Member Info for wyndrum

IMorning D, I think for me the pace of change as we all know, has accelerated but we have grown up with the LTBH philosophy because it worked then.

My feeling is that over the last 20-30 years , things changed but of course it was gradual so no fundamental change was made to that historical approach. (So, different game, different rules is my thinking).

Ultimately I think we are starting to see the collapse of capitalism with this race to the bottom of profits through the never ending shaving of margins.

Govt (imo) should be getting smaller, but the reverse is happening so we are living in a "free" capitalist society with a communist type govt. (and that goes for the West generally).

The 2 don't really work together and we are seeing the strains now, which by my logic can only get worse.

Its a bit grim, but hey ho, buying and selling shares (gambling), allows me to fiddle while Rome burns. Ha Ha!!

Truly D I don't have the answers, so I hope I'm not coming across as though I do.

The "plan" thing (given its all arbitary), is to figure out in some rational way, as to what the profit sale price is and when it gets there, act on it.

(I like charts because of the mechanical aspect and targets it sets for you rather than deciding what they should be.)

Hi D,

the old adage of "run your winners and cut your losses" always sounds so trite but the reason it exists is because of the emotional pull to do the opposite.

Most people have an idea what they think a share is worth (lets say its 50p now and if all goes well 125p in a years time)

Then it jumps the very next week to 80p, so because of the quick profit you cash out pleased with your self on the profit made.

Share B is also 50p and also hopefully is expected to go to 125p the next year. This one disappoints a bit on results and falls to 43p but its probably market over reaction so you hang on it drifts down to mid high 30's but the next TU is due so a good chance to either cut losses or get back on track. and then it repeats and falls to 25p.
Of course the other one went on to 150p....

I know its a similar trite example but the psychology is to bank profit as asap because of the fear it will disappear and the looses don't want to be crystalized because of the pain of losing money.

Thats why i have learnt to have a plan and to stick to it. (Every time I do come unstuck its because I don't stick to the plan!)

Which tells me actually, its not so hard to play this game in fact. The hard part is to stick to the original idea and not get distracted by profits or losses.

Easy to say i know, but if if my experience is anything to go by its just practise rather than any great investment prowess.

Yes Isetown in principle yes EMH tends to be my first port of call.

I like Buffett but he was lucky (well not lucky, ....no, he was lucky), but he did (mostly) the right thing at the right time.

What i mean by that that back in the day 50's 60's etc the US was supreme and dominated industry so you could take a 10-20 year view. Today? I don't think so. Name any company in any industry that you would have any certainty will still be around in the next decade and at what price?

Look at UK blue chips like Banks, Retail and now even energy companies as the ground has been removed from underneath them with fast moving technical and political change.

Buffett himself was very wary of new tech and therefore missed out on huge gains.

The above is a bit tongue in cheek but my genuine point is, is that the old (largely) successful LTB&H of yesteryear is , imo no longer credible as a strategy in this fast moving and fast changing world.

And what has compounded it all, is the new access us PI's have to bet on any stock we like. And gambling is very very addictive and emotionally driven and therefore often predictable under certain stimuli.

So, imo, its hard now, very hard for PI's to consistently make money unless a wide portfolio is used and low expectations of returns are expected, so the various funds with their breadth of their portfolio's are back in fashion I think.

Sorry a bit OT there!

Sorry stokey, mis read your post.

Hi Roly,

Well just based on the SP chart I was a bit previous getting in at around on the 20p retrace. (I decided it might not go all the way down to the next, lower support level around the 15p-16p area.

I topped up with a few more at just above 16p to reduce the average a bit. so fingers crossed some of these orders materialise to give some fresh impetus to the SP. ATB

Stokey I don't want to get into an argument but the basic idea is to buy a stock (the current Share Price|) and sell at some time in the future for a profit.

The SP will never ever reflect the actual value of the company based on any sort of fundamental analysis. (its looking backwards and then projecting forwards on events that may or may not happen)

If you buy today you are effectively saying you know more than the combined market. (You may turn out to be right but the market has the same info as you and price it accordingly.)

If a 1,2 or 5 year view is being taken into account it becomes more risky to be able to think you can project say 5 years ahead on what will happen to the company.

I am not saying this type of analysis is wrong or anything like that, but it has its downsides and drawbacks too.

Others use the SP (more or less insolation), and look at shorter timeframes to achieve the same result, ie make a profit.

This does not always work either, but sometimes its does.

I have come to the conclusion the company and the SP are 2, for the most part, separate entities , one not being connected to the other.

I left Angle a little while ago. it was my intention just to let it sit there and get bought out but as it kept falling I decided it was getting too risky.

This is an example where I think, and its not always right obviously, the market is telling me something I best not ignore.

So although i had no idea what was going on the SP seemed to. (I think it was a bit before the canadian shut down RNS).

There is apart of me that just can't wait to get shot of AVCT. Its opaque as a business and you have no idea of cash burn or how test and trials are going and or timescales. And no idea what the competition is up to either.

It should be a great RNS but there is always a nagging doubt in these situations that some sort of curveball will be introduced.

Lets hope not and this time it goes to plan.

yes, thats a fair point D! 123p being the correct amount.

Hopefully all will be revealed next week. Might be a bit of FOMO from the more excitable investor today in case its a monday morning RNS.

Fingers still crossed.

Ha! I hope I don't too!

I am quite Zen about buying and selling shares.

Nothing I do makes any difference. The paranoia I used to suffer from years ago has quietly disappeared now.

Every time I buy, I know the SP has two options.

Because I was not overly confident a bottom had been reached I bought an amount to reflect that. (About half my allocated budget)

So, 2 things now for me, I only look at close of play prices so it may yet pop back up but if it closes around 50-51p then I would expect a fall to around 48p and if it did would add some more at that price with the rest of the budget put by.

All the best

Auro,

Why do this?

See, trying to discredit me on other stocks to negate my view on a totally unrelated topic.

I made money out of EVE twice when it was for sale getting in and out on two spikes with 40% profit made overall. (I spent about 12 months warning the EVE BB that it was more likely than not that it would go bust by the way. I am not immune to trying to make money on spikes.)

I managed to get out at breakeven on HE1 when the surprise RNS was issued. Note that: "Surprise" RNS.

Well up now on MMAG

Harl: I am 20% underwater currently even with a top up at 16p.

However as I never over commit to speculative stocks it does not excise me as much as it seems you.

And for the record I have over 58,000 shares in AVCT having bought a few thousand more at 23p yesterday morning when liquidating HE1.

But who cares, (apart from you obviously)

There is no agenda here Ice. Baffy said all the talk of deadlines was Paranoia. I merely pointed out that the actual FACTS of avct and missed deadlines is 100% and within those missed deadlines the eventual news was not as good as expected.

This BB is extreme in its desire to never ever discuss any outcome than simply the very best one.

Any alternative scenario is often reported as being disruptive, or the poster is personally abused so as to try to make their opinion worthless, or strawman arguments raised in response. Any poster who does have the temerity to agree is then classed as the same poster all along with multiple accounts!

You may think this is all normal and perfectly acceptable on an Investment BB but I don't.

As it is I am happy to wait to see this through and will be surprised if AS misses this latest deadline. But it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will, either.

Mr Predictable strikes again....(Quel surprise)

Baffy, its not Paranoia.

In the 30 odd months I have been a shareholder AVCT have never met a deadline.

The upshot has been that delays have coincided (when eventually reported) with less good news than expected at the time.

As a result, as this Trial is extremely important to the AVCT valuation, a "missed" deadline may spook the market.

(As it is, this trial is running over and even with a promised up date in Q4 being missed, an RNS had to be issued in December to reassure the market that it was only a couple of weeks away.)

So its reasonable to expect news in the next few trading days. After all, its only what AS has promised so it should happen.

(I seem to remember quite a furore when I mentioned there was already a delay and some posters being very rude saying there was not a delay because Q4 was given as the latest date for the results. )

Hi Yanis,

that was a good call on Harl. (and Mmag too, thanks!)

All the best

RR, I agree with your reasoning.

I wonder (we will probably never know), if when AVCt spoke to their broker to raise money they said the market was tricky and that the professionals might be wary after the last cash raise at 120p on the back of the LFT promise and then saw that fizzle out, and that PI's might not be that keen either on the basis that those who were already invested might not have enough extra cash that had not already been input and those that didn't know AVCT so well, would just see another high risk Bio med short of money and might be reluctant.

I wonder if was the broker suggesting a buy out of LD, as it changed the focus of the raise and was complimentary to one side of the business and all of a sudden made that arm profitable which again, potentially allows a different valuation should a split sell off ever be needed?

I think it has been the absolute game changer for AVCT to being a (more) sustainable business while the long term therapy development continues.

All of a sudden there are multiple business options available.

Hi D, I got back a couple of days ago and had a very nice time thanks.

Yes, HE1 is still there because they have the money but times scales are opaque right now. I took the money out and into AVCT , HARL and ONC.

I will probably wait either for a lower SP at HE1 (ideally 4p to buy or less), or an update on a rig being found.

Yes MMAG, is looking ok, so thats good. AVCT is worth a lot to me per penny movement.

I absolutely sympathise with your plight. I feel I have experienced exactly what you have and are, currently going through.

My "epiphany" I think was when I stopped trying to get rich quick and stopped chasing multi baggers. Just went for solid companies in growth markets. A steady 10% plus annual gain and maybe a few% in divs soons turns the ship around.

So my speculatives are a relatively small part of the overall portfolio, but I trade them more as they tend to be more volatile and give opportunity for money to be made.

But as for the AVCT BB, its a joke. The conceit of the posters who think they know whats going on is breath taking. Hopefully it all comes good but it was a high risk bet from the start with the only concrete example of what the company says as to what it produced was the LFT debacle. Not a great backdrop.

Still, we will know soon enough and fingers are very firmly crossed.

All the best to you, as always.

Thanks CI, Obviously I think there is more chance of a bottom at 53p than further falls or I would have waited longer. On balance I think its the relatively gradual unwinding of a again relatively small move (10%) of the high that makes me think this is it.
But who knows....And as I always say, at some stage you have to pull the trigger.

in a "classic" chart move it will top out at around 140p probably this week, maybe Monday, in the expectation of a Monday or Tuesday RNS. At that stage it would look quite toppy so if no RNS arrived then a retrace to around 128-132p would be most likely.

This retrace would allow the relatively overbought SP to unwind to make room for further upward moves.

If good news in the form of an RNS does drop while the SP is around 140p say, then the SP will re-rate upwards and people who use charts to time entry will probably wait for the dust to settle before entering. (I would not expect this to have any material impact on the SP as a very sharp upward move will cause a lot of volatility in its own right as many will bank profit, and some of it might have been quickly made, with others buying in on any intraday dip.

well, due to HE1 going on the back burner I have released funds from there and put some into ONC as it has come off the top and to a level that has a fair chance of bouncing off back upwards.