Member Info for wyndrum

Of course it takes as long as it takes. Why couldn't AVCT say something like?"... if all goes as well as it can, then in about 12-15 months the trial will be complete but this is always a difficult situation due to the frailty and poor health of the patients and could take longer, we will update the market as the trial progresses." And at least emphasise the likely elastic time lines involved in this sort of trial.?

Its not my fault when AVCT give out a timeline and then fail to meet it.

All I am trying to explain are maybe, the reasons why there is a seemingly chasm of a disconnect between the current SP and the the valuations bandied about on here.

Failed timelines have historically led to disappointment with this company. That is a fact. That is what the market is most likely pricing in. I am sure they are ready to be pleasantly suprised but in fact the "Casino" of AIM is due to PI's, not the big players who tend to weigh up risk/reward much more carefully and conservatively then many here.

ES thats unfair.

And you know it, and you have brought this straw man argument because you are simply choosing one AVCT statement over another to confirm your pov.

Its fine Doggy. Its also immaterial.

We are talking about the valuation of AVCt and this is a topic because of the assumed market inaccuracy at 105p.

All I have said as have others, is that, it is the variables involved that make any guesstimate pointless at this stage.

I listed some actual realities (as opposed to best potential outcomes) to try and show why the market may be more sceptical than most here.

Always realise the market is nowhere near as optimistic as the actual shareholders based on their collective experience of previous promising ideas & tech failing.

If all goes well the SP will react accordingly. but there are too many unknowns at this stage to go beyond it would seem about 120p-140p.

The very fact that it is stuck at the bottom of expectations suggests that the market will not be surprised if we do not get info this Q and that the waiting game may well have to go on.

The market could be wrong, but what have they go to lose? (You don't lose money by not being invested, the most that can be said is the unrealisation of potential profit. And the market does not lose any sleep about that with the choice of sectors and companies to choose from at any given time.)

This is bizare. The company expected the trial to be complete in Q2, now its Q4, but there have been no delays?

When do you think think 1b will be completed? They said Q2 2023 so presumably its now Q4 2023 or do you think it will be sooner or later?

Ok Ice, and if we get an RNS saying data out in Q1 2023 will that still not be a delay because its the latest guidance?

I am not looking for a argument, but I was expecting something in Q2 (based on that RNS) but thought Q3 more likely, just because AVCT have a history of over optimism on timelines, but thought tey may have learnt their lesson, but here we are now at the tail end of Q4.

You might not see that as a delay but I do.

The fact is ICE, is that when the trial started AVCT expected it to done 6 months ago. Therefore there have been delays. How you can laugh at an RNS from august 21 projecting 12 months or less ahead, and being out (so far) by a factor of 50% is twisting the data to suit your view as opposed to what has actually been said from the company

ICE: "The dose escalation phase is anticipated to complete by Q2 2022 followed by completion of the dose expansion phase by Q2 2023."

RNS Number : 2214I
Avacta Group PLC
11 August 2021

CJ, I don't think its that black and white. The current valuation has already priced in an "expectation" of success. Success being it is not harming the patient. How well its working is not clear yet. Why have there been delays? (I know we can think of reasons) but we don't actually know.

And lets assume that it is working and that seems at least likely to at least some extent, then we are back to how much is it worth? 10% of a £1.5b market or more?

As I tried to say before, will every DOX course include AVCT, what will be the license fee, more than the cost of dox or less?

Lets say its not licensed? Then what will be charged? will/can every health purchase "afford" the extra cost or will they be more discerning as to who gets it?

And when? When will it be actually producing revenue?

From my pov none of this is negative, it only highlights the wealth of unknowns at this still, embryonic stage of development.

We still, just have to wait.

This is the nub of it I think. Its all about AVA6k.

If this is as good as we all hope then it opens every door pretty much imaginable going forward for revenue and SP appreciation and all the rest.

But if it disappoints then its casts a cloud on the rest of the tech.
So the market is waiting for the results and the delays cause uncertainty, so the market reacts accordingly

The difference now (I think) is the diagnostics. If that continues to produce a profitable revenue stream (and I can't see a reason why it would not), then you get an underpinning to the SP that has not been present before.

I would value that at about 30p-40p per share on a *** packet basis on present sales let alone an expected growth in profits

This for me, reduces the downside risk considerably against a poor news outcome on the trial

well, it moved quicker than I expected. My initial thought it would bottom out around 23.2-23.5p but while I was typing it fell to the 22.2p support, so jumped in.

Whether or not it will be a good place will only be with hindsight....

bitl, what data do we have? An overdue part1 trial with statements from a CEO renowned for being opaque when it suits him.

A company that has been ejected from a index forcing the SP down with no spring back.

A company that has yet to deliver a commercial product to market and and has undergone 2 cash raises on top of its original IPO.

All of this is standard fare from Bio tech companies. The market will wait for some actual official data and reassess then.

No valuation produced here is any better or worse than any other.

Its natural to be optimistic (otherwise we would bot have bought in), but it is all circumstantial presently.

Patience is always key. We simply have to wait to get proper data.

Fair points Nidge, perhaps the "difference" will be the rental market that MMAG are pushing more aggressively now? (greater profit)

"add around 22-25p" sorry...typo... 22-22.5p. (got some at 22.25p...)

But Nidge, 12 months ago the SP was 160p. So the current SP has to be seen in that context I think?

yep, I think that makes sense. I am looking to adda aound 22-25p

about now actually!!! gotta go

Its not a "bad attitude" to discuss valuations of companies in an investment BB.

Currently its all speculation with almost every metric being a variable that is dependent on further news.

An the only valuation that actually matters is the SP the day you want to sell.

If it was to day (for whatever reason), you could howl at the moon for as long as want that it should at least 500p but if the market says 104p then guess what...

The market is not as dumb as many here seem to think.

When there is news that will start to allow a narrower spectrum of prices to be input into a valuation so then will the SP adjust accordingly.

Up until then its a pretty pointless exercise.

Morning Yanis,

What are you thoughts on the TU?

It looked ok to me as its on course, (and BF was a record whereas previously they were cautious on forward revenues).

The immediate market reaction would suggest this was already built in to the SP? (Depends on where it closes however, for me).

Were you expecting more?

Cheers

Well said DBD, very well said.

well,, it did not break 8.5p and then fell back. its fallen to a general support of 7.2-7.4p and indeed fluctuated around those prices intraday.

Its too early to say that support will hold although the initial signs are that it will (I would say 60-40 in favour of anew low/support being formed.)

If that becomes a general concensus then there will be buying around this level as it would represent a low and therefore a good place to enter.

8.5p is now after yesterday a stronger resistance level so effectively back to square 1 for the more long term holder.

I have been buying on the way down from 25p so not brilliant, but my thought process was it might be a smaller than normal retrace based on the momentum of the rise. My average is 23p with a smaller tranche yesterday, that is at last looking well timed! :0))