Member Info for wasarunner

Now a million shares to sell. 7.01p

I'm getting quoted on 600k shares to sell. A good sign. Somebody wants them, or MM's are short.

exciting times. $16k looming. Expect a bit of a barrier here for a bit but can we get through it.....
What a time to complete the deal. My money is still on everyone waiting to clear US elections now before we get news. I know nobody believes me but I'll stick to that theory to keep me patient another couple of weeks :)

He could buy 30% of Horizonte with the money he DIDN'T make on GGP by selling early.
That's mental :)

nickel +$200/t on the day which is +$700m to the contained resource value.
We have here an asset fluctuating $bn in value a day while the mcap drifts by £2-5m or so. That, I feel, shows that we are about an order of magnitude undervalued and why at production will be a $bn co.

dj do you know if he has bought in here (yet)? Would make a nice investment for somebody if they were diversifying. Of course, if you believe in your principal investment (as I do heavily here) you would tend to keep your investment in - eye on the prize as you say at production.

I guess if a PI achieves a sufficiently large investment in a co that then goes on to grow massively in mcap there is a reason not to sell down too much to retain a sufficient voting right to veto changes you don't like.

Lot of companies would give a lot to have $625m in the ground reserves. Not delta over 3-4 hours of the commodity being traded on the market.

There is a gigantic value disconnect here (Horizonte mcap vs Horizonte prospects) and it will connect. The seller is going to lose out. Maybe they've spotted a better opportunity elswehre.

nickel up $175/t, Horizonte down 0.4p. Please remind me what we have 3.5m tonnes of?!

Contained resource is up $612.5m USD today. Bananas.

buffeting the 15.8k area again, wonder if we'll see 16k in the weeks ahead. Good time to 'seal the deal'. Come on JM & crew we have the faith....

DJ you might be right, I don't know, it's a major event in the sense that USD is still worlds reserve currency and if you were putting pen to paper on a major major deal valued in $, you might wait 3 weeks to see where that goes! But as you say, I don't know really whether it has a bearing, long term of course is neither here or there, world will need nickel whatever the $ is worth. I'm probably showing a smidgeon of impatience, frustrating in a way I'd rather deal was done late Q1 (or even better, after 6th April) to use the house money and/or max the ISAs again. Lets see!

So 8 weeks takes us to 11th Dec I think final announcement on finance by then if it is going to be in 2020.
2+ weeks now to US elections, will any pending announcement to be held till after then? Gives around a 6 week window I reckon for news to land here between US elections and Christmas.
Nickel price for the moment is supportive, hopefully that continues and we see the ~$16k/t area play out during the final stages of financing.

At some point, if it isn't going to be 2020, the company will have to update on that.
Anyway the macro looks supportive but I wonder if the US elections will have pens poised to paper to see the outcome before deals are signed off. It is a pretty major event, wherever the rest of our money is coming from. GLA

I dont know anything about amc but it looks like the deposit is in eastern russia. Caveat I have no knowledge of the logistics or what is available there but a big factor in the laterite conversion cost (ie is it economical to produce and convert battery grade nickel from vermelho) comes down to where it is found - on the surface - and how well it is supplied by infrastructure and power. This is key and it is a reason JM justified why Vermelho could produce at lower capex than other hpal projects. My understanding is that many sulphide deposits, while more readily amenable to batteries, are in more remote parts of the world or often deep underground so you trade mining cost for pulling the battery grade straight out of the ground. Many reports have said no way electric/ev demand can be fully satisfied by sulphide deposits anyway so the better laterite deposits where the purity is amenable to hpal will have to be used to supplement it.

In any case we arent reliant here on batteries - Araguaia is targrting the stainless steel market (and will use hydro power) and Vermelho could easily do likewise and be very profitable.

For any newbies I wouldnt lose sleep over thst post! But I dont know of the credentials of amc it might be very investable in its own right.

I think as the ev story hots up 'misinformation' about sulphide/laterite will start to disappear as we see more and more mines gear up for the ev boom. It will be obvious where it is going once big auto starts securing thrir long term contracts etc. Gla

Dj looks like we got a buyer for our house on the weekend so if it stays this level till early next year completion I will 'top up'. Cant see it though I think news will land earlier. Gla

Fred a big de-risk here is the majors on register. Orion have provided $25m up front payment for a small % of Araguaia production, and clearly want a bigger piece of the pie. Teck and Glencore are senior partners with decent shareholdings, Glencore being an intermediary for Nickel (they buy the product and have the customers) so we are as close to having finance guaranteed as it gets on AIM, probably. If they wanted, Orion could finance the whole mine, lock stock debt,equity the lot - they do much much bigger deals.

Of course nothing is ever a certainty in this game but with where Nickel is going, Horizonte have plenty of interest and are hopefully negotiating right now to closing a deal which is in existing shareholders interests.

Basically having three top tier institutional investors here will pretty much guarantee the mine will be built. What happens to Vermelho is anybody's guess but with where EV is going, it won't sit idle for too long. Many AIM listed co's would give a lot for a single Tier 1 nickel asset, we have 2 (plus Serra Tapa, a third resource)!

As an additional, many here believe we won't go too many more years independent. The assets are too large, too advanced, too valuable not to attract external interest from majors and PE. We may get an offer post finance or we may get an offer around Araguaia mine complete we don't know. But will be very surprised if no offers in the next 3 years in which case a full takeout at premium is another likely outcome.

Hi Fred, welcome onboard. In 3 years time we expect Araguaia to be producing (first year, ramping up), so shareprice should be well north, estimates vary but most believe 20-50p is achievable. Further upside from Vermelho, which is the second mine, a bigger prospect but Horizonte have pretty much announced they won't progress it by themselves so a JV or sale looks more likely there.

Short term we are expecting news on mine financing to close the additional ~$120m needed over and above the senior debt facility to build the mine. The level of equity dilution is really of interest - most here believe it will be pretty modest, in which case a rerate should happen just on that factor alone (we don't know how much new equity but believe it can be done at premium and there are other financing routes - further govt debt, offtakes etc. to bridge into the $120m). Most here would be surprised if we don't see at least 10-15p post finance complete. By all accounts finance complete should be Q4 to start mine build in Q1 next year so clock very much ticking!

If finance is going to be complete I make it circa 8 weeks before Christmas period. There is a chance Covid delays things, we don't know, it was the one caveat given to us earlier in the year. But company seems pretty confident it is on track for this year, we have heard nothing directly to contradict that.

Long term upside here is enormous at anything like nickel $18k+. And yes, 7p is an excellent entry point. £100m mcap for a company which might one day see £1bn+. Good luck with your investment.

>>I'm in for nickel $30/lb. Bring it on....
In fact, that's $66k/t. I think Horizonte should update their calculators on the website so we can see what we're worth in that kind of nickel market!

https://www.resourcesrisingstars.com.au/news-article/nickel-demand-will-triple-back-energy-revolution-says-bhp-boss

"But he did offer up the range of public forecasts from high teens, up to $US30/lb. Nickel is currently $US6.93/lb.

“So, there’s quite a range of views at the present time but I think you can appreciate they (prices) are ultimately going to be higher than they are,’’ Haegel said."

I'm in for nickel $30/lb. Bring it on....

I test sold 4.8m when the big buyer (think it was Cannacord) was lurking. Happily I didn't accidentally sell. I wasn't being quoted a particularly good price but it was the only time I have been quoted for all Horizonte shares in one account.

I think the former. Probably par for the course trying to pull together offtake/brazil debt/any type of govt incentive debt (Brazil, other govt)/credit export agency/equity. Lots of parts of the jigsaw lots to do.

Say an offer was on the table for the co. would they immediately have to declare that via RNS or would they be able to discuss it with the interested party - for e.g. negotiate, before announcing? I think if they get approached and if the offer is worth putting to shareholders the announcement has to be pretty immediate? Because of course, that could be the other thing that lands one day.