Member Info for wyndrum

ripley, news often moves the SP (but not always as sometimes the SP already reflects the expected news). Thats why I have mused recently that due to the positive trial RNS's thus far and all the corroborating interviews that maybe the market had already priced in the positive safety aspect of the this part of the trial.

The recent move has come (I think) from the novel cash raise and new M&A policy.

The market did not see this coming hence the SP has moved upwards as it is seen as a positive. As you point out news can move the SP. Charts/ TA, does not argue against that.

As I have tried to point in my post, all SP's have the option of going up or down. No one is predicting one or the other but simply trying to assess based on previous patterns what is most likely to be next and then act accordingly.

(I am starting to think a floor is most likely to be sustained around the 116p=120p level, but its early days, and we can see from the past that this has not been very strong level to stop further falls. But now there is new news (the cash raise and acquisitions providing cash flow) which I think now removes the big drag of share dilution funding for a good while, and therefore should remove the fear for some of a sudden bad news RNS which would hurt the SP.

That being removed has led I think to a new level of confidence in investors hence the buying (confirmed with the reduction in shorts)

You are right of course that all investors have different time lines but it kind of does not matter. People buy and sell every day and their decisions affect the SP, none of us know how long or not the stock had been held, so it really does not matter.

That rate of churn however is important to trade a stock and the volitilty in stocks like this (high risk/ potential high gain) are always going to attract the gambling element of the stock market. Its just a fact of life.

So yes I agree you can't legislate for unexpected news and I am not pretending (or ever have) that TA can, but if i use me as a direct example. I have traded this stock a lot but always kept a core holding because of the chance of a good surprise. In other words that's a plausible scenario that I have taken into account.

Lastly I suppose to show the different mental approach: Say I sell some stock at 140p and make 40% profit from my 100p purchases with a view to buying back in lower down. but the SP just carries on going up.

I have not lost anything. I traded at a 40% gain. If I decide to buy back in and its now 150p I am not go wail about the "lost" 10p per share from when I last sold. Those previous trades were successful and this new one starts at 150p and will stand on its own to see if it was correct or not.

And as to your last point about buying it if it was oversold due to a failure of tech:

TA is a mechanical system and is used mostly on indices that can't fail. When used on stocks i have tailored the approach and simplified it as there is a r

I wonder if the rise this week is a reflection of the take up from Pi's? if the MM's can see the responses to the allocation and the amount over subscribed then it will let them know the likely direction of travel.

(i am naturally hoping for rises next week but there will be most likely a down day or even two on the way up.

We are about 15% away from challenging the recent ATH and with the RSI at 66 it suggests we might get there but it will have to cool off before going up further beyond 140p.

Before you all go "you mean it might go up or down",... YES, thats the point, those are the choices, its assigning the chances of a directional move thats key.

With the impetus of recent moves it suggests there is still upward momentum left. 140p is an obvious target. however its how it gets there is for some important.

A scenario could be massive 20% jump in one day on no news, taking the SP to the mid 140's, definitely possible , odds less than 30%? if it happened the RSI would be overbought and a retrace to 137p would be most likely.

Or another scenario is monday it moves up another 5p, getting close to over bought so maybe Tuesday falls back a little. 50%?chance?

Or takes a breather after the rises and treads water /falls a a few p to 117p (unwinding the RSI a little) 70% chance?

Its not predicting what it WILL do its just trying to assess, the most likely options of what it MIGHT do, and then assigning, based on what has gone before, what YOU think most likely to happen next.

For me, I have already made my decision and bought lower down on the support at around 98-100p with a final top up this week at 109p So I am comfortable to see how this plays unless there is a huge jump and the RSI goes above 80 and then I will make a decision at the time to maybe sell some with the hope of buying back in a few % lower down. Otherwise I will sit on my hands.

For traders its in no mans land so they may be cautious in adding around these levels. If it moves to mid 120p's and falls back to around 117-120p I think thats when "new" traders will appear.

So who knows? but traders look at these various scenarios and have plans in place depending on which one takes place and then can act swiftly to try to take advantage depending on what unfolds.

(I did not go through all the options but just a few obvious ones to give an idea of the thought process.)

maybe you should post these predictions before you hit the vino?

Just a thought....

Wayne, the SP is up 20% this week. Not everyone is as greedy as us lot.

thanks Ice, thats fair enough. fingers crossed. The only thing then it would be a bit more of a RI with new shares beyond what was originally stated? If there is a big request for more they may just want to take the extra dosh for the future?

I guess we will know soon enough.

I'm not sure ice:

This from the doc:

"Shareholders should note that the Open Offer is not a rights issue. Qualifying Shareholders should be aware that in the Open Offer, unlike in a rights issue, any Open Offer Shares not applied for will not be sold in the market on behalf of or placed for the benefit of Qualifying Shareholders who do not apply under the Open Offer."

It seems pretty finite to me, with no discretional wriggle room built in?

Ice... "The Avacta board have clear final discretion on an extra allowance! you might find your extra allowance gets approved more easily than everyone thinks!"

where does it say that in the offer? (I couldn't see it, but may have looked in the wrong place)

I wonder what happened to the poster investinme ?

For such a polite poster I thought he might return to apologise but perhaps his manners were not quite as high as he imagined them to be?

ok Hurst (this is almost a conversation :0)), so: when you say "NY wants the London listed Avacta stock" how do you know ?and still don't quite see how you can identify buys or sells with the country of origin?

Hurst: when you say "As mentioned this morning, NY wants stock and any size will now shortly be 125 offered with follow up offer at 130."

How can you tell where the buys originate from? I did not think AVCT had a US listing? And why is 1:30 significant?

you're a strange one straggly: "Any issues by all means reply. I would rather you did not and just fekked off"

And yet you aim posts at me specifically (normally rude) while at the same time not wishing me to reply....

Try this...... don't send posts to me?

well done ripley thats a good effort.

You realise that you based it on no news being released but you expected buyers to come in prior to news being released in the near future, to move the SP.

Its just that you dismiss charts (which as I bang on about are just based on the psychology of people being predictable), and you make a (pretty accurate) prediction on the SP based on........the psychology of people being predictable.

There is no "magic" about charts which is why constantly I wonder why so many get so excised about it.

based on what straggly? jealousy?

Anyway, you can be as rude and dismissive as you like if it gives you some comfort, meanwhile I shall carry on making money as best and as quickly as I can.

not really gmcc. I only use support and resistance to determine likely key areas to maybe add or sell with the support of the RSI if it is around either at 20 (to buy) or 80 (to sell). Other then that I don't bother with any other indicators these days since I stopped bond trading

I have said repeatedly I keep it very simple and with this stock (to my initial surprise) it has worked very well.

(Close 112p) fingers crossed this sticks....

well done Straggly you are getting the hang of it now, just next time try and buy in front rather than behind (its not as hard as you make it to be......)

maybe now?

well done D, lets hop you can get into some constructive dialogue with them.

varies CJ depending on what funds I release elsewhere. (Average was £3.4k) I am pretty much where I want to be without over commitment given I have had to add further funds to take up the allowance and indeed am asking for more (although i understand I might not get extra)

Sperenza I sold that trade at 130p.

just for you my last 6 buys have been

5/10 @ 101.5p
7/10 @ 104.9p
11/10 @ 100p
18/10 @ 99.1p
21/10 @ 103.19
and today 27/10 @ 109.8p

Happy now?