Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
There is a £5 billion tender for diagnostics is a huge sum of money, which makes me think there will be many winners out of that. The fact that Abbotts IV antibody test got £120m for something I see as very limited, makes me believe the likes of NCYT, ODX and AVCT could all do very well out of it. I suspect that they all will get large tenders. Personally feel with all the info about that NCYT will get a whopper.
Ali, you da man. Its exactly what I think of AVCT - its the hopium which SH like our Stan loves to here. NCYT are very business like, people moan as its not giving them that uplifting feeling, but I've been around AIM many years to know that most AIM CEO's who promise the heavens deliver a big load of poop of your front door. AVCT, like I said back 4 months ago been promising the world, has great potential. 4 months - nothing, NCYT keep on delivering no pipe dreams, and I bet they were annoyed about having to release that mobile test news before time. AVCT keep tweeting hopium, the CEO is constantly ramping the potential, yet why did Cytivia - there much lauded company suddenly invest in Aptamer for the exact same thing that AVCT promise. They may well make it, and damn they will if there lateral flow hits it. And for that reason I can see the temptation, but right now they're mc is 70% more than NCYT's on basically just hopium. If they any shape fail that will fall so fast its scary. I will keep a very close eye on AVCT as it does have huge disruption potential, there i go saying that word again, but for me NCYT still has box seat.
Stan - The government will keep lab based pcr testing, its all set up, the lighthouse labs with new automated robotic systems is in place, so I'd still expect there will be large amounts given to this type of testing. The slice of the pie may diminish in terms of percentage as they look to newer types of test but the size of the pie just got much more substantial. Of course there will be a newer focus be on mobile /poc tests, such as fingerprick Antibody, mobile nasal/saliva pcr tests, and if ever successful lateral flow tests. The pie is large - the UK gov is willing to throw money at this to get on top of it. I'm here because NCYT were first, have constantly evolved and developed their tests, have built up a great relationship with the NHS/GOV and believe they'll get a substantial tender out of the UK. They also have the added bonus of distributors in over 130+ countries. The risk/reward for NCYT S/H's at this price is very very favourable indeed.
Stan - that's because NCYT already have it in the bag - they will still have lab testing, but the biggie will be the mobile testing that NCYT will get to. Which to answer Chrishar's post I expect within the next 2 weeks.
As I mentioned before Randox got £120m in previous tender - they won't get any this time around, abbott got £130m for a crappy lab based antibody test (I imagine ODX will do much better with theirs - as their test is much better), NCYT will get there's soon enough - likely to replace Randox's old tender for PCR lab tests, but also likely to get a substantial extra for the mobile testing too. And that's just the UK gov.
Airport testing is already happening in places like Pakistan (using NCYT kit), the main UK airports are about to introduce it. This will be private sector - paid for by passengers who don't want to quarantine - I expect NCYT will get a big slice here. And then we have the US - Roche have said they can't keep up with demand, we know NCYT have a large US OEM on board. Its all signposted that this is going to rerate - and the waiting for this is nearly over.
Watched it, cheers, interesting points actually. May have jumped the gun there with my previous statement so apologies. But unfortunately unless gov's have a change in policy you need to get that specificity as high as possible to convince them to adopt it. I'd imagine AVCT in the current climate need that accuracy in the low-mid 90's, but like you say if there is a change in approach of literally testing everyone everyday then this figure could come way down.
Sleepdave - did you realise what you just said. My word, 50-60%. What is the point, I might aswell book myself in the doc, they then toss a coin to tell me if I have covid or not. Wow. Dumfounded by that statement.
Infor25 re:QMUL - I believe they are already 21 days into the trial. And going yesterday's RNS - "The Company expects to launch its NPT system by the end of July 2020. " I suspect that they already know its good enough from the results thus far. I personally am expecting a very large tender to be realised next week or the week after. I expect a minimum of £120m (basing that on what abbot got for antibody work and what Randox got in the previous round), however wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised to see it double that.
I'm so relaxed here, let the SP play out with its daily ups and downs, what we now know is that GM keeps his cards close to his chest, I suspect he didn't want to release yesterdays RNS until the trial was complete next week but is hand was forced by that news report. Its blindingly obvious that NCYT will get a very large tender agreement with the NHS. For one Randox who got 120m last time around are out of the picture, NCYT have proven themselves and work closely with the Gov and NHS and are constantly evolving their products. This mobile test will be worth its wait in gold, but keep an eye out for saliva I suspect coming soon also. What it all means is don't worry about todays price, this is all but guaranteed to substantially re-rate in the coming weeks/months. Join the dots.
This is great news, game changing - load up before the RNS -
Mobile testing - tick
Under hour - tick
Simple nose swab - not the deep back of the throat nasal swab - tick
Care homes/airports / Anywhere - tick
Big tender coming our way - tick tick
Where's Stan? lol
Stan - I suggest you should worry more about AVCT getting market share in the LFD saliva market. Ask yourself why Cytivia only last week signed up with Aptamer group for their saliva based LFD process when they are already in bed with AVCT. Is it because they are having problems with getting the required sensitivity/specificity with AVCT, or just hedging their risk - if hedging why do they need to if AVCT is so great. It just seems unusual. As to saliva - The Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine / Liverpool Uni NHS had done a paper showing that saliva can be used with NCYT genesig assay and PCR test to great effect. Study already done - so what do you think NCYT have been doing, they are like a swan floating serenely on the surface with their legs going like crazy unseen beneath the waves. NCYT have a track record of being first to everything, do you think for one moment they haven't seen and been developing a saliva based mobile PCR test for the last few months, GM just doesn't shout from the roof tops but delivers. I fully expect something on this before the end of the month.
Guys/Gals - the optigene lamp test uses NCYT genesig RNA extraction as part of the process - they are specifically linked by that.
Please see further here.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.30.20142935v2
However as for saliva you again this can be tested using the genesig assays for increased specificity under lower lod values. This can be done with the standard PCR test equipment and has been documented here
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20149534v1
Unfortunately NCYT countered that argument in a later paper, and pointed out that FIND (the diagnostic part of the WHO) did a far larger study and concluded that NCYT had 100% sensitivity. NCYT has also launched 3 new tests since then, one which it claims is even higher in specificity, and also introduced the one stop solution - negating much of GDR's advantage. They also have a saliva and POC test coming out before end of July.
Maybe need to check out Aptamer and their saliva test just signed with Cytiiva a weeks ago on a LFD test. Or lighthouse labs, who are in bed with the government and their saliva test. Still think AVCT is in the hot seat, but the competition is all around if you look hard enough.
Yep that's an important point regarding the mobile test. They may well have developed whole new PCR instrument for mobile testing or an upgraded version of the Q16 or Q32. That won't come cheap, especially if fast tracked. Easy to spend money to keep up with the competition. All will become clear in the near future "Novacyt expects to provide an update on its investment in R&D to support continued growth, including a number of new products and innovations to be launched in the near future. "
I wouldn't worry - the 5b diagnostic tender submission deadline is 20th July. And that's just the UK - I suspect NCYT will be pushing their new products to get some share of this tender. Also with that date in mind, I would think that we'll get an update on mobile testing and possibly saliva before that date.
Looks like NCYT is doing saliva testing too
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.09.20149534v1.full.pdf