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46G
"While we still have the open offer open what will happen with the SP if we get news that MSC is signed"
As the OO is not for a significant amount I don't think it will have much effect on the SP reaction to the announcement of the tripartite agreement sign-off. Might slightly delay or partly subdue any rise short-term but I would expect a quick jump 100-200% followed by a steady rise in the weeks/months following sign-off.
It beggars belief the store JM puts in the Valkor/Utah story. Everything happening in Utah seems to take ages and Heavy Sweet Oil got the permits for their 4 pilot wells in Dec 2022, yet here we are 15 months later and he expects the Valkor money "imminently". Dream on Jason, I don't believe we'll see a bean from them this year.
Another concern for me is around 2 years ago when AM joined us, he told us his specific priority was to narrow down the focus and get a commercial contract over the line. Based on what we have been told today, we seem to have more plates than ever wobbling away on their respective canes. I appreciate it takes a lot of logistical planning to deal with the majors they are trying to sign up but for goodness sake, don't get side-tracked by the likes of Valkor until oil is actually flowing!
Get Morocco to a commercial deal, while developing the MSC project. The BioMSAR Zero can go on the back burner for me too until such times as we have revenues, (not shareholder cash) to throw at new ventures/developments.
I'm not overly concerned about future fund raising as the cash runway post this raise should see us well into 2025, when hopefully the SP will be much healthier.
The cash runway could be reduced however should significant progress be made on projects, requiring development capex. Again, should this be the case I would hope future raises are at much better SP rates and less dilution.
What we definitely need to avoid is another year of meandering through delay after delay with the corporate expenses burning the cash and being no nearer commercial success by 2024 AGM. That I think really would mean the end!!
"So whats the verdict, Buy, sell or hold on the basis of that call."
On the basis of the call, for me it's a hold, although I am buying the OO. Regardless of the call, I would not sell @ 1.25p but will hang fire on future purchases until more positive news is forthcoming, even if it means paying a bit more!
To be honest, the whole presentation looked like a pitch to new investors, rather than an existing investor update, as nothing has basically happened in the last 3 months, well except for 3 more salary payments to our hard-working team.
Looks like both AM and JM were in home offices too, so at least they might be reducing office heating costs at QED HQ
"Did they mention the Valkor drilling permits and if so i am guessing they are imminent ?"
Exactly so! and guess what? If they do get some oil out of the ground, they are going to send it to us for testing, whooopeee!
In addition to my open offer take up, I have spare cash in both my SIPP and ISA which I hoped to use to take additional shares in the OO or buy on open market. After today's IMC I'm hanging fire meantime as I heard nothing to suggest there will be progress on the SP, other than JM's hopes to conclude the tri-partite agreement in Q1. However, he seemed pretty sure it would be done last December, so he obviously remains clueless on timescales.
They give us the same "clients are very keen to progress at pace" rhetoric but actions, (including lawyer activity) would suggest otherwise. It would appear we are in the "diddy pile" on the MSC/Cargill lawyers desks continually being overlooked as they concentrate on much bigger contracts.
Well that was another hefty dose of jam tomorrow. Very disappointed with the Moroccan project as was under the impression client would review test results Q1 and negotiations for commercial supply in Q2 with a view to commencing supply Q3/H2. Now it would appear there will be no commercial revenues in 2024.
IMO the funding has been an issue holding up projects and the SP.
How can we negotiate an agreement to supply OCP when we don't yet have anyone signed up to produce the fuels. I believe the MSC trial and Moroccan supply are inter-linked, even if they end up being from two different suppliers.
Sincerely hope once the cash position is improved, things will progress more tangibly in Q2 and at the very least, a contract to supply Moroccan client will be agreed. The agreements required for the supply of the MSC trial are obviously more complex as they probably will include future supply agreements beyond the trial stage, (if successful). It may take a year or two to get there but hopefully we will see the SP hit record levels in the not too distant future....
I certainly won't miss the IMC as it's a crucial time for the company and depending on what is said the SP could do anything. I did not apply for additional offer shares as I want to see and hear what is said. I did sell a small proportion of my holding recently expecting this raise so I have available cash should I deem it worthwhile adding more.
Who knows what will happen???
DoN,
Lionel
"Valkor, on the basis it doesn't happen at all or the timings a bit out from what you displayed on there, I guess you run out of cash Q1 next year"
Jason
"I think that's a reasonable assumption yeah"
He then goes on to talk about discretionary project spend etc.
With nearly £2m in cash reserves, why did he not correct Lionel and at the same time alleviate a lot of investors concerns by saying something along the lines of;
Based on current cash position and expenditure, we estimate the cash runway to last to Q3 2024.
And if you read my post you would realise I welcomed their investment and was merely questioning the timing in line with the ambiguity given on cash runway.
AM also said if we tell the markets we're raising funds, they immediately mark down the SP, which is exactly what has happened recently. Why did they not intimate the need to raise capital in H1 when the SP was nearer 3p?
Going by the £1.7m end Dec cash position, at the time of the AGM, this must have been close to £2m, yet when Lionel asked if the Valkor money fails to materialise in time, we will run out of money in Q1 2024, Jason Miles basically agreed.
Now while I'm aware the BoD will have info they are unable to disclose at given times, as I see it, the JM agreement with Lionel's point was disingenuous to say the least.
Also, I have consistently voiced my frustration at the lack of BoD, (especially JM) investment in the company. We are now told he, among others are buying in at the 1.25p current raise price which I welcome. However, when coupled with the serious ambiguity on cash runway, intimated at the AGM, it does raise the question has the SP been deliberately subdued to allow BoD members to buy in more cheaply than they might??
On the positive side, we know the BoD are much closer to the action and if JM et al, have raked down the side of the sofa to find some cash to throw in, good news and SP uplift could be just around the corner.
All pure speculation of course!!
According to the Edison piece, cash reserves at end 2023 were £1.7m. Don't know where this info came from and it certainly was not the picture painted at the AGM??
If true, that should have given a cash runway to around end July 2024, which would explain the apparent BoD relaxed position re funding early 2024.
Can anyone else remember being told of the £1.7m end Dec 2023? or has Edison plucked this figure out of thin air, (doubtful).
"I support PR's view and further believe it is a quite likely scenario and an elegant solution that benefits all parties including shareholders"
It makes complete sense and the £4.5m each could probably be taken from the office petty cash of these giants. However, where it seems unlikely to me is the last part, i.e. benefits shareholders. I am now really beginning to fear we are being squeezed. Big business is big business and companies don't get big, unless they have a ruthless streak. I'm sure all our counterparties would not do anything illegal but acting immorally? I'm not so sure.
Sincerely hope I'm wrong and such a move £9-10m investment in QED woudl I'm sure be transformational. Moreso than any 3-way agreement or even a commercial contract from Morocco. We can but dream...
"Looks like someone has given up waiting. Each to his own."
Looks like that someone is Matthew Jones. Bad news if he is starting to sell out, this would anchor the price for some time. Hopefully just a minor adjustment to his holding.
Let's not forget since our intrepid leader smirkingly, slithered off the hook at the AGM with his "December" oxcrement, he has pocketed a cool £125k or thereabouts in salary payments.
Not a bad gig if you can get it.....