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Ups, what time interval are you using? Cheers

A couple of things, as Shares says, we all knew a cash raise was going to be needed in and around the time of the drill.

It was expected to be this year and the few months delay into 2023 has stretched the funds further to where we are now. As for raising the money potentially earlier, how exactly is that different now?

From June the SP has been around 8p and even after the failed discovery it has been 11p and below, so we, imo, have never had the opportunity to use a strong SP to raise funds sooner. So waiting has not made any material difference as far as I can see.

So events have not been helpful to this exploration. How much of this can be laid directly at DM's door I am not sure, but probably less than the stick he has taken here.

I would expect (but don't know), that there is enough money for the drill. There could be a small dilution (as happened earlier this year), just to get the drills over the line and then do a proper raise thereafter on a successful outcome.

It will be interesting to see how this presentation goes today. (Although having said that, these events tend to be much less informative than hoped for.)

I don't think it is that unusual. This company has form that when it is silent and timelines are missed it has led to disappointing news. This may well not apply to the current trial, (and I hope it does not), but it is a reasonable (or at least understandable) reaction to the latest delays and recent sell off.

Given how careful DM talks about cash preservation I imagine there will be little expense now until the drill starts in earnest so i think the extrapolation of cash burn maybe overdone?

It will be interesting to see where the SP finishes today.

well the immediate breakout has taken place today with a close at 8.45p. (There was a recent spike at 8.5p, so it needs to clear that to confirm the breakout is most likely to be sustained.)

Where next?

That's tricky (imo) as there are various different (spiked) points that could be used but due to the choppy nature from 9p onwards.

Ultimately I would expect 11.5p to be the ultimate near term target. (Given thats about 35-% away that could be a nice profit for people buying in now.) After that its 14p ......fingers crossed....

" I simply pointed out that the £11 per share valuation that RAH provided was baseless due to lack of knowing the profit margin and the amount of sales and when those sales will happen." (25/11)

That caused me to reported for being disruptive...10 days later we have the same conversation (ie how can you presently value AVCT and it turns out its a" A fair discussion all round."

Rob, unfortunately mine are pretty old now and out of print mostly!

But here's a couple of things that you might find useful.

Its a mechanical system. That means when certain things happen you react. You don't question the "system" (if you do then you probably don't have a system).

Because it mechanical its not emotional. That means what you think and feel are irrelevant. (if you can't do this then don't waste your money on getting read up about it.)

TA is short term. you are not looking months and years ahead when using a chart. It can be as short as intra day (but thats hard on stocks), a number of days or maybe a few weeks ahead is likely to be most accurate.

TA predicts nothing. At any given the time or price the SP has 2 options, it can either go up or down. All TA can do is indicate what is most likely to happen, not what "will" happen.

You really need the ability to short as well otherwise you are trying to make money with one hand tied behind your back.

(Its ok in a bull market but obviously much harder in a bear market if you can only go long.)

Be aware of using TA for stocks as they can be easily manipulated by big buyers or sellers. (TA works better on indies).

If you are going to use it on stocks you need volatility, tight spreads and the bigger the market cap the better.

Some rules always apply though, NEVER OVER COMMIT. (Never bet more than you can COMFORTABLY afford to lose. This will more easily allow a less emotional pull when looking at the stocks you have a holding in.

I use a bit of FA to identify stocks in the first place and then apply some very basic TA to try to time entry and exit to maximise profitability.

I agree Rich with your interpretation of the RNS. Buying a manufacturer would make commercial sense and as you say it is more than hinted at when specifically saying they want an integrated business model.

Who it will be of course, will only be known after the event.

there are 2 targets now: 27.5p is the first one and has come around quickly and may be attacked even today. the next one is 30.5p so I would expect some volatility between these 2 figures going forward.

(after that its 45p-50p and as that is a big jump from 30.5p (should it be breached) I would expect a lot of buying to come in to get on board for the potential rise in the offering.) imo dyor etc etc

Manufacture is intriguing and a few weeks or so ago, there was talk here and there, about AVCT buying ABDX. I thought this unlikely and still do while they are listed. However (and this is just speculation), but it looks to me ABDX are in serious trouble and if they did go into admin then that might be the opportunity and time to buy? ( anon listed company in admin is a lot cheaper than bidding while still trading.)

We still have part 2 of the trial to take place yet so nothing has to happen immediately and AVCT might just have this up their sleeve depending on how it pans out?

Quite, I am not sure what the point is of protecting the environment, if it causes people to die of cold and lack of food.

And if you say thats a pretty selfish pov, (which it is), I would ask that the most obvious relatively quick solution is to reduce births to one per couple as its the amount of people on the planet which is the largest factor. But that never gets discussed, what with people wanting children (naturally), trumping almost all other desires.

apologies for my post today taking over the wrong thread....I meant to reply to "Its only a chart.."

"Wether covid is around for 2 or 200 years, with the exception of China, politically at least, covid is over."

As is known here, I thought it was always a narrow window for the original mass LFT test. However, the WHO have been on the radio only this week, emphasising that Covid is still very much with us and not to let our collective guards down.

While I agree there is no likelyhood of that mass test market being immediately available, it does depend on how, if it does, mutate.

The reason it is not seen as a threat now is the lack of deaths caused by it.

However tests will be done in hospitals on patients and perhaps staff. So it may well still become a commercial test but on a much smaller scale but whether its AVCT's test or not is another kettle of fish.

It just seems (to me) too much of a coincidence that LD was bought as a part solution to a cash raise. Clearly this was a clear flag to the importance AVCT see in the diagnostics market going forward. why its assumed that a covid test would not be part of the stable of tests available seems odd (again, to me) given its (still) high profile.

Xenor, let me ask you this: How do you value a company?

Are not all valuations looking into the future based on historical data?

The results can come out (which are already 3 months out of date when issued), say wonderful things and then the SP shoots up (increasing the valuation of the company), based on that now historic growth, continuing.

So shares go up and down when sometimes buyers and sellers get carried away and over-egg the pudding as it were, and then for want of a better word, common sense comes into play and says, "clam down, its too expensive/too cheap and the SP finds a more "reasonable" level.

All that has happened is that some clever bods have worked out an algo of the SP to indicate when this over bought/over sold situation develops to give a heads up of what is most likely to happen next and called it the Relative Strength Indicator. (TA and FA are closely related and work together but the individual who uses one method over the other typically are using different timescales for their objectives.

Hi Chris, you can make an argument the nearest support is at about 17p. However just because a share falls, does not mean it will test the next support down.

What did happen is the the stock was wildly over bought using the RSI indicator at both 23.9p and 25.9p, so the stock "had" to fall to unwind this overbought situation.

It has to a fair degree now but buyers are probably holding fire to see if further drops are coming.

Its going to be a bit of cat and mouse for while longer I think.

Dai, I use HL as a buy/sell platform and am just using their HE1 chart.
(There is also an "inside day" formation too which depending on the way it breaks often determines the direction of travel)

In the interest of full disclosure I should mention I am not great at timing big moves. but it is so compact now that I think there is at least a reasonable chance of the breakout today. (imo dyor etc)

I seem to remember AS saying there was a covid test market for 2-5 years?

using the RSI indicator it has unwound very nicely.
For those that don't know and have a passing interest on charts/TA, on the way up when the SP closed where it is now (20.9p) the RSI was 75.51 (Most TA books ay anything over 70 suggests it is overbought, however personally I find when it hits 80 its a more reliable indicator of a fall, it topped out at 23.5p at 79.6 hence my reluctance to buy at that time.

Anyway, it is now 20.9p again but the RSI has unwound to 60.26, lovely, it now leaves room for it to go beyond the last high at 23.5p.

Of course it could reverse and fall tomorrow, but the odds look favourable to me of further gains against the chances of more retracing/falls. Just my opinion DYOR etc etc

well, it looks to be an explosive move (probably tomorrow). given the flag formation has formed after a sharp rise the odds are that the move will be up. Just my opinion dyor etc etc

just luck Yanis.

After your remarks on the other BB I had a look at it and thought it was worth a go but as I said earlier felt a pull back was more likely so held off, and it just felt this morning that the selling was most likely over.

So I knew when I did not want to buy, but had to have a bit of luck when deciding after the fall when to wade in.

Anyway thanks again for highlighting the potential of this stock. ATB