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It strikes me that the SP is by and large holding steady.
I think that an RNS on the Palermo Aike well will not be forthcoming until International flights resume (to bring in personnel & specialised equipment) to complete the testing of the well. I think that the official date for flight resumption is 1st September, but as we all know, dates for re-opening in the times of this Covid-19 virus are fluid!!
So maybe, mid to late September as a minimum for the PA RNS. My opinion.
News on the workovers, may be much sooner. I am certain that Martin Hull would be delighted to release positive news, I support what has been said here many times to better under promise and over deliver!! I can also see the value of releasing news in one RNS that might move the market, than dribbles that impress no one!!
Maybe some investors see this time as one to sell some shares, with the possibility of the SP drifting lowers whilst we all patiently wait, and to time a buyback just before there is say a positive news RNS, with respect to the PA well testing. An opportunity certainly, but one laden with risk if mistimed.
It is said that it is difficult (last week) to buy shares, how likely do we think the acquisition might be when a PA RNS is just around the corner??
Echo was a problematic share after the antics of Ms MacAulay, I think that most would agree that given the hand Martin picked up; he has restored some confidence to investors and we now have a credible pathway forward, even in the times of a Global Pandemic!!
So for July, August and September I am continuing to be patient and enjoy the Cricket and F1GP's, primarily because there is nothing else for it.
For those who bought in around 0.3P, I congratulate you as you are sitting on a tidy profit already with the prospect of much, much more with the possibility of a stream of positive RNS's later on.
And PLEASE no Walter Mitty(esque) posts of how you bought millions for a song, for those who have been here for a while, we have seen those fantasists come and go -seeking only their pathetic 15 minutes in the sun!! lol
You may agree, you may disagree but that is my view, this fine Monday lunchtime.
WT
Me too!
Tried for a 500,000 share top-up, at H-L and no shares available.
Are the MM's accumulating shares for a big order?
Or do they have a sniff (I don't ramp, just conjecture!! lol) of something in the wind, and are loathe to sell at this price?
But the SP is not moving, so I remain in the dark.
WT
I like others bought into Ms MacAuley's rampastic drivel!! Dr Bessa was NO better.
Lesson learned.
Some may have sold up, others hung on with what they have and there are those like me who believe Martin seeks to radically improve the situation at Echo. I have spoken to him a number of times and I am convinced. Along the way, I have bought a shedful of shares over the last 4 months to bring my breakeven within easy touching distance.
trellis35, have you EVER taken the time to speak to Martin Hull, to take on board quite what he wants to do?
Some on here have had fanciful notions about Bolivia, some spouting drivel about the Eastern Tapi Aike well - they have never worked in an oilfield or done the most basic physics or chemistry or geology courses,from what they say it is patently obvious. Others ramp away, with predictions based on morning mist, and yet some buy into their idiocy forgetting the last failed one or the one before that!??!
But you mystify me; you keep on coming back, time after time with the same message.
We have heard you, we all know what you think!!
Maybe, this fine Sunday you might have quaffed more Rioja than is good for you.
I do not bother until 9.00 p.m. and avoid oaken Spanish wines, as have never enjoyed chewing a plank.
Ce Soir, Domaine bottled Crozes 2015 by Les Alexandrins with a decent steak.
Might I suggest that before revisiting this board, you examine your motivation.
Western Tapi Aike has a good chance of recovering the wanton damage, Fiona did here.
Our Palermo Aike well, might well provide some much required income.
As will the ongoing workover well program.
We have reasonable prices for our oil and gas locked in.
You Sir, are going round in circles and I fear for you!!
Best go for a lie down!!
WT
My opinion.
1. Workovers
Each new bbl of oil flowrate produced, is worth around £8.5K gross p.a. to Echo.
After a w/over, the initial flowrate can be misleading. After a month of production, you get a reasonable indication of what the new rate is. As time goes on, this will drop off with the perforations getting clogged up again. On a 4 well program, and and an optimistic average increase of 5bbls/day per well, the gross to Echo before tax might be in the region of £170k/p.a.
2. Oil and Gas sales numbers - are we now making a profit? The next Production RNS should answer that question.
3. Palermo Aike.
There are a number of possible scenarios here. Echo have indicated that the historic seismic was inaccurate. They must have found something, given they are awaiting specialised equipment from outwith the region. All "normal" kit would be available locally, CGC no doubt would be happy to help. Maybe Echo are imposing a news lockdown on this well, if that was the case - you really have to wonder!!
4. Being realistic, Bolivia and the Eastern Tapi Aike well, should be considered as write off's. No point in spending a penny more, on these failures.
5. News on the Tapi Aike Western Cube well program. 3 wells to be drilled. Mobilisation date and well location to be advised.
That is where I see Echo now. News might come in a different order, but the topics should be the same.
WT
And here we go again with a"slightly" bigger top up, than yesterday!!
Sometimes you have just GOT to trust your instincts!
WT
You either believe the messaging, or you do not!
Martin is NO Fiona - ergo a decent top-up today.
WT
No surprises with this failure in Bolivia.
Ms MacAulay deserves the "brickbats" but we should not forget Dr Bessa, the "Doctor of Rocks" who aided and abetted her!!
He has, as yet NOT produced an economic discovery.
The location of the Palermo Aike well was included in the acquisition, so should not count.
And I expect CGC will have the major say in the Tapi Aike well program well locations.
Geologically speaking, our strike rate so far has not been stellar!!
WT
A minor top up from me.
It might be seen as rude or even impolite, not to have done so! lol
Unless we are all being taken for a MacAulay(esque) ride on this Palermo Aike Well , I think that at long last Echo have , as the major stakeholder; actually found a hydrocarbon accumulation worthy of monetisation.
And, believe me - that is not ramping, like some on this board.
It is down to continual positivity from Echo, knowing that another failure after unremitting encouragement might see many long term holders running for the hills; clutching what little cash they have left from their original investment; with a very bitter taste in their mouths.
Now, very well into 7 figures, so if and when Echo issues RNS's of note, my investment will actually be worth more than pennies!!
WT
To my mind, there is absolutely nothing from what Echo have released regarding Campo Limite to indicate that it was not highly promising. For anyone to disagree, let them quote negative comments from Echo.
Why would Echo say that they are awaiting specialised equipment from abroad to finish the testing program?
De-rampers have been the bane of this board as have the tub thumping, unrealistic investors who grab onto the smallest fact and build it up to Everest(ine) proportions.
Currently, I look at this board maybe once or twice a week, I rarely see comment from those with oilfield, or operational experience; and who can blame them?
How many would have been part of a well workover program let alone be aware of probable flowrate, post the intervention??!!
From here on in, listen to Martin and be patient.
Campo Limite and Tapi Aike, that's the ball game!!
WT
Were these P10, P50 and P90 in the public domain, already??
WT
When an accountant says "excited" or "very excited" and they are NOT the likes of Ms Macauley, you really have to take them at their word!! Martin is infamous for not going OTT!
WT
Given where we were a week ago, we have had a good 7 days, compared to where we might have been.
Speaking realistically, better to forget about Bolivia and the Eastern Tapi Aike well.
Potential in the Palermo Aike well, but according to the website that is unlikely to be cash generative for a year or so.
Still, if it delivers could add value to Echo.
Our focus should be on Western Tapi Aike.
I think that is why many of us got involved in Echo, not the hairbrained schemes of Ms MacAulay or Dr. Bessa!!!
And if you give it some thought, if there REALLY was little potential in Western Tapi Aike, do you think that we would have got these financial instruments in place without excellent prospects in the West.
We have not been privy to the recently shot, up to date 3D from the Western Cube.
But I do imagine that those who have, even in a general report scenario, might well have been enthused by what they saw.
Echo and CGC have had more than enough time to devise and plan the Western Tapi Aike drilling campaign.
It should run like a Swiss Watch, not the Sekonda we got last go around.
So let's just wait for the lambing season to finish, and the drilling (I imagine) may well commence in December.
Patience, that is all that is required.
Have a good weekend.
WT
Not quite!!
WT
nyforever
With regard to partridge, I think that you might have meant "drivel!!??" lol
WT
I did notice that the Argentinean Government has cancelled ALL ingoing or outgoing flights, both international & internal until 1st September.
So we cannot expect much progress on operations, given this prohibition!!
So hunker down, and hope that the gas operations are not interrupted by this government decree.
Friday is "D Day" for us, nothing else matters!
WT
I saw Brent Crude collapse to $7/bbl in 1987, the cutbacks that ensued made North Sea Oil & Gas platforms resemble the "Marie Celeste," so draconian were they. Todays WTI of $13.15 is the modern equivalent. Mr Trump, the CEO of Exxon etc will be apoplectic with elections just over the horizon. Crude may be worth less than water today!!
It will come back, it must otherwise there will be a wholesale collapse of the economies of OPEC nations. Mr Putin will feel his sphincter tightening as the Coronavirus starts to ravage Mother Russia, and it's citizens begin to lose confidence in him.
These are strange times, and at Echo we must wait out what is in front of us!!
WT
I imagine that Echo will be battening down the hatches for the short to medium term.
The imperative will be a successful outcome from the meeting on May 1st.
A prudent approach to cost-cutting is key, reducing expenditure where possible whilst remaining focused on being ready and able to resume production as and when the oil price allows. Brent fell from $65 to $28 over a 3 month period. For many producers, the current price is uneconomic; so no matter who or where they are -the price must go up. In the USA, with so many jobs in the oil/supporting sectors under threat, Mr Trump cannot afford to see so many well paying jobs consigned to the latrine. Even in a recession, there will be a push for stability; especially with only 7 months to the next election!!
On the exploration front, with Palermo Aike operations are suspended it is good to hear that the Eagle rig has been redeployed in order to bring other assets on stream. None of these piecemeal operations are about big numbers, but cumulatively they will increase our income; and in these troubled times that is really important. And we have the Winter gas sales income to look forward to.
With Eastern Tapi Aike not being successful, it will be off to the West later this year. I do not know about you, but it was that prospect that brought me to Echo. They have all of the enhanced 3D seismic, and they have had plenty of time to plan the campaign. The well locations, the permitary from the regional authorities, what drilling rig that will be employed, the well design, preparations for drilling into over pressured reservoirs and the respective procedures - yes, the entire 9 yards. This first well, should be the one that might really deliver; not point drilling anything less than the best prospect FIRST.
The pressure will be on, this is high risk, high reward Exploration, this is why we are here!!
It was NOT those first 4 failed wells that chewed up our cash!!
But for a while, we will just tick over, until the autumn.
So for the time being, I'm just going to enjoy some great wine and plenty of good food.
And buy some more wine, that in time will make a great return!!
And look out for those ignorant, duvet surfing morons who know nothing, post everywhere - that get off on their cretinous diatribes. They will be back soon, disrupting; because they have nothing else to do because they are unemployable!! LOL
Take care, keep safe and I hope that you and your families are well and stay that way.
WT
There will always be a very sad cadre of posters, sat on their bed, in their PJ's who have no job, investments or even shares in Echo. All they want is to be a voice, mostly shouty and very much ill informed. These boards are their sole window on the world.We know who they are, because we can look back on their posting history, to see if they "have form?"
So they are fooling no one, except perhaps themselves.
And engaging with them is what they wish for, need or even require.
So when they pop up, they are best ignored - engaging with them gives them the oxygen that they crave.
This board does not need cheerleaders, only realists.
We are, where we are; and as long as Martin Hull remains at the helm, we should be ok.
Remember, it was Ms MacAulay and Dr Bessa who took us down the road of 4 failed wells.
It was almost certainly CGC who chose the well location in Eastern Tapi Aike, probably with a passing consultation with us, their 19% partners. And it will be the same when we get to Western Tapi Aike.
And from what I remember, the Palermo Aike well location came with the purchase!
So all we can do is to wait the virus out.
The upside is that any drilling crews will be operating in the middle of nowhere.
So, if they go in there healthy, there should be no way that they could get infected.
All we can do is to produce a little oil and sell the gas into an Argentinean winter, take the income and stay afloat.
The upside, if there is one is that the oil reservoirs that we have been producing from will have an opportunity to stabilise whilst being closed in, so that when we open the chokes again, we may see enhanced rates of production for a while.
And for all we know, there may be some M & A opportunities out there, ripe for the picking?
WT
I am giving Martin Hull my full support, given this is the sort of area that he has great experience and expertise in.
The naysayers, the intellectually challenged, those who hold no shares or ever have can go and take a flying f..... !!
Hold and see this through.
Sell up and shut up.
A binary choice, that is an individual one.
And no amount of long-winded, never ending discussion ad nauseum here will be the substitute for pressing your SELL button. Your decision, your responsibility.
My view is that Dr Bessa, that previously lauded "Super Duper Geologist" has taken us to this point.
Unless, the Palermo Aike well is a resounding success, he deserves a gigantic boot up his backside with our eternal gratitude in the form of his very own and hugely deserved P45!!
0 for 6 is no track record for a geologist to be proud of, but there again; Palermo Aike just might deliver something worth having!??!
I suspect not too long to wait?
WT