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Broken 310 key resistance & fundamentals good for long hold.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/could-rising-commodity-prices-boost-ma.html?&qsearchterm=peter%20bowden
Mid term view / 12 months from now, it’s a no brainier for me that oil will recover. As long as your not day trading, I believe any of the major oilers are fairly safe bet. Invest and forget it for 12 months.
Barring any other major global incidents, I think this is low risk, modest gain and hopefully return to divs.
Can’t say I agree, the AA are in desperate need of a rescue, their carrying £2.6B in debt, they have £913M in short term liabilities, which are maturing over the next 2 years and their making £107m in pre tax profits pa. The numbers speak for them selfs and the picture is pretty bleak. They need cash either through private equity partners, rights issue, and to ultimately to restructure their debt payments.
The plus side being that these private equity partners would not be circling AA if they couldn’t see an opportunity, but the right here, right now health check is poor. Your making a punt on either short SP squeeze on a deal or you really believe in a company turnaround.
FT reports 50/50 chance of a deal. It’s a casino stock now;
https://on.ft.com/2Hpbflk
Well it’s the last chance for HSS, this was not bolstering the balance sheet, they were on course for a £31M default from the receivers, with a January deadline.
Concern is they were struggling before Covid. The hope here is that their main institutional investors believe in them enough to fork out another £40M to rescue them. Question being ‘are they simply plugging a sinking ship?’
There’s always strong resistance at the 100 day average. It’s just touched the line. Historically sp pulls back, and the cycle repeats, but on a downward trend. There’s a very clear trend.
Volumes are tiny, this small cap can be very easily manipulated.
Let’s hope for a buck in the tend. Business fundamentals are good. It’s just needs some volume/good news.
Good write up on simply Wall Street ap.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iofina-plcs-lon-iof-fundamentals-081425438.html
They have £100m between short term assets and liabilities, But they appear to constantly be in contract arbitration, with huge penalties. My concern is that unless the physical management team have changed the cycle will continue. £45M one hit costs, when you have a market cap of £120M is huge! Have many times will get burnt and repeat the same mistakes.
Only the very brave here or those on the inside. All in my humble opinion, I have no idea of there pipeline of future contracts.
Not for me, GLA.
Yep its an interesting one, just based on the chats there should be a bounce to the 100day average. But who’s knows really, I think it’s worth a punt.
These small caps can be very easily manipulated,
Its remains a risk and I would not recommend gambling to much.
My view is a well thought through small cap in your portfolio is worth a punt.
In my opinion this looks a good entry point for the following reasons:
1) debt restructuring down to 16M, interest rate below 4%. Reduction in cash burn
2) Strong production rates.
3) stable iodine market price (I also see this as the biggest risk as it’s not in the companies hands) see link below on stable market rate at present
https://www.indmin.com/Article/3953520/Iodine/Monthly-iodine-prices-unchanged-again-as-spot-prices-slip.html
4) Chart, looking at the chart the SP has consistently bounced and the 100 day moving average, it’s due a bounce based on this pattern.
5) solid company, demand is relatively stable.
Low interest rates, weak balance sheet ( current liabilities exceeds current assets), weak earnings, high level of exposure to bad loans, IB world is current on its knees. Purely based on the fundamentals, which can not be denied. The near term future for Barclay is very negative.
Your pinning your hopes on its Equities team carrying the bank.
GLA
I don't share the same optimistic view, the balance sheet in the near term is weak, current asset ratio to current liabilities is not great, earnings will fall and the big one in the near term is the exposure to high risk loans. Barclays has significant exposure to high risk lending and are braced for the impact, I believe there will be a fallout from the impact, business's will default and fail, it's just how many and who leant them the money.
Its been a great week for the markets based on the battle against the virus and Mr Trumps statements, the real economical impact has not yet been seen.
The banks that are best placed have a strong Equities team, Investment banking has fallen off a cliff ( there are no M&A's) and retail banking is also currently going no where.
For me and this is only my opinion and my own research, this is headed for a big fall before any major recovery. What happens in the near short terms based on media releases and the fight against the virus, not for investing only day trading.
That said I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it. GLA
Looking at the balance sheet, Barc has short term assets £708B and short term liabilities £940B, in a normal world that would be acceptable, in this Covid world of reduced earnings, makes this stock less desirable based on servicing those debts, not to mention high risk loans. Short term not sure the outlook is great, but that’s based purely on their accounts and reduced knock on earnings and bad loans. Longterm your guess is as good as mine and the current volatility will be great for the day traders, not investors.
Based on current liabilities vs short term assets, there’s a healthy ratio of £1.5/5.75B. Longterm liabilities vs short term assets £628m/1.21B.
That’s a very strong balance sheet, to maintain a solvent business through a unprecedented period.
Question is will demand for new homes dwindle in the near and long term. There’s clearly a national shortage.
The other potential fly in the ointment was the SP back in late 2018 and the meteoritic rise ever since, there is a potential correction factor.
Regardless this is a very healthy balance sheet, with a business that can ride out the storm. Your really betting on what the housing market will be doing in the near and longterm future and these are unprecedented times your guess is as good as mine.
Day traders can simply enjoy the volatility.
SP movement is purely popular vote, these guys are running out of cash.
Looking purely at their 2018/19 financial accounts. The debt vs available Cash is not healthy, £2105M Vs 260M.
If you look at theirs current assets vs Current liabilities there a healthy 7:1 ratio. However the non current liabilities vs non current assets is the opposite. If those liabilities mature early 2021 they would be in big trouble and would need to service the debt from somewhere.
All said and done if their gaming business can pick up and Covid19 blows over they can ride out the storm. Sustained longterm issues, this organisation based on 18/19 accounts has significant debt vs available cash, that debt has to be serviced.