Member Info for wyndrum

Jack, " Nothing wrong with that but it does skew you're outlook as you want to the SP to drop so you can buy back and sell at a higher price, again nothing wrong with that and good luck to you. But the thing that riles most people is you're constant doubting and belittling any achievments/ milestones that are being hit as in dose escalation."

This is illogical. If I buy the shares (And how many posts have I made recently saying I have bought the shares!) then why would I want them to fall?

Its this unfounded misconception that one, I want the stock to fall (I don't, I would happy nay delighted if it were 1000p per share) and two, we are back to this ludicrous idea that i can affect the SP!!!!

The Sp is only 130p even though it was 120p over 2 years ago, even though it is 15 months into a trial with the results soon to be released/updated.

You have Paul Hill banging on about it with a bigger following than here, you have Myles with a bigger following than on here and they don't move the dial, so please believe me when I say, whatever is posted here does not affect the SP. Otherwise it would already be 1000p with the bullish and well researched posts out lining the potential on this BB.

Trading does not "skew" my outlook. I take a shorter term view as being more easily predictable in the events that might unfold. Trying to guess where AVCT will be in its developments in 2, 3 or 5 years times seems too vague, there are too many possibilities and permutations for me to try and predict what is most likely. So then for me, its just a pie in the sky .

As for belittling any achievments/ milestones that are being hit as in dose escalation, what do you mean? What do you know that I don't?

Are you are assuming based on the info given that it is behaving exactly as it did in the pre-clinical trials?

Well, i am assuming its working in the sense its not harming the patients because it would have been stopped. other than that I have no sense as to how well its level of efficacy is right now. But this comes back to the company and the SP.

The trial will take care of itself. It will work or fail, it will work either spectacularly well, or just a bit of improvement. Thats all down to the clever bods at AVCT.

What I try to see if there is a disconnect between the SP and the market.

I posted earlier that it was an absolute no-brainer to buy stock at 100p when the 95p offer came in (and explained why, according to my reasoning). Thats what i mean between focussing on the SP rather than the company. As a result on that purchase alone, I am 30% up.

But somehow this offends many here.

Apre, there is no tantrum? why on earth because I disagree with you half baked misapplied assumptions about me mean I am having a tantrum?

"One small point. Nothing about my posting to you is intended to make me appear "superior". I don't need to do that, I am stable, secure and self-confident."

And you don't think having to post that remark contradicts that view of yourself?

You continually post your view of my character as though you are trying to achieve what exactly? That you know me better than I know myself? (Would that not make you feel superior?

That you are doing everyone a favour here by making these (wild actually)assumptions about me? (Believing you are talking for everyone here presumably makes you feel good...possibly even superior to others here that have not worked out what a terrible person I must be...according to you...)

Again you have to look at what I post. My views on AVCT, not you or others just what they put forward when posting about AVCT.

For some reason you think this BB is enhanced by then becoming personal towards me. And then its my fault the BB is clogged with this infantile nonsense.

PAH: "The question is simply is it cleaving at the TME? We don't need a longer winded essay that says nothing."

Except it isn't. Say 1a has gone well, then there is part 2 of the trial and how well it works which is what, 13 months or more away? Then there is how much is it worth? How will it be monitised?

(for instance how would you feel if the company was bought in 6 months time fort 500p per share?)

I have (by my standards) a decent sized amount in this stock but these things TYPICALLY move slowly, and have a few twists and turns along the way.

It depends what your goal is. I want to make as much money as I can, as quickly as I can. I do it one way, you do it another.

You I presume, hold a high risk stock for as long as it takes (years) in the hope it pays off. I try, (try) to be more nimble, recognising I take less risk with the potential for less gain, but, maybe the smaller profits banked more regularly make up or exceed the LTBH strategy.

To this day I have no idea why this is contentious on an investment BB.

Ripley, I have no idea. There are a lot of assumptions and things to go right first. However, my best guess (with all the positive assumptions), is the big big bucks are 3-5 years away. More likely (imo) is a buyout anywhere between 300p-600p depending on the risk someone wants to take within the development cycle.

Plenty here may want to wait another, say 5 years but some who have already been her 5 years plus, may not.

Its like every sell is a trader and every buy is a LTB&H. The generlisations don't work and are not again imo, helpful.

I don't know if I am right or wrong, ever, but common sense tells me, that if it is so obvious a company is going to be worth £50 per a share in a few years, it would not be valued at 1.30p today. It simply wouldn't. Therefore my takeaway is, its possible but unlikely based on the info available today.

You look at some of the trials that are going on now let alone what we don't know is being researched privately and its perfectly possible a gene therapy will be developed that makes AVCT's current line of research redundant or at least reduces the time of the usefulness of the tech.

Its a risk, and there are risks out there that we can't quantify due to poor lack of knowledge.

Hopefully it will all come good but whether anyone likes it or not the clock is ticking and the window does not stay open indefinitely .

So, as always, never ever over commit.

oh for gods sake GROW UP!

If this was such "positive news" why has the SP not reacted?

You can live in this make believe world you seem to have concocted with AVCT if you want, where every bit of news is fantastic, from the new tea lady taken on to a US company bought out by another US company doing something completely different thereby valuing AVCT at 10 times it current price, but if you try and look at the reality you might just see when REAL opportunities present themselves to make money.

This BB is a simply a club for wishful thinking

Its a good positive result but it is skewed. The original allocation to us lot was pathetic, so it followed that even asking for 10 times more was not going to cost a lot of money to most individuals, then you factor in the, already, baked in profit, (so free money and would not take advantage of that), and then you factor in many would have asked for more than they wanted expecting at best, a severe scale back.

So as I say looks good, but maybe to be expected.

The positive is that it shows PI's have confidence in the company but I am pretty sure that was already a given.

turns out the RSI has only moved to 66, so enough room for further gains without straining the odds it would seem. Fingers crossed.

oh boy....

."And some say (Wyn) nobody knows who we are or cares. Staggering over subscription."

The current shareholders know about AVCT because they are already shareholders

I don't know, I am just guessing....Also perhaps the over subscription is so high because the allocation was for most, a handful of shares only.......

fair enough lovie. Whats the plan if it goes up on the results?

who bought your shares then?

thanks guys, that was both concise and very helpful

Sorry James, I did not understand all of that. Currently its close to $100 per barrel, is it a different type of oil there (lower grade? I don't know who Joe & jethro etc are)

I bought in on a chart perspective.

As we are drawing close now to a result (one way or the other) If its a positive outcome does anyone have reasonable formula/approach to how the market would value ECO? based on say $75/barrel?

I know this dumb but RNS's change the game and I am trying to get some idea of how to calibrate a positive find to make decisions going forward.

(TIA and I appreciate if you can't be bothered to answer such a basic question :0))

Hi D, fwiw I think it was more a buying opportunity then a sell right now. (I posted over there when it was around 890p that it was probably a good entry point.)

I think (with the normal to and fro that 1000p will be a good place to reappraise. (It will depend of course on the latest RNS. If the company is unaffected by macro conditions then there would seem to be quite a lot more upside to come, hence my longer term view on this one.)

Hi Doc, "if we get the right results in time to come, all these prices will all be irrelevant compared to where the SP could be in time."

Well yes I agree, but that "if we get the right results..." is kinds the whole ball game.

If we knew that the results of this trial and the subsequent following trial will be successful then you simply beg, steal or borrow every single penny you could get your hands on and buy the stock.

I am being devil's advocate here inasmuch as I have bought a lot recently thinking its worth the risk, but its never done till its done.

(Also i am not scared to take a profit and then fret the SP might rise before I decide to buy back in if I wanted to.)

Hi D, If it were me I think that if you someone wanted to trade this, now is a good place to sell as I am pretty sure the RSI will be close or above 80 if this rise holds by close. The more it rises above 897p the more likely it will fall back to around this level to unwind the RSI so just hypothetically if you could sell at 915p, say, then there is a good chance of buying back in lower down but, is the 2% likely move worth it?

Thats when sometimes its about actual money rather than percentages. If there is £1000 invested then we are talking about £20 which after costs makes no sense. If its £100k then its a different story.

It sounds as though you have a firm plan to take some or all profit at 30% gain. As you know I take a fraction of the overall holding at 30% profit and then more should it get to higher amounts, to bank profit and reduce risk.

Its mechanical and its looking more short term, so make sure this type of approach matches your timescales.

good luck

Ho Doc, Exactly!

The thinking may have been: the diff between 95p and 100p is 5% so, can you squeeze the extra 5% out by being greedy and going for the extra potential share allocation at 95p or the certainty of buying at 100p now?

Now in my book 5% is not nothing so the aim of maximising profit is fine but what were the odds?

The fact that the SP did not fall back or even below 95p (which is what would have been expected in the "offer" had it been a so-so market reaction), suggested it was not going to go down any further And in my book if ain't going down ,then its going up, suggested the risk reward was very high that 100p was a good bet. (Nothing is ever risk-free, but the odds were stacked for SP appreciation)

(This to me, is a good example to demonstrate its about the SP, not particularly the company.)

if you are still here D, any further thoughts on WOSG?

oops " 987p ish, is a reasonably strong resistance level."

typo, 897p is what I meant to say

Ade, 987p ish, is a reasonably strong resistance level.

The 3 options are it tries and fails falls back or breaks through onto 1000p, or hovers around this level for a while before deciding what to do.

(I think there is an update out this week so the strong run up looks to be an expectation of good figures.)

The 2 options I think are most likely is (given the RSI is starting to approach over bought territory) is that it gets to 900p and falls back to take a breather before having another go at it or it breaks it easily (becomes overbought), and the RSI unwinds back to the now new strong support of 897p.

In my opinion either of those two scenarios says buy now with a 1% wiggle room below the battle ground of 897p where a fight looks inevitable.