RE: re over and out21 Aug 2022 18:28
Hi LGO
My view is the central banks around the world have printed far too much money over the last 10 years which ultimately causes inflation, which is where we are now
Money excess breeds inflation, goods & services costs rise therefore employees demand more pay which pushes up prices of goods & services therefore the cycle continues
We are at this stage in the UK now, every time you turn on the news someone is going on strike for more pay, this will happen in the US
This cycle has been seen many times before & it always ends the same way, by raising interest rates & plunging the economy into recession, demand for goods & services declines because people cannot afford them so company’s profits reduce leading to redundancies, it is the same everywhere
The USA has always benefited from cheap energy, I think that is going to change this winter, like it has in the UK & Europe
Sleepy Joe Biden the US president has released the majority of the strategic petroleum reserve, which should be reserved for natural disasters etc to artificially depress the price of crude oil & to allow fat stupid Americans to drive around in their 2 tonne SUVs without costing too much, what happens to the price of crude when a hurricane knocks out the oil rigs in the Gulf over the winter now the reserve is empty?
Europe is going to have the mother of all battles this winter because of the Russian energy crisis, they will be buying any energy they can from wherever they can, including US LPG. At any price just to keep the heat on, boosting the price of energy worldwide, US nat gas prices are now at historical highs.
These two factors alone I think will influence external investors to the USA to look elsewhere, when this occurs the USA dollar will decline, because the world’s commodities are priced in USA dollars this will cause a massive spike in commodities, spiking inflation to new highs, that is when the market will collapse
These are my reasons for shorting the markets, i always short or go long the indexes instead of individual stocks.
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