Member Info for wyndrum

Here we go.

Without boring you all, and obviouly do what you like but I fell out with the AVCt BB as I predicted that the company (that in Covid was developing a LFT) was, due to delays, going to miss the boat and further, the delays suggested there were problems going on behind the scenes. That particular BB is a very offensively rude, vindictive bunch and that contrary opinion sent a few of them over the edge. (Their emotions got the better of them). It turned out I was right and they have never forgiven me.
(They also seem to think my views alter the SP of any company I talk about, which shows I think, quite how demented they are.)

Thanks Gjeko, (i bought recently so currently in profit and will add on retraces as and when I think it appropriate. ATB

Justy, Company News and the SP movements are of course interlinked, much more so than advocates of either seem often to accept, one being Fundamental analysis (FA) and the other Technical analysis TA)

That does not mean however the the SP represents the "value" of the company. The fundamental approach which is based on past results and future prospects is always going to be a matter of opinion and its these opinions that make a market.

TA "works" on the premise that its people that buy and sell shares and that supply and demand determines whatever the SP is, not the company.

And as its people and therefore crowds, crowd behaviour is predictable under certain stimuli. Fear and greed being the most powerful and thats what drives people to buy and sell, in this example shares.

All chart patterns are, are a graphical representation of what the crowd is thinking and if the circumstance repeat themselves so the actions of the crowd repeats itself and so the chart patterns do as well. So when a popular chart pattern forms then it becomes an increased chance of what will happen next.

And thats the crux. Nothing is guaranteed, no future outcome is being predicted in any final sense. It is simply an odds game. When certain things align the odds increase of what is likely to happen next.

When a SP hits a certain mark from a TA POV the 2 options are always there, it will either fall or go up. All TA is trying to do is say which one is most likely.

Indicators (and there are many), are to increase the odds when overlayed onto a chart pattern, of increasing the odds of the next move.

So personally as I do not have the facility to short, Itry and find companies that have a good chance of moving up on their fundamentals. Then its a case of timing entry and I use TA to do that. I will also trade if they get to level where the odds are very high that it is likely to fall back with a view to buying in again at a lower price.

Thats why using TA you need a system or plan. If A happens I will do B (and when A happens then you do B! otherwise there is no plan!)

Its not for everyone because the emotional pull is simply too great. (which is why for me it works more often than not.) ATB

Hi Hedge,

I did ok out of EVE overall (managed to get in and out on 2 spikes just prior to them going bust.)

Certainly on small companies charts are less reliable, but for me the RSI is very reliable to help time exit and entry.

Mrindia, I think the self awareness you display is very valid as that allows you not to go into an area you would be uncomfortable with. Using Charts (TA) is largely a mechanical system and as a result you HAVE to divorce any emotional attachment to what you are doing away from the company. You don't win every one by any means but on balance as long as you make more than you lose then its happy days.

Mrindia, as we all know stocks never go up in a straight line and even if it is a non stop success story it will still be a ziz-zag upward pattern.

There are all sorts of technical indicators (which are simply algorithms of the SP) that suggest what is most likely next.

It just so happens there is a "relative Strength" Indicator RSI which has a numerical range between 1-100, in my experience when it rises to 80 it is due for a fall/retrace. That is where it currently is now at 2,42p.

For instance I think it is most likely to fall back to 2.05p at which time I will buy some more.

This does not mean it can't go higher from here, just that the odds say its more likely to fall than go up.

just my opinion of course, DYOR etc

Mrindia,

its actually pretty toppy right now from a chart perspective and is likely to fall a bit to unwind this technical over bought price

well the RSi is at 80 so its due a fall any time now. The thing is 31.6p is the obvious retrace target.

On the one hand it "feels" to far to fall but on the other the market is often (surprisingly) very kind to let stragglers back in if they missed it first time round.

Another alternative is that it carries on rising tomorrow, lets be bold and say 42.5p, and then the unwinding would likely be back to the37.5p support

Given nothing is certain I think it is more likely to rise to about 38p tomorrow before falling.

My play (fwiw) is not to rush to sell any just yet (ie first thing tomorrow) unless we get to about 42p plus tomorrow and then I will, with an expectation to get back in around 37.5p, and try to scalp 10%.

If it does fall from around here (37p ish) I will not sell but add more when I see an area where I think the retrace has finished. just my opinion, DYOR etc

Thanks Ups,

The HL chart i am using does not show that which is why I didn't see it.

It looks to be that it has hit the 37.5p resistance and will retracae a bit now as the RSI is going to be a bit toppy at the close!

Hi Mowzer, I do think of you after you posted your diagnosis and I am sorry to hear of the pain you are in.

The comparison I make to the LFT is largely based on what AS said through that time. The LFT never failed because of Porton Down or corruption.

Clearly the TT was a problem, the design of the apparatus I think was more complex than the other, albeit less reliable tests and obviously the fact that next to no commercial sales were made months before omicron, fleshes out that it was the test itself that was the problem maybe and probably including the uncompetitive cost.

This trial is completely different as a product and methodology but the similarities are its late and deadlines have been missed with no explanation thus far. We don't know why there has been a delay, There was talk of no C4 at one stage and now there is one and its taken longer than any here expected. All we know is that we will get a "progress" report (in early Jan) which again is pretty ambiguous as a word to use.

The mainstay of my belief that it will be good news is that the hospitals have been recruiting for the 1b part of the trial.

But as usual by missing these self imposed deadlines AS puts shareholders under unnecessary pressure as to try to double guess whats going on.

It really is poor given that its a high risk area to invest in in the first place without compounding it with misleading comms.

There you go Ice, you have just passed on some sage advice.

(RNS's give you latest news, and the rest you can get yourself and do your own dot-joining).

"Price goes down the FUDers say it doesn’t work."

Who says it doesn't work

You are simply lying to carry on your biased ramping as you routinely do.

"So much concern for other peoples money….."

Yes, actually Ripley, I do have concern for others here.

That's about the only benefit these BB's have is to pass on actual investing experience so as to help others not make the same mistakes that perhaps have gone before.

its cautious for me largo.

Ups, where is this 40p target coming from?

I can see 37.5 I can see even 42.5p but 45p looks the most obvious resistance, but for the life of me I can't see 40p?

Cheers

it absolutely beggars belief with some here.

We had all this with the LFT. Could not fail, worth billions, most exquisite test known to the world, signing deals in the background, dealing with elite sports companies. But at the same time there was delay after delay culminating in the test being withdrawn just as it was released to the public, with a year later having been told it was going to be adjusted to take on Omicron, no further news.

Here we are with a trial that was meant to be completed in mid summer, then extended to Q4, with update promised in "early Jan" now missed.

Yet none of you ever urge caution.

As I say it beggers belief when you have first hand factual evidence of unexpected, left field disappointment of this company and its misleading comments of its CEO, that you can be so blase with your own guesswork on whats going on.

I am not saying its going to fail or there are problems with it simply because I have no idea whats going on, but for goodness sake at least have the humility to stop this ramping on your own guesswork that was found to be wanting last time out.

i imagine now it removes the potential problem of drilling in the "rainy season" for him

I don't sdee that as particulalrly large Wayne.

As i mentioned previously when it gets to this stage, ie any day with make or break news, it concentrates the minds of many to make sure that if there was bad news they are not over committed.

All the time its months away, there is time potentially, to sell and buy back and all the rest of it, but we are fast approaching the single most important RNS of this company's history with no timeline left to trim holdings.

Fear is as powerful as greed in these matters.

Well, that would be very good indeed!

Fingers crossed!!

ripley " A lot of this selling is most likely traders losing patience and generally being poorly researched. They had a time frame in mind. It’s been missed. They sell."

If they had done their research they would have noted from avct, that an update was due in Q4 that was missed with an acknowledgement of that with an Early Jan update that has been missed.

It was not their time frame it was AVCT's.

So your whole post is skewed and inaccurate to give an entirely false version of the facts.

That figures.....