Member Info for wyndrum

Just read ripley’s post. The company is attempting fantastic things. The SP is saying something else. I apologise for spelling this out but obviously not everyone gets it . Time will tell as it always does.

Thanks rich, a bluebird day today as it turns out. I accept that it’s a quiet day but why is it down instead of up? Why isn’t there a 3 or 4 percent increase rather than a fall? But it’s not just today. This has been going on for a little while now.. all I am saying is the market sees this diametrically opposite to us. One answer is we know more than the market but I don’t think that holds over a period of time. We shall see but my unemotional side says so-so results but better than expected news on the diagnostic front. But I am like most here, I will wait to see how this works out.

Then you explain to me why people are selling now just days away from an announcement? I am simply expressing the obvious interpretation of the market. Something that is discouraged here but nevertheless is in my opinion relevant. But as I mentioned up top what is your explanation?

The obvious answer is that the news is not going to be as good as expected. I have wrestled with this for several weeks now. I have not a clue what will be released but clearly the market is sceptical. Nothing is currently pointing to a fantastic breakthrough when the news is released. Sorry but I don’t know how else to read it.

is that why you sold earlier in the year Ripley, because you had a Margin call? (after the scale of the fall into the 40's/50's it would seem to make sense?)

so its not a spread bet then? its a purchase of stock in which case how is it exempt from CGT?

If it is a spread bet then it could simply be case that the majority/all of the risk is off set

"In the derivatives markets, to offset a futures position a trader enters an equivalent but opposite transaction that eliminates the delivery obligation of the physical underlying. The goal of offsetting is to reduce an investor's net position in an investment to zero so that no further gains or losses are experienced from that position."

That way IG would have no risk but would make money on spread?

if my understanding is correct all that happens on a spread bet is a bet on the stock going up or down that from the platforms pov, they have to make an assessment of their liability should a stock rise or fall.

Perhaps they believe they are in a position that should AVCT move substantially north they are open to a large hit and therefore are not taking on anymore longs on AVCt for that reason and therefore has nothing to do with actual stock allocation?

I don't think spud means anything anymore. (not in my exp. anyway)

But are you actually buying the shares when spread betting?

"Spread betting is a popular derivative product you can use to speculate on financial markets – such as forex, indices, commodities or shares – without taking ownership of the underlying asset. Instead, you’d be placing a bet on whether you think the price will rise or fall."

It reads to me that you are not, which is why you don't get any benefit of share ownership and avoid share ownership taxes.

because strangy, this BB forever beats its breast on how how the poor novice investor has to be protected against all the evil people out there who basically are shorters. The fact that now, it seems those very same posters who decried any talk of a cash raise as deliverately spreading FUD and trying to get people to sell their shares cheap etc etc are the very same who are saying how brilliant AVCT were to do what they did in a way no one here had the first idea was going on.

It highlights to me, that hindsight although lovely, will not make you rich in the stock market, so appreciating risk and allowing for some potential bad outcomes should not be quite so villified here.

And thats the other theme, when proven to be wrong these posters want it all very quickly swept under the carpet, or start to somehow re-write history as though they knew it was all going to be ok.

Anyway, nothing will change here so who cares.

in the context of these BB's neither being positive or negative, optimistic of pessimistic, has any effect on the SP or how the company does in winning contracts or not. These emotions are not useful in determining likely future outcomes for the SP/company

However, given the majority on these of BB's will "Want" good things to happen regarding the SP they quickly become echo chambers where no other view is tolerated. Any set back will be "temporary" any contract win "transformational".

And quite soon an unrealistic view can be seen as the "norm".

None of us can predict the future. You do your research, take a view and maybe trim/alter it as new info comes to light.

And that's it really... I'm not sure what else there is but for sure, holding hands and singing Kumbaya in a positive spirit will not make any difference. :0))

I have to say, all this talk of how brilliant the AVCT cash raise was (which I too agree with in spades) when compared to others in similar fields and how their SP has been decimated shows that the shorters who were thinking along those lines were probably correct in their assumption of what was likely to happen to the AVCT SP on a "Standard" raise.

I mention it because there were some very vocal posters here who became hysterical about either the lack of need of it and even if it came it would be a good thing for AVCT SP and how deranged anyone was who mentioned a potential cash raise could be weighing down the SP.

As it turns out AVCT very cleverly side stepped the trap by buying cash flow and a future profit line through LD.

As none of us saw that coming it would be perhaps incumbent to realise when looking at other stocks "there but for the Grace Of God go I"

(Or more bluntly, we are not quite as smart and well researched on this BB as we like to think.)

Ha! wouldn't of that been the best!

No, we fly out on the 27th

ATB

well, I will defo put it om my watchlist for 2023 so thanks for that.

But right now I am done shuffling and tweaking various stocks and levels.

My speculatives are:
HE1 (drill in the next 6-12 weeks)
AVCT. 2 announcements, 1 in Jan and 1 in feb
MMAG presumably a christmas trading update will come in Jan
HARL is a new one added but looks to be pretty rock solid so I expect to add to that as the months go by.

(The rest are largely keep and forget)

So all the very best to anyone who tunes in here and thanks for the tips.

I am off to the Alps now for a christmas/new year break (hopefully not my limbs!)

Merry Xmas all

JY, fwiw, I'm not sure how long you have been in this game but never over commit. Sooner or later you get caught out and it is a not a thing.)

just sayin' GL

Hi CI,

Here is just my take.
Its been on a good run and is starting to look a bit toppy now so i would expect a pullback. The target would be about 48-49p. Assuming its just going to continue the upwards trend the next target would be 61-63p.

(My worry is the cash at hand. Have they enough money in the bank to get to profitability in 2024? If they have then it looks very good, if not then it could stall around the 48p mark?

Certainly the FA looks promising and is one to watch i think.

All the best

hmm..... maybe there is a leak on an imminent RNS? (this isn't the tightest ship I have ever been on....)

The AVCT SP remains in a range from 95p-132p.

There is nearby resistance around 109-112p. If it holds above there then you would expect 120p to be next as a short term target.

The FA to support the SP is the recent RNs where the market (I think) had assumed no news this year. And although that has been proved to be true, the RNS saying a report in early Jan suggests the Trial is now over and there will be no more DE's (This I think was weighing on the market. The delay was being compounded by potential more delay if a 5th DE was flagged).

So muted response but supports the SP against the likelyhood of breaking below 95p.

(Its been pretty boring for 3 months from a TA POV. It has probably made the majority of traders wait now for a clear break out which means at least 132p or even 142 before the hot money comes in based on what has recently taken place.)

"Any chartists out there got predictions for where the SP could settle if avacta give a positive update for the ava6000?"

That's not how Charts work.

make your mind do you want me hear do you want me to go away.

Its no odds to me

(and a merry Christmas to you all too)