Member Info for wyndrum

Yeah Hano, thats it, got me again.....

I only ever the SP to fall never to rise... because I don't own any?

But if I don't own any what do I care? Oh... hold on, I do want to buy some but at a lower price.... You think I might have already done that prior to the news when the SP was much lower than now... Maybe It would suit me for the SP to be higher in that case?

Maybe I don't think whats posted here makes any difference. (God knows there's been a history of super positive posts and it has not made any difference so why you think only what you perceive as unhelpful comments affect the SP.)

Paranoia..."unjustified suspicion and mistrust of other people or their actions:"

Hano, you are simply paranoid, you do realise that don't you?

What benefit is there in forcing the SP down? I can only think, you think, that it allows the whole market to buy in at a lower price (assuming anyone wants to sell through fear and panic rather than maybe, I dunno banking some profit?)

Good luck for the MM's to deal with that sunami of demand.

only there can't be any left after the weeks and weeks of advice to "chomp away"....

The news is out, people had already bought their shares on the basis that the news would be good. Nobody wants the SP to go down from here.

You think the SP has peaked at 153p? and that somehow forcing it down (how exactly?) by 6% will now make the difference?

I think any shorts still going are simply a hedge on any potential unforeseen failure in the trial for bigger holders. (otherwise they would be out by now.) so who exactly is it that wants the SP to fall?

Do you think every time any stock ever falls its foul play?

This BB is populated by a bunch of paranoid Investors and I use the term investors advisedly.

imo Kevin thats a strategy that is likely doomed for the average PI.

"we will sell all we can make". "Inking deals" "Best test in the world" Supplying Elite Sports Teams"

The CEO of ADV had the "champagne on ice" prior to revealing a duster.

I think the CEO of ODX might have a few memorable quotes to.

Aim is littered with them.

So thats the last indicator I would use (imo dyor etc)

RM: " If the answer to each question here is yes, then in my view, Phase1a is/was pivotal !!! I'd welcome any counter."

I'm trying. (Realise I am simply trying to square away the impression that I share with almost all here that this was absolutely barnstorming news with a frankly underwhelming SP reaction.)

Everything stated is correct (insofar as it goes) therefore, logically why didn't the SP go higher? Why, given the market potential for this tech, is this company still valued at £400m?

Either the market is unaware of what was/is trying to be achieved and/or does not read RNS's and as a result has not valued the company correctly, (I think is unlikely given we have all seen how quickly many (small) relatively obscure stocks can shoot up on news, given the power of social media.) Or they require actual numbers

So, i think it could be qualification of those statements. There is a difference in saying" its Pivotal, we have increased the effectiveness of DOX by 15%!" and saying "its Pivotal, we have increased the effectiveness of DOX by 90%"

So the market is waiting for this Data-rich trial to actually reveal the data in numbers.

Or thridy, this is what the valuation is based on accepting that it is working very well, but currently taking into account the length of time it will take until actual money goes into AVCT's bank account.

(By the way its not "FUD" to express doubts or question statements unless you want to live in a society where that is banned. How would you feel if reporters could not publically, critically confront politicians statements for instance?)

SGS "nice summary of the facts we have been presented with.
Why would anybody dispute them unless they have ulterior motives?"

Nice line to close down any other view... good one.

How well does it work then? Its unequivocal, ok it works but how effectively, 5%? 10? 50? 90%?

Its significantly better, ok but that in science context can be less meaningful than we might assume. Which meaning is it?

Whether we like it or not AS has a very poor record of being somewhat misleading with his words.

He could have said its performing as well as it did in the mice phase, or even better, if it is. But he chooses words that can be interpreted by the level of enthusiasm the recipient has for the subject.

Thats why I think ultimately it was a good reaction with the SP but hardly in line with what is assumed here for such a breakthrough.

I presume Science Day will at last put this to rest with the detail required but given now we are in a MTD phase (that apparently was not necessary in cohort 3 but for some reason is now), but given the trial is continuing for another 6-9 months maybe revealed in-depth data will be put back until completion? I hope not.

ok, but it just seems to me a basic and fundamental question.

Many posts over the last few days have wondered why the SP is as low as it is.

So how in that case do those posters know what is fair value? Because otherwise how will you ever know when to sell?

And why do think they are right and the market is wrong?
Is it research? (Implying the market is not aware of what has been announced?)
Is it possible on this BB ever to discuss anything investment related with people who hold different views?

if we ignore some of the silly posts on all sides today, we are left with the age old conundrum of a share price and its relation to the company.

Many here ignore the the day to day movements of the SP as being irrelevant because they do not intend to sell today or even in the near future.

However there will be a day when they do. The SP will be pretty important then I guess?

So, I am sure the same argument will prevail: namely on that day, whenever it is, the SP will drastically undervalue the company itself in the eyes of the potential seller.

So, what is the plan? do LT holders have a price and when that price is hit (whenever it is), they will sell, or do they continually tack and raise their selling point and put off that decision for some time in the future, that may never come?

I found most of the exchanges today pointless as I am sure many have too, but it does highlight that for many that claim to have no interest in the SP they seem to in fact, be very interested.

So, do LTB&H's have a price or just get a kick out of paper wealth?

Some have been here for years and depending on their entry point would have made potentially quite low returns when averaged out over time, and as this company has yet to monitize its tech the SP is going to be news driven and therefore volatile with quite large swings

I am always surprised at the attraction of such high risk stocks for LTB&H as that type of company seems to be the polar opposite of that being a successful strategy. And at the same time claim to have little or no interest in the SP.

It seems at best confusing to me, or disingenuous.

Anyway, is there a plan, or is it just being at the behest of events and fingers crossed it all works out?

And thats not perhaps as rude as it sounds. This week AVCT released fantastic news and the SP moved 14% on the day but is only a few percentage points above its 142p rise that it has been at a few times over the last 12 months and substantially off its 285p high. Which begs the question, what news in the short term will get it above that, given the science day will flesh out what the RNS has already stated which resulted with a SP around an intraday high of 264p?

So do you care about the SP or not?

well, it might fall some more but its close enough for me so i added a few just now.

Oh my God ripley. you promise?

Its you thats been the problem with all your silly insults.

This will be, what the 5th time you have filtered me.

Please, please for the love of God mean it this time.

And as usual ripley when confronted with a reasoned reply that answers your assertions, you default to childish insults.

ripley,
I buy and sell based on short term indicators and what the market trends are and my intepretation of them.

As a result I can buy one week sell the next and buy again the week after. So what?

It has no influence on the long term success or not of AVCT and nor does anyone else's views here.

I don't "worry" about outcomes. I just try to look at as many as I can realistically foresee and weight them accordingly.

I seem to remember the June (covid) cash raise came just after AS said he would not do one.

Starbrights post summed up my view pretty well too as it happens.

This stock will either be a success or it won't. I am happy to stay in thus far as it still looks very promising of further SP appreciation from here. I recognise I have no idea what in fact will happen or more importantly when and bet accordingly.

How anyone can look 2-5 years ahead is beyond me.

As for another cash raise which you say AVCT are already fully funded: What if they announce at the science day that they want £Xm to acquire another diagnostic company (which they have already signposted they want to do more M&A stuff.)

You might be surprised but I won't be. I don't know that they will, but given who they have invited I think its at least possible.

But hey, who cares, it won't make any difference to you or me. Neither of us influence what AVCT do or what the resulting SP will be.

I have no idea why you get so excised all the time about this.

Think what you like.

Read the comments from AS and interviews and RNS's over the course of the pandemic. He could not have been any more bullish.

Also at the time he predicted the covid market would carry on being worth billions for the next 2-5 years.

So, based on historical fact I take all CEO's pronouncements with a grain of salt.

I have never said the trial will fail, I have only ever posted it looked like it would be a success, I have only ever posted that I have stayed in this stock for the outcome of this therapy.

So far so good. I just don't take a 10 year view on it thats all.

yep thats what I said because I think Gene therapy will replace drugs.

Currently AVCT is still 18 months at least before the 2nd part of the trial finishes.

I have no idea whats coming tomorrow on this front, do you?

However I don't expect to be in this stock long enough (hopefully) for it to be an issue.

As Starbrights post pointed out, II's are much more wary than the majority here.

But like I say I like to swap ideas and thoughts.

Due to the uncertainty of life I don't look to the long term. I see no virtue in taking 20 years to get rich If I can do it 1 for instance. But thats me. You do your own thing.

"Again I am interested, because really there is no reason for you to do what you."

Really? there's that assumptive nature coming to the fore again.

I try to identify companies that have solid enough near term fundamentals that suggest the SP will likely rise rather than fall.

A colleague put me on to AVCT in June soon to be 3 years, ago because of the LFT potential.

BB's will obviously and understandably put the bull case forward so it is useful to gauge what the best case upside might be.

As for me posting, well , I enjoy it (less here obviously, but now its all water off a ducks back), to swap ideas and views with others, while events unfold.

I (in hindsight) naively thought my experience of nearly 50 years, as a teenager starting off on stock picking and naturally making every single mistake in the book might be able to pass on that experience to maybe alert others to the obvious pitfalls I fell into and for them to either avoid or at least be aware of.

Unfortunately PL75 initially & immediately and the few that were his pals at the time (some of whom I think are still here but under new names due to being banned for their posting style), took against me for my contrary views (I think I had the temerity to say in August on the first missed deadline that perhaps all was not well, :0)) and the rest is as they say, history.

The SP time intervals should be used in conjunction with your expected time to keep the stock.

If you want to day trade (ie close the position by the close of trading), then 1 min 5min and 15min charts are useful.

However if you expect to hold the stock a few days to a few weeks then the close of play daily prices should be used.

The RSI and chart patterns will be quite different to each other depending on the time interval used.

Indeed I did Minnaboo and the money it went into went up 50%. (HEMO)

I could have left it in AVCT but there was a risk that the results would not have been as good as they were, and as AS had missed his own self imposed deadlines (again) and historically that pressages bad news, it was to me a rational decision to make use the trading part of my holding to work somewhere else where I saw better potential and less risk.

I put more in around 130p when I posted that it looked the SP had more chance of rising that falling last week.

I sold some yesterday and jumped back in 5% lower down and as we speak the SP is around 5% higher.

So don't worry about me.

day trading is hard. Trading is also hard. you can't be emotional, you have to find a system that works (ie more often than not|)

Thats why, for all the stick you give me , I don't "care" about the company. That allows me to (if I want), to sell when I think it might fall to come back in lower down. Once you have an emotional attachement to a company it makes decisions much harder to make. And the longer you hold a stock so the attachment is likely to form an ever stronger bond.

I don't expect to win every trade so i don't get as excited (as many seem to here on my behalf) if i lose. Thats why I don't over commit so it does not hurt me emotionally when I do.

The discipline is easy for me to list but in reality very few can do it and the ones who can get away with it, have had to learn the hard way over probably quite a long period.

But because it looks easy, lots do it (or try to), and fail giving the strategy a very high failure rate which in turn discredits it as a form of making money.

In that case Awax why does any company that has been properly researched fail?

Its thats easy, is it?

"ha ha" indeed.

Morning D, at least there is some respite after the EVE debacle for you and some others I think?

Anyway, long may it continue. GLA

Riesgo,

I don't know. MTD was mentioned but I don't know how they can get to that answer in just another 2 cohorts given the timescales set of 6 months.

Maybe it will be clearer after science day and the published results show a more obvious trajectory to that goal.

The news the market wants now I think is more substance. How much side effects were apparent. We know they were reduced but by a lot, almost entirely, or a bit? Were all side effects reduced or are some still present? I also think there needs to be some sign post of how much is this tech worth, other than just looking at what the overall market is currently worth which is far to broad bench mark to make any reasonable valuation on.

I know we bandy stuff about, but how much can AVCT expect to charge for this and what type of tumour will first be targeted? How quickly and what rate will it come to market?

Will there be a "short cut" on phase b given the initial results in this part of the trial, or will it simply take longer than forecast. (So far 1a will take at least twice as long as originally forecast. will p2 be the same?)

Lots of unknowns that I think the market will need some reasonable guidance on so as to try and re-value the company .

Ultimately I think the sp is going to around 180-190 prior to the science day and then it depends on what is revealed on the day. (imo dyor etc)