The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Newtofo: A US 'stink bid' of .10 or even .09 next week might not be a bad idea. Without news Falcon is likely to languish during this holiday season. Looking at end of day trading, someone decided to dump stock the last minute of the day - IMO nothing to be remotely concerned about - very light volume - probably $20K worth. I understand everyone's frustration over the dead quite (non) news coming out of Falcon but in reality, I don't know what one promotes at this point. I know I sound like a broken record but being a non-operating JV owner doesn't allow for much to be said before news in released by Tamboran on the SS1H well. As many of you know, our CEO doesn't believe in promoting Falcon when there is no news to back it up; otherwise, all you do is disappoint any new investors who buy higher only to watch the stock price drop - ie Tamboran earlier this year. I think we are in for a bit more wait so bring out a new full bag of patience to get us into the New Year.
Someday my friends - Someday!
Tamboran's PR Campaign is starting up - The US market will sniff out JV partner's 22.5% low bearing ORRI in the Beetaloo. Can't be anything but good for Falcon. Look for a US listing shortly after the first of the year. Grab your popcorn.
Tamboran Resources
We’ve been, we’ve seen and we’re very keen!
Tamboran heads into 2024 with a number of exciting developments on the
horizon. Production testing on Shenandoah South 1H (SS-1H) is due early
in the new year and we expect to see positive results given the early data
from logging indicated high porosity and gas saturation relative to offset
wells and DFIT analysis demonstrated pore pressure gradients of at least
0.54 psi/ft (in-line with the most productive regions of the Marcellus Shale
in the US). A successful flow test at SS-1H will allow Tamboran to sanction
a 40 MMcf/d pilot project in the region, supporting the local NT gas grid.
Our valuation for Tamboran currently sits at A$2.47/share, a substantial
premium (~20x) to the current share price of $0.13/sh. While moribund equity
markets can partially explain the performance of many small cap companies,
there is no doubt that Australian investors are paying no attention to the looming
gas shortages that Australia faces and the efforts being made by companies like
Tamboran to develop Beetaloo gas into a major project.
.....................Continued on Tamboran's news release.
Tamboran released an announcement today that the "Scheme" to list Tamboran on the US stock market is moving forward. We don't know the timetable for the actual US listing, but that listing looks to be approved withen the next a few weeks. This listing is not only positive for Tamboran but will also bring beneficial attention to Falcon/Beetaloo.
https://investi.com.au/api/announcements/tbn/e9cc7bb3-910.pdf
RichGreenwood: We don't need to rush that 'roll-up' process. Falcon's plan is to sale in the near future when we can get a fair price for Falcon. Getting a fair price vs. going to Tambo with a hat in hand request to buy Falcon would be a huge difference in what we would receive per share - much more than the current G&A expense. I, for one, would not want to be under the leadership of Riddle. As you likely know, Tamboran is looking to become listed on the NASDAQ in the US to gain access to larger capital markets that understand shale drilling. Being listed allows them as stated in their General Meeting release "the ability of simplifying Tamboran Group's corporate structure for potential future merger, sale or acquisition transactions" If Tamboran is in fact Falcon's suitor, then I hope Sheffield takes a larger lead in Tamboran. Under Sheffield's leadership I would personally not be opposed to a Tamboran takeover.
IMO, Falcon will soon be in play. I also suspect Sheffield/DWE will be an active suitor when that time comes - What does that look like? Could be that Sheffield takes more control of Tamboran and then Tamboran makes an offer to buy Falcon. The next year or so will be interesting.
Under these times
Lockview: Hardrock put a pin in it when he said the 'pressure gradient' DFIT news was neutral as this was something we already expected. This was a 'Riddle' release keeping Tamboran's shareholders apprised and holding interest in TAM's stock. Next up we are anticipating the initial flow rate numbers on the SS-1H well which I suspect Mr. Riddle will be announcing around the first part of December. This initial number is not as significant as the 30 day and 90 day flowrates but does give an indication of the well's potential. Many are looking for an increased flowrate from the SS-1H well with its 300-meter-thick shale along and its deeper Velkerri B formation. This higher potential along with its proximity to a pipeline is why Tamboran is hinting at this Shanandoah area being home to its upcoming planned pilot program. Hope this helps.
Hardrock_F:Thanks for the reply. Answers my question on re-entering the 2H and 3H well - I thought casing size could possibly be an issue.
I didn’t think the purpose of the 3H well was ever intended to produce commercial quantities of gas - not with drilling only 1000 meter laterals. If the 3H produces 5 MMcf/d as I would hope, then it serves its purpose. One of these days Tamboran needs to step up to 3000 meter wells to truly produce commercial quantities of gas.
Understand your comments on different opinions and finger pointing. I wish I could tell you who told me what and the results of that information being passed along the proper channels - changes took place shortly thereafter. I’ll leave it at that.
I am of the opinion that the pilot program will be moved down to the SS1H if this well meets expectations. It’s hard to argue with 300 feet of Velkerri shale and a pipeline in the vicinity.
Thanks again for offering your opinion to this board!
Otd2000: I don't want to comment on a public board any more specifics than I have already stated. I was at a meeting on a different shale project. I had brought a sizable investor to the table and this company was putting on a detailed presentation. At a break, I just kiddingly asked one of the guys, which I knew was familiar with Tamboran/Beetaloo, how 'he' managed to screw up the 2H frack and what in fact might have caused a 'skin' issue. He and another guy sitting next to me unloaded both barrels - they gave me an earful of exactly what happened and it damn sure wasn't a skin issue. I would love to tell the whole story in detail, but I don't want to jeopardize any one's job - let's just say it's a small small world and for me to end up sitting next to a guy who knew exactly what went wrong was quite a coincidence!
These guys indicated that the 2H frack was a terrible job and the well was basically lost. What went wrong in their opinion could not be economically fixed. So far July's date of how to fix the well has come and gone - just crickets from Tamboran - I suspect they want it to just fade away. I think Philip now knows/suspects the real issue as does DWE - a result of Tamboran operator error - in practicality nothing much for JV partners to do about that other than Sheffield putting on a couple of more Tamboran directors and also taking oversight of these next frack jobs!
IMO, once the 3H well goes online, and money becomes available, we could see a new horizontal leg for the 2H well. I'm not an engineer and don't know casing design or the economics but in my simple mind might that also be done for the 1H? - that's a question for Hard Rock.
Longknife: Tamboran/Sheffield will start the frack on SS1H when everything is in place and not before. Typically, the fracking equipment is not moved on location until the well is cased/cemented and the rig released. Is Condor the delay - don't know. I don't consider 1 month to be a 'huge' delay - you seem to think it is. It gets back to my response - it depends on your definition of huge!
Is Tamboran a first-class operation? I have been the one saying they screwed up the 2H frack which was clearly an operational error on Tamboran's behalf trying to save a few dollars. I think Riddle is a big promoter/talker but a poor financial manager which, IMO, is why the 3H frack is being help up - not for rain but rather lack of funding. Tamboran has spent a quarter of a billion dollars in the Beetaloo with not much to show for it. Hopefully that trend changes soon.
Restating, the operator of this SS1H well is officially Tamboran but the completion of this well is being overseen/directed by Sheffield. DWE (Bryan Sheffield's company) is on top of the shale game. Sheffield's group is overseeing the completion of the SS1H well and though there is still a learning curve in fracking the Beetaloo, the frack on this well will follow the best practices in the industry. You 'secondhand' operator statement as it refers to the fracking of this well is off base IMO.
Hardrock: 71 is what I thought - I googled just to verify before that post and it came up 67 which surprised me. Now when I enter the same search on google his age comes up 71 - guess you can't always trust the internet :^)
As to the Exxon stock - I was referencing our local Midland newspaper which I assumed would be reliable since that is Pioneer's home office - Once again, maybe one can't always trust what they read. Either way, $129 million or $150 million - what's a few million one way or the other.
Sandydune: You are making a couple of assumptions as to the benefit of the Pioneer - Exxon deal. I don't know how much Pioneer stock Bryan Sheffield might have - one would think a good amount which could provide more liquidity for Bryan's interest in the Beetaloo. It has been reported that Scott Sheffield will come away with $150 million from the sale. Is dad even interested in the Beetaloo? The only thing I have seen is that he was a director of Santos at one time, so the Beetaloo is on his radar and of course he has tons of shale experience.
Might Scott join Bryan in the Beetaloo? - Scott is 67 years old so he's certainly not over the hill. I don't know the family dynamics, so we will have to see what develops, IMO, there are too many unknows for the Pioneer/Exxon deal to create much immediate interest in the Beetaloo. We Falconeers certainly try to make anticipate this connection but the general market not so much so. I agree with you that it would certainly put the Beetaloo on the map if dad took an interest.
Longknife: I guess that depends on your definition of 'huge'. The SS1H well was originally to be fracked sometime in October - In the current release it looks to be scheduled in November.
In these early days of the Beetaloo, without the supply/support infrastructure, it takes time to assemble all the equipment/material. The SS1H well, is a 'huge' number of miles away from the local yard/supply point. A 30-day delay is not a big deal.
In a deal that would be transformational for the US energy sector, and spark another shale revolution, the WSJ writes that US supermajor, the largest US energy E&P and formerly the world's largest company by market cap, Exxon - the company that according to the Big Guy made more money than God in 2021, is closing in on a deal to shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources, a blockbuster takeover that could be worth roughly $60 billion and reshape the U.S. oil industry.
The deal, which the WSJ first leaked back in April and has described as "seismic" (metaphorically but also literally, ha ha) could be sealed in the coming days, though it is still possible there won’t be one, sources told the Journal.
Sinceday1: Just my opinion, but I think Riddle will release the initial 30 day flow results - especially if they are as good as currently predicted. Tamboran shareholders are rumbling about the current stock price and Riddle needs some good news to quell this group. I predicted the same for the Amungee 2H well as it was looking like a strong well with good gas shows during drilling - little did I know Riddle could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I suspect that will not happen again.
Derrik: As newtofo stated, it sounds like Tamboran is out of money and hoping for good results on the SS1H; which as I understand it, all data to date looks like this well is going to be bigger than anything we have seen in the Beetaloo). If Tamboran can back the SS1H well with a solid 3H well, they can complete an additional raise with much less dilution. I think this is the real reason for the delay - not the rain with access to the all-weather Carpentaria Hwy a rocks throw away.
Can they alter the frack process they used on the 2H well - Yes by utilizing Bryan Sheffield's (DWE) experts to oversee and complete the process - Tamboran doesn't have a choice on this oversight. The 2H frack was an outright operator error - forget Riddle's 'skin' excuse.
Gonoles: I would assume one would know that, but I was replying to your final though to BtoB - I took that to mean if it wasn't in print it was likely made up. I apologize if I misunderstood your closing reply.
I can assure you that neither Falcon nor DWE will be publicly accusing Riddle of blowing smoke up their butt. Nor will they be publicly accusing Tamboran of operator error unless stated first by Tamboran. Below the surface is a different story and you can see the results of that in the focused oversight on the SS1H well. Tamboran is the operator and it's their show to run, the partners best keep things under the sheets. The recent Tamboran report will stand uncontested as written.
Your post didn't cause me to post anything new on this board - I have been saying since the get go on the 2H screwed-up frack job wasn't a skin issue but rather operator error. I posted that a week or two after the fact. I still stand by that post and I know others in the oil community that agree with this also. My sources say the well is 'lost' - can Tamboran spend millions of dollars and increase mmcf/d - possibly but the economics are not there.
btob: we are on the same page - why is bryan sheffield insisting on more tamboran directors that have his ear and why has bs brought in more geologists to monitor the ss1h well? hmmm - must be some type of issue he is trying to oversee and prevent from re-occurring on the ss1h well - the talk on the street says tamboran royally screwed up the amungee 2h frack job and falcon/dwe know this to be the case. it was outright operator error and now tamboran is trying to blow smoke up the analyst **** still calling it a mere 'skin' issue caused by bacteria - wtf! tamboran can spend 6-7 million (22.5% our money) they/we don't have trying to fix the well, but this is only going to gain them possibly an addition 1 mmcf/d if at that. better to lay this well aside and come back to it when dollars are available, and the pipeline are in place for the gas. not an engineer but possibly the 2h lateral should be redrilled/fracked if the 3h well comes in as anticipated.
what gonoles seems not to understand is that not only are there open sources but also 'private' sources. if something is not in the public domain it is not necessarily a 'made-up fact'. many people know things which cannot be made public - it would cost them their job. i know not disclosing sources is frustrating to some on this board but that's how it has to be. those people can choose to put credence in a fact or not - doesn't really matter to me.
Hardrock: Ha! - Appreciate 'screw-it' I find myself in that mode from time to time - especially if trying to type on an iPad or smartphone. Anyway, I appreciate the detailed comment though I can't say I fully understand it.
If you don't mind I have one more question that I have always wondered on the 1H well. During the fracking/pressuring up across the fault line, which was likely made unstable by the drilling/fracking, I assume a shift occurred pinching off the casing? If that was the case, did Origin not have adequate seismic to define that fault or was it just a small area that was not defined well on the seismic? I guess my real question- does Tamboran now have the quality seismic to avoid this situation going forward or was this just a small unavoidable characteristic of this shale bed - something we may just have to deal with?
Hardrock: I likely misunderstood a discussion awhile back as I understood Falcon had either two or three independent engineering studies on the 1H well's normalization rate. I had the impression they used a packer(?) or such to seal off the first 7 stages and then took measurements on the remaining stages. I was given the impression that all the 2 or 3 engineering studies agreed and that 5.2 - 5.8 mmcf/d was a pretty clear normalized rate which was one of the main reasons they are going back to the same pad for the 3H well even though the 2H was a flop - to prove up for certain that area of the Amungee. I am sure you thoroughly understand these things and therefore appreciate your comments and will take them to heart.
The non-use of productions tubing makes sense - the pressure is held in check though the use of a choke so if it's not needed to assist in unloading water, fluid then why install. Once again point well taken.
Gonoles - Thanks for the link. I enjoyed Empire's presentation by the CEO. I didn't realize Empire had around 1 million acres on the west side of our Beetaloo concession and 29 million acres under lease in Australia - and I thought our concession's 4.6 million acres was big!
I might be misreading and probably not for this board but am I correct that their Carpentaria flow rates per 1000 meters is somewhat lower than the Amungee 1H normalized flow rate - their pre and post soak figures are somewhat confusing and also utilizing open flow on 4 1/2 casing which I assume is not apples to apples comparison. I still compare to the Amungee 1H normalized well since Tamboran screwed up the 2H well and we haven't yet seen the SS1H well - maybe the SS1H will be a solid completion/frack! Also, it looks like these are much deeper wells than the SS1H well which plays into economics though I saw the mention of Empire bringing in these wells much cheaper than the other Beetaloo operators! Certainly not casting stones at Empire - just wanting to better understand what this part of the Beetaloo looks like - economics and performance wise. Always good to know what one's competitor is doing!