Member Info for wyndrum

Thanks for making the effort Strangy.

It wasn't the post to Hurst actually if you reread, it was Rich.

I don't know what morals you are referring to, by the way that I am so hypocritical about.

All I am doing this morning is expressing my views on what others are posting.

I am quite capable of trading the SP of the company and at the same time looking at the business itself. The two are different and if you still can't see that then I can't help. (A very brief example. EVE the mattress maker went bust last year, something I had thought the most likely out come for maybe 12-18 months previously. However it did not stop me trading profitably two separate 40% daily spikes in the SP)

My view (AVCT) which hasn't changed is that a buy out will come this year (i don't know obviously, but that is what I think is most likely.)

Some people have posted there is a moral case to AVCT letting a large company with more resource get this to market sooner than avct. My post was simply to ask the question, is that necessarilly true?

My post was about ava6k which I could not see how another co. would materially shortcut the route to market at this stage. AVA6k would be a huge help to many thousands and therefore it is hardly a small thing.

As for the other things that AVCT do and they can only do one thing at a time. I thought that was quite an inaccurate thing to say. They run diagnostics, they have developed TMAC and the others to the stage where they are close to trial so clearly they have developed many applications.

I don't know why simply expressing a view is so contentious here other than some are simply determined to insult me for any or no reason.

I do not profess to be the smartest knife in the block but in the INVESTMENT world healthy scepticism is no bad thing and short not be drowned out by others just because the don't like the POV.

And I would remind you all that the loudest voices here against me personally were just as loud (and personally abusive)when they said I was an idiot for my views on the development of the LFT. They were wrong, so while you may think I am pretty stupid you should also realise there are plenty here much dumber than me.

I get that RR, but the AVA 6k is a huge step, relatively immediately, to helping patients.

I have to say the one area that I have been surprised about is the public lack of news from the companies that give AVCT milestone payments for using and developing their tech. Years have passed and yet it just seems to grind on. (I am perhaps falsely assuming), but the milestone payments seem relatively small, which suggests there is still a lot of testing and researching and developing going on, and these are huge companies.

I just am not sure if we are over egging the speed thing of big Pharma getting involved.

Just a thought.

I try and keep up with various links and arguments as to if AVCT should be offered a buy out it will save time to get it to market because AVCt would take a very long time but I can't see why?

AVCT already have the expertise and knowledge so the best that can happen is that big Pharma keep all the staff on but their people will still to be educated etc as to how it works, read and understand the date and get up to speed etc. That might be nothing but it won't be quicker then leaving the man-power in place that is there already. (I am sure it will be a step back to go 2 steps forward time wise.)

So all they bring is money and more man power. But is it a lack of scientists that is holding at this stage, AVCT back?

lets assume we get MTD by the summer which now seems the latest timeframe for this part of the trial to finish. Then we start the second bit. How does big Pharma speed that up. We have all the data and we are recruiting already for it. we will know the doses to now be used and assuming there are no surprises then all the end of the trial will tell us is how good the degree of effectiveness is. (so far I don't see any time advantage for selling).

Whats after that? Charging any company who wants to use it? why do we need big Pharma for that?

By now AVCT can borrow and hire who and as much as they like, The other strings to the bow can be developed in house

I just don't see at this stage now, what big pharma bring to the party to get ava6k to market quicker? (or the buy out will be a lot more than maybe we were expecting because now it won't be timeline/moral case but simply an economic one of a company wanting to secure long term profits?)

yes I could offer some reasons but you have absolutely no interest in hearing any other view than does not correspond to your own

Rich. On monday it opened at 142p so about a 12% gain in a week. Might be a reason

Its always difficult to know when to buy (I find selling actually easier).

I guess it goes back to a "plan" thing. What criteria does the individual have for picking a stock? is it the sector, the FA side?

Once decided what's the time frame, what's the expected gain, what price do you want to pay. and why?

(There was a chap on MMAG that wanted to buy when the SP was 35p but was waiting for a 25% fall. So I asked what made him think that would happen. No reason he said, but would only buy between 25p-30p. The stock is now 40p (and was 44p). To me that was so illogical as to be beyond comment.

Harl looks attractive now as buy there is on closer inspection a16.5p ish support, but I have no funds to use to take advantage. If it falls further than 15p is the bigger support in which case I might stump up some money from somewhere

I think I posted that I could see a AVCT drifting up to 175-185p prior to science day but that target is a while back now as we are close to recent all time highs (over the last 12 months) so its starting to get into no mans land for me to forecast the upside. Given the nature of its model it will be news driven anyway. So it will push it to overbought from time to time no doubt and I will sell and hopefully buy lower down and maybe try & cream a few extra percent in between the news releases.

Eve was very painful for you others I know, and I have had the same experience previously. All we can do is learn from it but at the same time try not to let it affect future decisions. (A bit like getting a divorce and then not trusting any body else thereafter, all these other people are not the partner that you split up with, so don't miss out on future happiness by the scars of that relationship. sort of thing).

Morning D, my experience of setting stops is back when I day traded indecis and the guys training me explained how the market worked and always recommended never to put in a formal stop as they (MM's) can just push the price to it, and automatically trigger it, take the money and move back up. For every sell there is a buyer. So for example if a Stock is selling at 60p and they have a buyer who wants to buy at 58p and someone has logged a stop at 58p.... well you can guess what happens. All anyone else sees is a dip to 58p and then back to 60p, thinking "I wonder what that was all about?"

Anyways, these City traders told me never to put a stop in the market. (It was a pretty instructive few days, they worked for Bank of America's trading desk and had some good examples to back up the theory.)

The biggest take away I got was patience and not to break the plan the individual has devised that works. Something I still struggle with to this day. (as my recent buy of HARL proved yet again. Ha!)

FA = Fundamental analysis (all company info, accounts, PE ratios etc ) in an effort to "value" the company to see if its out of sync with its market valuation (shares in issue x SP)
POV: short hand for point of view
Certainly from a TA POV I think ONC is a reasonable entry point right now. Just because there is (in this instance) a support at 58p does not mean it WILL fall to there to test it, Plus its close to the 61p support and when placing stops the MM's can see what we all can see so normally push it a little lower just to see if it will flush some trades out before the shares rise again.

It becomes a bit of cat and mouse game with the MM's as to where to place stops so you need to add (imo) a bit of wiggle room so you don't get whipsawed out of a stock.
(FWIW I never place a stop on a book so that it can be seen, I just have a figure that if hit, will trigger me to sell.)

New traders? Touk, its you that said ".. If we can break through resistance at 165p then we’ll have shaken out all the traders and be looking forward to some decent gains ..."

Some might sell at that point but many might not. ( i won't for instance) but I might increase and buy more.

Its just the broad assumptions made here based on what seems contradictory logic, that I tend to query.

Touk, if you think 165p is significant its because of TA in which case its likely to be traders that will buy when and if that level is broken.

I honestly dispair at this continuing misguided view that traders only ever sell. (You can't sell unless you have bought the stock (and yes I am ignoring shorts because that it a specialised small part of the overall daily buying and selling transactions.)

Its funny how you misquote me to make a point.

Its not Sells that force the price up but Sellers refusing to accomodate buyers who want to force the price down to get in at a lower price.

If Sellers refuse to sell at lower prices then the SP won't fall. If they ask for a higher pprice then the buyer has a decision to make.

Sellers try to force the price up, buyers try to force the price down. The deal done is ultimately in the hands of the sellers as they own the stock.

But now you change the word seller to sells which is (I think deliberate) but if its not then it shows you either did not read the post correctly or simply can't understand basic economics.

Hi CI,

I was previous on Harl yesterday getting in before end of close prices. (I really should no better! ha ha)

So its in a range with 18p being a bit of a support and if it goes then 15p would be the next support. needs to close above 22p to indicate further gains.

From an FA POV there is clearly a big seller presumably crystalising the gains from around 5p? but who knows what the reason is, (it might be something else, or a whole host of reasons), there is talk of a cash raise, so that might be depressing the price too.
My gut feel is that they need another decent sized contract win to show that they really have turned a corner to secure their future , at that stage it might give investors the confidence to pile in.

As for AGL, that's in no mans land right now. the bottom is clear at 23.90p and the rsi was 20 which is over sold so the rise was on the cards, so fa so good. but...has it stalled?

The high was 32.5p then it tried to break it, but stalled at 31.25p and then had a 3rd go and stalled at 30.5p.
So that suggests it will fall back further. However it is close to the top for a breakout so would not take much to break 32,5p.

Ultimately you can make an argument for either direction but given the conflicting signals I would wait until it closed above 32.5p And thats the thing. Its an odds game and the odds (to me) looking at the chart, are not strong enough to bet on either direction.

Anyway, just my 2p's worth... GL

Well Fisherman, you do your thing ands I will do mine.

The reason i think some of you are so anxious to judge me all the time is because you judge me by your own standards. You might be anxious or concerned when your beloved comapnies go down but i don't.

I don't care about Harl or any of the companies I buy and sell. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. Its just a trade. I don't care because I don't over commit. Caring about the company does not make the SP go up or down, so I don't waste my time trying to double guess, who has hired who and is that buy or is it a sell.... who cares, it makes no difference. (I really would have thought by now that that shoe might have dropped for all the dot-joiners here).

You all seem so gleeful and if it makes you happy then great but really I could care less.

The rise here today has left me a few thousand richer overall than when the day started. Tomorrows another day rich in opportunity. That's the benefit of a portfolio of stocks.

Maybe , maybe not. time will tell. I can sell any time I like.

No not at all stressed, thanks, I have lots of stocks to dip in and out of. I only just bought some AVCT at 143.96 last week expecting a rise so all good. (I do give my trades some time to work you know),

(Actually the TA for HARL did work fine, it was me getting over excited that caused me to top up a bit too early, but it looks a pretty solid bet over the medium term so I don't think paying 1 or 2p over the odds is going to hurt very much.)

Gord, just lighten up and accept that you are interested in the SP and don't try to look so superior as though making a profit is such a crass thing to dirty your hands with.

And anyway, how do you know its not annoying little traders that have been forced into buying at a higher price today and it is they that are responsible for the rise?

Oh wait... you don't. its just your silly bias being revealed...

SP rises because of good LTH's (although they may be first time buyers and therefore not Long term at all), against bad traders that only ever sell... (although to sell, they would have had to have bought in the first place..... so.....

well, good to see no one cares about the daily movements of the SP and how meaningless they are......

Hi Ci, its pretty much on a support.

After the sharp rise to 71p the "obvious" retrace was around 63p but that was a short term high from around a more general 61p support level.

I thought it would bounce off 63p but it now wants to bathe in the relaxing comfort around 61p support level. (If that goes then 58p would be the next support target.)

In the great scheme of things its pretty tight (61-63p).

I am pretty relaxed about it and am trying to release funds from elsewhere to add a little at these levels. I used most today to buy into HARL so its going to be a bit of a juggling act but it looks to be worth a punt (imo, dyor etc etc)

AI: also the RNS says "However, the Company expects to generate approximately £25 million in revenues from pre-fabrication works in 2023, and a similar sum in 2024. "

Did you account for that in your calcs?

Cheers

Because Ben, the clue was in "most"