption the news will be good (or in fact gambling a bit that it will be even better than "good".)

I am not nor ever have argued that the release of actual news won't affect the SP but there is more to it than that. You have heard I am sure of the adage, buy on the rumour, sell on the news.

What that is saying is that people bought in on the expectation of good news which pushed the SP up, and then when the good news came, then sold to take their profit, (often causing a fall in the price).

This cycle is predictable, its not full proof but lets not go there. But when you made your predictions as you did last week (which i am not arguing about), did you look at what has happened before, the SP at the time and what made you think it would go this week prior to any news, if not the "predictable" cycle of buyers actions when soon to be expecting good news?

pb, I take it you are not that old only because the cuban missile crisis was a time when people really believed a third world nuclear war was about to take place literally any minute! (No next week, next month next year for us then).

And again, with the actual experience (rather than forecasts) Aids was going to wipe us all our as was the Ozone layer which was forecast to take 100 years plus to fix and in the meantime all life would severely be affected. (I think it was 12 years before it completely closed.)

So its not knew these impending catastrophes. And there will be more of that I am sure.....

Pdub, I get a bit concerned when people tell me how to live my life because in this example, I assume none are taking any flights abroad, use a car or indeed any mechanised transport, and have cut off their electric and gas supply nor buy any goods made in highly industrialised nations such as China and don't have jobs where they help produce throw away commercial items. And if not why not?

pb, not so much with the emotive language. Those old people who are apparently going to be "sacrificed" are only old today because of what has gone before.

Its not a question of not caring about younger generations , the next generation will have their own problems to resolve just like my generation did and continues to do.

Would life have been better without the combustion engine? (Ok, thats subjective), but motorised transport has led to emergency services arriving quicker than in the past, saving millions of lives, before we get into transport of food and goods improving life expectancy around the globe.

It may have been a 100 degrees in the UK this summer but there are plenty of civilised places on earth that have hotter summers than we do and its not a catastrophe.

And Mark, If a cow jumps in front of me I will try and swerve around it, (and in the 70's with colder winters it was forecast we (the planet) was going into an ice age and that would cause famine with crops having a shorter time to grow.)

I take the view that time is incredibly precious, do what you can and as much as you can, ,and enjoy it as much as you can cos it won't last long.

Don, "and a reminder of just how good this board can be when we aren't debating Wyn's charts, ultimately concluding that when it comes to AVCT, they are about as much use as Anne Frank's drum kit."

Ha ha very good....

Followed by: "My prediction is that takeover negotiations could occur swiftly, possibly prior to the year end."

So you can make and post a prediction and that's ok based on news that is yet to be revealed. Well done you.

Is it completely lost on you that charts are simply the graphical representation of people buying and selling , in most cases, IN FRONT OF NEWS being announced (not shouting just emphasising)?

A lot of posts this morning is about predicting what the SP might be like before Xmas? Whats the diff? all I add to it is the historical nature of the SP movement, which more often than not, repeats itself.

Anyway, I can see the hypocrisy even if you can't....

Ok pb, is it "natural" to have state of the art surgery or drugs to cure an illness that few years ago would have killed someone prematurely?

Its kind of my point, we live and at some point, we die. Its not that deep, its not that complicated.

I am not condoning any particular action only that it is just how humans go about their time on earth.

We have climate change now on the back of huge industry that over the years has extended billions of peoples lives by giving them improved living conditions and access to food and a better quality of life.

Had we not done that, yes (in theory) we would not have climate change, but at what human cost of premature death?

Which is why I think we are talking about sacrificing lives now for potential future life expectancy, but to what point?

How do we know that (having averted Climate change) a virus won't appear and wipe out the next generation, or nuclear war won't engulf the planet or simply looking closer to home, the "west" is over taken economically by emerging nations and we become poorer and cannot sustain the NHS and other social care institutions?

And at some stage...in any event, guess what is going to happen to all our grand children.......

pb, what is the natural cycle of life? Some eat poor diets and die sooner than if they had eaten differently, some get struck down by illness due to their genes.

Some die through accidents and war and weather (without climate change being the cause)

Human kind won't get wiped out, a few degrees increase in global temperature while changing the environment for everyone will not lead to the end of human kind. (i am not saying there would not be widespread disruption just not total annihilation)

And I am pretty sure that on the assumption the world goes net zero or less and climate change is averted, there will be new forms and ways for us all to die sooner than we would want.

(I would remind some here of the scares I have lived with: Cuban missile crisis, bird flu, Swine flu Mad Cow disease, collapse of Ozone layer, Aids, Ice age, climate change, I think there are others but my point is that we routinely report challenges to the continuation of human life on earth but life does go on, and as I say, I am sure new ones will emerge over the coming decades to occupy the youth of the day.

And still at the end of it all, none of us are getting off this rock alive.

Oh Mowzer, I am sorry to hear your news. I know none of us "know" each other, but I think we do a bit. and I hope very much you get better soon

I think Chris the fact that gets overlooked is that we are all still going to die.

If that lady dies prematurely in the ambulance due to the protesters blocking the road, then how did it help her?

If we live in colder conditions now and some elderly folk either stave or freeze and prematurely die what is the point?

It seems a lot of these groups simply want to sacrifice lives now for potentially saving lives in the future without recognising the futility of both their actions and the irrefutable future outcome.

so, it looks to me as though there is a floor currently which means the SP at best will stagnate or otherwise, move up..

To me it looks a good risk reward at the current price with a 10-15% downside for a approx 50% gain (6.2p ish?)

Except Alf, the SP is less than half of what it was 12 months ago.

So, the question then becomes is the SP already reflecting the relative (iyo) poor performance or, does it need to adjust down further?

SP's tend to look forward. Is BMN on a downward path as a company, (which the SP will reflect in due course) or are the conditions in place for an increase in cash production and therefore an appreciating SP?

If the SP can close above 5.20p it bodes well but of course it has to hold above 4.10p

only time will tell, and of course how the RNS is worded.

a little while ago I was querying how much efficacy would be in the phase1a part of the trial and was reminded that this is just about safety. If the market also holds to this, ie no further forwards other than its "safe" with nothing about efficacy, then I would expect the SP to stay within its trading range ie 140p top.

If however there is biopsy data revealed which either hints or better still can claim "encouraging" tumour reduction then its a whole new ball of wax and I imagine the SP would react accordingly.

Its not unreasonable imo, given the actual factual info released and the parameters of this part of the trial, that the market is waiting for hard data before they readjust their own expectations.