Member Info for wyndrum

Actually Rah, on the basis that JT is right (and its a very fair post) then it has to come back to why then does AIM so misprice AVCT which was my post was asking.

And I think its worth exploring because AVCT is on AIM and still will be on AIM when the results are published.

So, the market has mispriced AVCT for years.

When will it stop mispricing it? (and will it ever, if it has done so far?)

Will it be on the back of good results of this trial? and what should the new value be? I ask so we know if the market is still getting it wrong.

Therefore are we collectively saying that currently the market does not believe the tech works. But only will, on the back of the end of p1

(By the way i liked JT's analysis)

"tech markets are littered with high value companies with zero current revenue. That is a bald FACT."

Does that not apply to AVCT?

cj, you have to look at the business models and the size of the market,

I'm sorry to bang on about this but how much sales will AVCT make and at what profit margin and when?

until we have a much clearer understanding of this we can't begin to value the company

We are already running at a loss and have a pretty big market cap.

Look at Harland and Wolfe: Just had a £1.6b order and the company has a a market cap of £30m, nearly a 10th of AVCT.

Is one cheap and the other expensive? who knows? all business are different, its about margins and timelines.

Ripley its about timing. Its all very well unlocking the potential but the market will need guidance as to when money will start to come in and at what level. Thats when more accurate valuations will arrive.

Currently at 107p its valued at £285m for about what, £10m of income?

Say the SP roughly doubles to about 220p, thats a £600m valuation of a company still with an a income probably at best around breakeven, or potentially making no profit.

The trial will not finish for another 12 months or so. We should know through updates how it is actually working.

If its going well then that's when the SP may most likely continue to rise, but again when will income start to come in and at what level will then be critical info that the market will want to justify the value of the company.

At some stage money does actually have to come in to the accounts to support the market valuation. Profits are not a theoretical concept.

Boy, you lot are really very insecure. Comments like "Unlocking the great unlock-able FAP activated therapeutics isn’t worth a bean" when SB made no such claim and did not draw that conclusion or anything about it, just shows how some simply make up stuff to reassure themselves that somehow anything, anything remotely not ramptastic, is trolling.

We are right at the end of the first part of the trial and the SP has been in a relatively narrow range for 7 odd months and at a relatively low level.

Every RNS regarding the trial has been good and as expected and yet has not moved the SP that much. Clearly the market is currently taking a longer term view than many here which is all Starbright is saying.

The problem for many here is that Starbright has the reality of the situation on his side when making his deductions.

To believe the market has no idea whats at stake is laughable after all this time.

And again as SB points out at these levels the risk reward is very appealing.

Why does stating the bleedin' obvious always cause such vitriolic comments here?

I imagine it will be factual with the dates of one trial finishing and the next one starting. With the release of the data on the website and a proposed date for the science day (so just a few lines)

What will be critical is the accompanying comment from AS. If its very positive with some adjectives like "exciting", "fantastic", etc to describe the results then we are away.

If its more cautious "as expected, next part of the trial crucial" etc etc then we are probably in for the longer haul

No, he didn't he said " everyone on the planet should chuck some cash in here,not on the anticipation of making money but on what this company could achieve which in turn will help everyone on the planet suffering with cancer ..."

Want to keep digging?

oh for Gods sake, Demo posted "...,on a personal note I think everyone on the planet should chuck some cash in here,not on the anticipation of making money but on what this company could achieve which in turn will help everyone on the planet suffering with cancer ..." what do you think he meant?

I asked for clarification and he has not responded. But you 2 have with your so predictable petty snide comments. One day you might grow up but I am not holding my breath

Better for getting that off your chest auro?

Its obviously not what demo posted. He was not posting in the past tense but describing what people here should do now going forward.

You do realise Demo, that no cash goes to AVCT when you buy the shares don't you?

Its just the seller and the MM making their commission that get the proceeds.

Should have said "120p must be on the cards in short order would have thought."

Removes a reason for the below par SP performance. Uncertainty tends to cause a slow drip drip fall in the SP and not knowing when the trial would move forward must have been weighing on the market.

120p must be on the cards in short i would have thought.

"I’m holding him to Q4. Others should to."

Or what?

toatie, its just for some sort of balance. Assumptions are piled upon assumptions which results in meaningless conclusions.

The conversation today has only highlighted that there are different views, with the current info available, on how to "value" AVCT. And is anybody the wiser?

No one has an idea on the market size (how many cancers will AVCT address for instance), or when AVCT might have a product ready for sale, no idea if it will be bought out (or not), or when that might happen, and the timing would dictate the buy out price offered. And if not bought out, how long do you hold for "true" value , a year, 10 years? No idea if it will be licensed or not, no idea when the next milestone payment will arrive or how much it will be.

(We could not even agree if there had been a delay or not to the trial?)

I am in, like all here, because of the potential, I just recognise that it is far too early to be dreaming of huge returns.

My view is that the LD purchase is very important going forward and has removed some downside to the SP.

My GUESS is that that will become more apparent as the next set of results come through. But hey, what do I know, but at least I recognise I don't know.

DTW, but what is a "fortune" to you? and by when?

You accept as we all do its a binary play (accept not so much now because of the diagnostics arm, but lets park that.)

Say, for the sake of this discussion you had not heard about this Stock and you had no inkling of the science involved.

Your broker says, after a brief description, "buy at 106p, its a binary play and you could make a fortune at some point in the undisclosed future. (Years).

Would you want more definition of times and expected prices? And if he could not supply these, what would you do?

You might look into the company and see what its history is on previous products?

Again, its not trying to be facetious, but simply to look at this through potentially fresh eyes to understand maybe why we are after all this time into a trial, its 105p

I am in the same boat as you. I don't know what the price will be at any given time in the future, but I do have my own personal targets to sell part or all of the stock and also a time line and to act accordingly depending on how the reality actually plays out.

DTW, "If it works, even remotely close to the PK data, then it is a unicorn, a holy grail (insert your preferred metaphor) and existing protocols for company valuations could be re-written"

Ok, fine, so what do think the SP will be and by when? (This is not a facetious question because it gets to the heart of investing and expected returns etc etc.)

Of course it takes as long as it takes. Why couldn't AVCT say something like?"... if all goes as well as it can, then in about 12-15 months the trial will be complete but this is always a difficult situation due to the frailty and poor health of the patients and could take longer, we will update the market as the trial progresses." And at least emphasise the likely elastic time lines involved in this sort of trial.?

Its not my fault when AVCT give out a timeline and then fail to meet it.

All I am trying to explain are maybe, the reasons why there is a seemingly chasm of a disconnect between the current SP and the the valuations bandied about on here.

Failed timelines have historically led to disappointment with this company. That is a fact. That is what the market is most likely pricing in. I am sure they are ready to be pleasantly suprised but in fact the "Casino" of AIM is due to PI's, not the big players who tend to weigh up risk/reward much more carefully and conservatively then many here.

ES thats unfair.

And you know it, and you have brought this straw man argument because you are simply choosing one AVCT statement over another to confirm your pov.

Its fine Doggy. Its also immaterial.

We are talking about the valuation of AVCt and this is a topic because of the assumed market inaccuracy at 105p.

All I have said as have others, is that, it is the variables involved that make any guesstimate pointless at this stage.

I listed some actual realities (as opposed to best potential outcomes) to try and show why the market may be more sceptical than most here.

Always realise the market is nowhere near as optimistic as the actual shareholders based on their collective experience of previous promising ideas & tech failing.

If all goes well the SP will react accordingly. but there are too many unknowns at this stage to go beyond it would seem about 120p-140p.

The very fact that it is stuck at the bottom of expectations suggests that the market will not be surprised if we do not get info this Q and that the waiting game may well have to go on.

The market could be wrong, but what have they go to lose? (You don't lose money by not being invested, the most that can be said is the unrealisation of potential profit. And the market does not lose any sleep about that with the choice of sectors and companies to choose from at any given time.)