Member Info for wyndrum

Tim, what, that I said "Sellers try to force the price up and buyers try to force the price down" and you think its the other way around,

wow...!!! I mean Wow!!!

I can only assume as you now carefully change the wording of what I actually said that you at last agree :0))

(Just for the record: Light hearted comment)

Maybe we agree for once?

I think the MTD "request" came out of left field for AVCT and as a result were not geared up to do it. No patients, no new doseage planned or anything, hence the delay. But on the other hand...who knows....

I think you are correct in your analysis Blubay, I think it was nailed on a delay until Q3 when DM left. (I can't imagine he would have left if a rig was properly secured for some (or any) time this year.)

So there might be a drift on the SP as its 6 months now to wait but in that time a rig will most likely be found and secured and that will buck up the SP, and that can happen anytime, so my feel is the SP, give or take, is at a low (which might even encourage more buying perversely as people get in now).

In any event we are back to the "news can drop any time" mode for a while.

At least we will see the new CEO today and maybe get an initial impression of her potential in the new role?

All in all I think anywhere between 5-6p looks about right for the SP. (imo dyor etc etc)

oh god... I was replying to RAH when he posted:
"Personal view on the TA is it’s good until it isn’t and if you’re wrong, just slightly, on an equity like AVCT you can cost yourself a small fortune quite quickly. Great for some. But not for me. Will Elliot be right and we head to 200+ next?Probably. But a Science Day (if they land the messaging) can quickly make Elliot quite redundant.

You just constantly look for trouble where there is none.

HL is saying 163.75 close

Its closed above its trading range today (albeit not by much) but hey... anyway next target 3p which is a 25% gain so not to be sniffed at.....

The thing about TA is on stocks that can move about quite a bit you have larger stops which increases the risk profile which in turn means you don't risk over-committing to the trade.

When done properly TA is actually a risk averse way of investing. The "problem" is its very hard not to get emotionally caught up in the stock itself and then the plan can go out of the window.

Put it this way, for those that disparage TA and cite Warren Buffett as an example, how many "investors" here are as good as WB? Does that mean value investing is wrong? or that you are simply not good enough?

Its the same with TA.

The majority are hopeless at it (TA), and don't have a plan let alone follow it when entering a stock.

TA can get knocked out of the park by a surprise RNS, but so can any system, incl Value/growth picks.

But I would point out that often the SP moves prior to a RNS coming out and gives a clue as to what is coming.

But in any event , trading a stock like this, does not mean you have to be all in or all out.

You might hold 10,000 shares and decide to sell 60% when you have 50% profit letting the rest run for only a potential 10% loss if the shares went to zero but still hold 40% of your original purchase.

Its much more mechanical than some here realise, I think.

I agree about ONC. I have sold out, the RNS said (for all the good stuff) that it would make no material difference to this years figures so probably time to get back in as and when.

Re Harl: the strong bounce away from the 15p support has convinced me enough to add further now.

(I have mentioned before stops can be a cat and mouse game and I get attentive once it falls below an obvious stop, and always build in a bit of wiggle room before selling.

I was ready to sell this morning if it looked like it was going to fall further so patience one the day (at least today).

It could well fall back again if the seller comes back out, but it looks like there underlying strength in and around the current SP (imo dyor etc)

RAh, its just a pile of assumptions.

AVCT do not have a track record of commercial sales let alone forecasting £1.5b

Without knowing the profit margin the average multiplier is meaningless, its another assumption.

As to the success its looks good but this part of the trial is just about safety, not efficacy so its unlikely imo that we will get much detail on that side of things so we are still years away unless a BO occurs. Hence the relatively low valuation.

The market is not as stupid as you think.

I have a pretty modest holding in this CI so strictly speaking I would exit if it closed below 15p. In reality I will probably offload some in that instance, but in any event its relatively small beer.

I think a close above 17.5p (right now) would indicate the trend might be reversing.

I like HE1 chart wise plus my own personal logic suggests that some that a low has been reached.

AVCT is getting close to it "science day" but hard to predict what will happen. Will it be a rehash of whats known or will it be new info?

Again it looks ok to me at this particular level to buy some.(160p)

Diversify and small amounts is not the worst phillosphy in this game. (imo) :0))

Happy to be surprised but often BB's over hype this type of thing and end up being disappointed.

The only (prior) new info i expect is details for the 5th DE. That however could be quite something.

Keith, I accept and understand your disinterest in the day-to-day SP movement but (fwiw) its been in a fairly tight trading range of 5.23p to 5.9p.

Currently it is above that now. if it closes above 5.9p then it would bae technical buy. I imaging some will be getting in now in any event. (just my opinion Dyor etc)

a bit early for harl as I tend to wait for close of play prices rather than intraday. but if 15p goes then it could be 10p but there are also potential stops at around 14p and 13p.

if 15p does hold today then it would be showing a lot of support at 15p.

As you say "Not taken any position yet.", are you waiting for a trigger to get in or not particularly?

GL

Thanks P{rof, I meant to add from the 6th feb post:
"Again assuming 161p holds today then that is the new current support, although with any luck it will never be tested"

So as we were back to that level when i posted earlier that was why I thought it would be a reasonable place for traders to buy at now.

When the sp was 173p on 6th feb I posted

"A double top formation completed on Fridays close at 161p and the "rule" is the the rise should be at least the size of the valley between the two peaks which was 19p (142p) so assuming it closes above 162p tonight then 180p (ish) would be a minimum target."

Then, on the 7th of feb at 185p I posted:

"well the DT formation has run its course and with 184p being hit it will be interesting to see if this makes a few sells come out."

This would seem to be a reasonable place for traders to buy in at.

I don't know either SMBP, its all a bit of a crap shoot. Over the years I lean more to the "trend is your friend" view with SP's as its impossible to know whats around the corner good or bad, plus you never have the inside skinny on the internals of any company. so however well researched anyone is they are probably flying pretty blind without maybe recognising it.

I'm sure MM goes on but how do you know when, and when its just market forces?

Normally news like this should put the SP in a bit of a dip esp as the replacement is not a big hitter. As it hasn't It suggests to me the SP may have found a bottom, but as I say its all guess work.

If the SP falls much from here I will sell and take a small loss. That to me is the key, don't over commit and suck up the small losses while dining out on the big gains... Or so the theory goes! :0))

GLA

Hi CI,

I bought more harl today at 15.29. Could have waited (in theory) for the 14.75p drop but often the market moves away quickly from a strong support and it can be hard to time it perfectly, so i tend to not try to be too clever and am happy to pay just above a support and get the stock I want in .

ONC is ok, had one support at 60.5p, and is now at the next one at 58p ish. all pretty tight in the grand scheme of spreads I think. If this support goes then I might think about reducing my holding as mid 50's to 51p would be next. But there does not seem any general or specific move going on, so as I say at this stage I am not looking to be bounced out.

GL

IMO, the SP has remained pretty resilient given the resignation of DM. It should be a big deal. DM has been the face of HE1 for years and his "disappointment" suggests to me it might have been a case of jumping before being pushed.

So to me, the fact that the SP has held up suggests that this is not a wholly negative outcome from the markets perspective. so I guess the BoD recognised that the market had lost confidence in DM which is why he had to go.

The basics have not changed. The licenses are there, the helium is still there, the company has Relatively plenty of money and it just has to get a rigged organised.

It should be a straight forward task to outsource even if the current BoD don't have the contacts or where with all to do it themselves.

Short of any unexpected bad news this could/should be a bottom now given the SP is based on a new, untried CEO, no rig in place and no date for a drilling program in place.

Just my opinion dyor etc etc.