Member Info for wyndrum

cj, how do you know the delay was caused by a patient dying?

All I am suggesting is that given the news some find it odd that the SP is falling. I am simply giving a scenario why that might be the case.

There is no need for you to off on one with all your assumptions.

"The number of Dose Escalations and their time frames is not within Dr Smith's gift."

Really? then why did he say there would be 4? why did he say before4 4 DE that MTD may never be found? Why has he given a time frame for completion of first half 2023?

Why say all these things if he has no control over any of it? why not say "this is what we expect but we are not in control of the DE's?"

"What will it take?"

I know it sounds great and maybe it is, but the 5th DE was not at face value good news. Its another delay, and given AS's record the market will not assume that june/july will be the end of it. At some stage this has to go to market, but when?

And to be fair it does not add up. There was talk from AS that MTD might not be found. This led to speculation that a 4th DE might not be needed but we had a 4th DE and that took longer to complete than anybody expected, now we get MTD is back on the table? but why, if it was not a requirement needed by AVCT previously?

And although many here don't seem to care, time is actually of the essence and these continual delays leave the market unsure as to where AVCT actually is.

The Science day will need to answer these questions and hopefully will, but the uncertainty means that some see this as increased risk and therefore adjust holdings accordingly.

It will still be what it will be, but I think it might explain why the market has such a muted response on the SP.

Ultimately and as usual its poor comms again from AVCT.

Shares have a taken a bit of a hit due to an unexpected cash raise. However from a chart perspective they have fallen to a support so anyone thinking about entering you have the chart on your side (whatever thats worth!)

Anyway I have added (again fwiw! :0))

Its a weird thing charts, but the pull back from the mentally over bought few days last week, suggested 2.45p was the retrace target.

Anyway I tried to buy at that level this morning but by the time I hit "buy" it was 2.5p, but thats ok.

Fingers crossed it holds.

it seems to be the nature of the beast. Delays are the name of this game.

Nothing happens (or seems to) ahead of any forecast, these delays lead to uncertainty within the market.

This latest delay (DE5 and who knows how many more, and thats not to be neggo but why would it finish this summer? DE4 was meant to be the end, wasn't it?) This delay puts back the next step which was targeted to last a year but why would that be accurate?

So when will this come to market (assuming there is no phase 3 which sounds reasonable), 2-3 years from now?

Is there funding for that long? maybe, maybe not, so many variables that are completely unforecastable.

The market is clearly wary. It can see the potential but I think, can't see yet how or when it gets to market.

In which case, how do you (the market) value it? I hope Science day deals with all of this otherwise its going to be a slow grind unless big pharma does the decent thing....

HH "The big fish are loading up - SP being held at these levels to fill orders and their seems to be sellers who are happy to oblige."

Your assumption is that the current SP is artificially low and being deliberately held back creating a false market. How do you know that?

I think its important because the conclusion you are drawing is that you should ignore the SP because it is below what you think it should be and therefore irrelevant. Thats fine but you have utterly no supporting evidence for this conclusion but by taking it on you close your mind to any alternative.

Call it positive bias, or whatever you like but that "seeing what you want to see" can be very expensive in this game.

There are of course, alternatives to your unsupported theory.

well, its either good news (and he can't talk about it just yet), or its bad news.

Could be either, so on balance whats more likely?

Then a close of 23p or above would be very positive.

22.5p is quite the resistance. still break that, and it opens up 26p as the new recent high to go for which is around 30% from here.

The downside is its flirting with a recent (weak) support of 19.5-20p so it needs to hold that otherwise the mid/hogh teens beckon again.

but given the 2 options the recent spike suggests the trend is up rather than down. (imo, dyor etc etc)

RAH "Objectively, there is no reasonable explanation as to why the reaction has been so muted."

except there are reasons (whether or not they are justified I have no idea) and some time ago now I expressed a view that perhaps when the news did come through that maybe the market had already priced in the good news to explain why the SP could not break above 142p, so it turns out that the confirmation was worth an extra 10%.

The next stop is the science day to flesh out exactly how good the tech is.

you realise Hurst the 12 month close-of-day high is 161.5p

As predictions go its hardly aiming for the stars, expecting 2% rise...

Paul, I though the fund raise tied into the purchase of LD was very shrewd. I have said that a few times than and since.

Clearly AVCT want to develop this side of the business and as quickly as possible, hence the initial buy with more M&A promised.

I can see the therapy business being sold and some of the money used to develop further and quicker this area of the business. (Otherwise I don't see how they fund quickly more buys)

My thinking is AVCT won't be able to turn away a serious offer but might want to hang on to the other bit and therefore will split the business.

This company has had huge potential for a long time but we are now coming to the end of the first phase (not the trial), whereby it has commercial options that allow a number of avenues to be explored before deciding on exactly which path to take is starting to crystalise.

Paul, Its not avoided by me. I don't know how many times to say it. I bought a core holding for this side of the business to see if it could deliver and so far so good.

But my immediate focus is on the SP not the company. So I try to gauge why it appears to be undervalued. Is it a mismatch, is it just the caution the market takes on this type of company, is it actually, given the timescale of this being monitised, a fair valuation, what are the risks of failure?

I try to explore the downsides, because... get this... If I can reason away the downsides then guess whats left?

If I think there is more cause for the SP to go up than down, then its just a question of timing an entry/top up price.

I am more interested in maximising profits over as short a timescale as possible. To do that the SP is the fundamental piece of the jigsaw, which is why I concentrate on that.

I don't know if you have read any of my posts on TA BV, so I will take this at face value.

TA does not predict anything. All things being equal it will highlight certain prices and levels and targets that are most likely to occur.

By its vary nature the outlook/forecast can change each day depending on the price action of that day. So its not long term in the way a LTB&H might view the stock. (This obvious fact seems to irritate many here for some reason.)

As for RNS's. That then becomes new news which often affects the SP. TA is not predicting that type of event, nor does it claim to.

On Day Trading (which is different to just "trading"), typically you would not hold a position when likely index-moving news was due to be released. (On US Bonds it was typically 3:00, if memory serves).

So, if/when an RNS drops a trader if not holding a position will probably wait a day or two to see how the SP reacts and settles down and then takes a more considered view for the course of action.

Thanks Mike.

I think you have that the other way round... What a start to the day, thank you.

Ripley I already knew you idiot... brilliant!

ha ha so I am not binned after all... (talk about walking into a door..)

I accept the sentiment Mike, but what evidence do you have or thought process that the stock will likely fall around 25%.

What scenario can you see that would allow that to happen.?

I'll play devils advocate here but if you ultimately have unrealistic goals of only buying in at a much lower price, than the psychological pressure increases should the SP rise. Say it goes back to 40p will you buy then, when you could have bought at 35p? and then all of a sudden its 50p and you feel you have missed the boat.

If you have a spread bet account you don't hold the shares so there is a risk that say, AVCT sell their therapeutics arm for £3b say, and hold on to the Diagnostics which is valued at say, 40p per share but AVCT give a £15 per share spec divi back to compensate shareholders.

That would be funny.....