Member Info for wyndrum

its actually around 2% on dummy buys and sells. fairly normal.

Have to see how this pans out but a down day or 2 this week looked to me as the most likely outcome.

"Or takes a breather after the rises and treads water /falls a a few p to 117p (unwinding the RSI a little) 70% chance?"

Yanis, small stocks like that can be a problem to get in and out of. That may not be an issue for you but for some it might be. It just adds another layer of risk that all should be aware of. ATB

I roped myself into ECO and am sitting on about 15% profit but they are somewhere between any day and 2 weeks from declaring the results of their drill.

It looks to be a 2-3 bagger pretty quickly on a good outcome but like all exploration plays its more likely to come up dry than not.

for the sake of a small amount chucked at it might be worth ago? (the chart says its a goer having broken a strong resistance level on Friday and stayed above today but as I say.... its all or nothing (more or less. They do have other options but I would think its a 50-80% fall on coming up dry.) DYOR etc etc

(that thought occurred to me too.)

Maybe Jm, I have no way of knowing but believing these buyers are "traders" does not necessarily make it so. and it does not make these people who think they are traders, traders either.

a lot of people are simply caught up with buying and selling like placing bets on football matches, slot machines, roulette wheels etc.
But this how it works. I think most here believe in FOMO and when many see a SP moving they are fearful on missing out so they pile in. Then it goes to a level where historically it is deemed too expensive, so some will sell and bank their profit.

Thats how TA works and this stock which is more about rumour than most stocks lends itself to trading successfully by less emotional folk.

Each to his own.

jm, not all buyers might have been the dreaded traders. To be a LTH you have to buy the stock in the first place. Many may have decided now was the time to get on board today for the long term.

rxdav, the traders would have sold at 141p.

I love the way you think traders are useless and always lose money and its only LTB&H that win out even though the SP is where it was years ago...Plus the bitterness towards them. Its strange you have to justify your own strategy against invented stereotypes of people you have no knowledge of or of their actions.

er no.... actually..... not once.

If you call being "exposed", people making up lies about me then yes, this BB is brilliant for it.

And you should know as you continually contribute to the lies, just as your latest post proves.

You think is ridicule, but you need to realise... I don't care.... and I doubt anyone else does here either.

What you have proved is how petty and small minded you are thinking your inventions are true. (better add deluded to your chractaristics too.)

(Ohh I remember one time when everyone here went overboard on an poster called Sarah and how well the LFT was going to do and I said maybe not... I wonder whatever happened to her? How we laughed...)

yes, some coincidence given I did not report any of them. (Why would I? given I had recent posts refuting claims against me and buys that I posted that show that I am in healthy profit.)

You need look closer to home to those that simply can't accept anything I do or say that turns out to have some validity.

is it? how do you know that cinders?

if no one is interested why did you comment?

I would not go on hardly at all about this but its you lot that twist and downright lie about everything I do and then get terribly self-righteous when I respond.

I said PL, when I bought at 129p that I though it would rise. ...and it did...(by 10%). I have also many times expressed my opinion that it was 142p(not 137p as if memory served you used to quote) as significant.

You will just have to imagine what I did when it hit 142p (or 141.97 if you wish to be pedantic.)

Still its all luck...... I have not used much money today but its been as it turned out a stress free and easy two way trade and I am back where I started but with 10% more stock on that trade that when I started.

Ahh.... you are starting to get it....

not to mention the resistance at 142p......

Opps lets delete this one too....

I know , I know, its just coincidence.

Thanks DTW.

(Oops! sorry better delete this thread too as no one wants to be reminded of what TA can do

Hi Ade, did you bother to revist AVCT?

(it was about 100p then and is now close to 140p)

Cheers

D: now at 136p . one to hang onto I think and ride it (hopefully) up.

Have a stop loss from where you bought in or if nervous, then sell some at a level you have reasoned to be significant but not all of the stock?

Cheers

ripley I have actually noticed a different approach to me from you and think the conversation is much the better for it.

I was concerned about the funding but the last update seemed to show with much more money still in the coffers that it was now not the issue I previously thought. My takeaway now, is that whilst any loss making company (whatever it does), puts itself in a much higher risk bracket vis i vis the market view and therefore will be a bigger drag on SP appreciation than even I gave it credit for. (but as I say I think thats because I am too close to AVCT to be as objective as I would coming into anew stock. but thats me).

I can't help or influence you reaction to my posts. In none of these posts am I or was I remotely or at all, , "hysterical" or "wound up" to the quite emotive responses you think I was undergoing.( Honestly I have no idea how you came to those conclusions reading the posts.)

It was just the weekend and then sometimes with the market closed its ok to kick around thoughts of what might happen next.

I am confident in my approach because it works. I I make money at it. Its a hobby now but I have, even by my standards quite a lot of as hobbies go, sloshing around in various stocks but after being used to levereged amounts when bond trading, I don't get fazed by it.

As for being wound up here? sometimes, but not so much now and clearly not as much as as many here imagine, but I do find personal insults tedious because its uncivil, and ultimately thats not a society I want to live in. People should be able to express themselves without having then to defend themselves against unsubstantiated lies just because I hold investment views different to other people here.

PL now wants to keep posting that I am a failed gambler that needs help having first decided that I am Sea-lioning:

"Sea-Lioning is an Internet slang term referring to intrusive attempts at engaging an unwilling debate opponent by feigning civility and incessantly requesting evidence to back up their claims."

Now, I think that is a fair description of my posting during the LFT phase of AVCT, (although "intrusive" is a matter of opinion, but ok), but it turns out that my skepticism was well founded and correct. Which I think therefore dispels the underlying intent of being labeled a "sea-lion". But whatever.

I was actively asked to be banned by Myles simply for expressing a view that he did not agree with. As he has millions of AVCT shares and constantly puts the bull case forward (all through LFT remember), made me concerned of his motives. (And none of his AVCT forecasts came to pass at that time, note.)

Anyway, I am clearly far more relaxed than you seem to think!

I Pay £5.50 per trade and the spread is typically when I buy and sell through HL about 1-2% which on a stock that moves in 1% (approx) increments means on the amounts I trade in as blocks, to be perfectly acceptable as overheads for the rewards routinely on offer.

The higher risk of AIM also means there is no .5% govt levy on the initial buy, which helps quite a lot to take short and sometimes small profits.

As for gambling of course it is.

Just don't kid your self that your method is any different.

You have spent an amount of money on an unknown outcome. You just a different timescale

Also I am not a day trader ( I have done that and found it difficult to consistently produce a profit week in and week out and after 3 years decided I did not have the mental rigour to cut losses quickly enough or run profitable situations to the max. However I did not learn a lot about it and me which I put to good use now..

By the way a day trader is someone who close their position out at the end of the day.

As for the RSI, who cares, it works for me. No system is full proof but I have for me, developed a methodology that works far more often than it fails.. So I am happy to hold stock for as long as i think it prudent, I use support and resistence lines coupled with the RSI to time entry and exit better.

Some people like L2 data and Volume indicators or MA's, Pivot points, Fib sequences et al. I have tried them all but they did not work reliably enough for me. and thats the point, each to his own

Why you think i make all this up and lie is a bit beyond me. PL always wants to remind everyone one of the ones that went wrong (but on other stocks not this one), so that must mean by any logic that he "believes" my posts.

But somehow refuses to accept that I am ever successful. Ok... whatever, I really don't care.

But really coming from a man who thinks china's approach to covid was how the UK should have acted somewhat undermines his analytical thinking in my opinion. So carry on PL, telling everyone what you think of me, and I will carry on trying to buy low and sell high.

Because if you have just stuck with this stock over the years you have missed huge opportunities to increase your wealth or share holding with only a small bit of buying and selling rather than being devoted to the company at the exclusion of the SP.

riply, My reasoning about the stagnating SP (which to be fair I think its true to say flummoxed us all) was that we are back (or I am) to scenario's.

Fact: The SP had over the last 3 months, been around 110p-98p with a spike to 137 that quickly went when the 4th cohort was revealed. It then went on to make lower highs thereafter.

Fact: Every indication is that the trial was/is going well and to expectations.

So why would the SP be falling rather than rising as the clock runs down? It does not make sense.

1: Maybe the market has no idea about AVCT and what it does. (I don't think that is likely or plausible and if it was so, then the SP would be very stable as no one would be interested in it but thats not the case).

2: If the market therefore is aware of the trail and its implications, given its lack of future funding plans (at the time) then had the market, with its already quite high valuation for a loss making company, already factored in the positive part of this trial, knowing that it hinges around the next one (1b) and thats when the market will look at it again because thats when if it works, timelines to profitability (and the scale of profitability), will be clearer.

3: The market knew the funding cloud had to be resolved before further significant SP appreciation could take place?

I discounted 1,and I thought 3 was less likely due to recent updates showing what looked to be sufficient funding for the relative near term (12 months or so). That only left (to me) scenario 2.

Now there is new news and I think this very novel approach of suddenly developing and acquiring a diagnostics company which has the potential to fund not only its expansion but some of the theraputics division as well, combining with hopefully more milestone payments, might in hindsight be transformational in the financial footing of the company.

In the very short term it seems to have removed the drag of how it will fund itself going forward, removing a big downside to buying the shares. Hence the shorts closed.

I think again in hindsight, being too close to this stock I was not giving enough weight to the future funding issue.

The way the SP reacts now will determine where and at what level it values the company and its risks.

I will be delighted, I mean really delighted, to see the shares absolutely rocket on positive 1a trial data and will happily concede that my thoughts of the market already pricing it in was wrong.

In my defense this is new news that none of us saw coming (ie very little dilution) and I can only (as do we all), make judgments on the info available.

So as the facts change, so does my thinking. Anyway, to me thats the (only) point of these BB's, kick around ideas and thoughts to try and be ahead the curve if possible, whichever way it looks to be going.

Dan, I use 80/20 on the RSI as a (much) more reliable range.

the recent high of 142p (which has not been surpassed since) on the 22/04 had an RSI of 85. 2 days previously it was 136p and 84 on the rsi and I think i sold around there as the odds suggested a fall was more likely than not.(I mentioned this at the time) .

The fact it went up further did not bother me because the RSI was still "too high" so there was no incentive for me to buy back in, thinking I had made the wrong call at 136p

Its just an odds game. (The key is not to let losses increase when you call it wrong.)

That's why some here like to remind everyone one I bought at 132p and then it fell, but I sold 130p realising my original analysis was wrong. It frees up capital to make the small loss back elsewhere. Its part and parcel of TA. some you win and some you lose, but try and keep the losses small and try and run the winners for all you can. (which is not as easy as it sounds).