Member Info for wasarunner

I think consensus on this board is, we will at least double our money (from here) on finance complete. The frustration I sense from some people is they want that sooner than later. That's absolutely understandable, everyone has their own circumstances, none of us get younger with any passing day, and some have been here a long time waiting for this to happen. The main thing is, quality will out, it should (covid aside) all happen and hopefully in a not distant future. In the meantime patience is all that's needed and for fortunate sods who can come into more funds, adding at these levels is very likely to make you money - short, medium and long term.

I suspect another challenge the BOD have had is, if they've been working to a rough timetable for production 2023, and 'go slow' on the first year of financing, Covid could have caught them unawares will less complete than they might ideally have wanted. I know what I'm like doing jobs, leave it to the last 1/4 of time remaining normally, and that might not have worked well in this case with lockdown.

Orion is a mixed blessing - deep pockets - but they are aggressive and will want their pound of flesh. One thing all of us can be damn grateful for though is they sealed the deal in 2019 with Orion - can you imagine running out of cash this year, and having to raise when the SP was on the floor at 1.7p? Would have been serious brown trouser moment in March without the Orion cash. So on a personal note - thanks to Orion and thanks for the BOD for that particular deal. GLA

Vaux how an accountant would value it (based on balance sheet and perhaps future p/e) and how the market values it are different things probably. Good example is eua which has a tiny balance sheet compared to the £1bn mcap but the market is ascribing a huge value to the resource. Here the market at the moment is ascribing bugger all value to the resource.

I am hopeful pickedpeck 0.7x npv might be achievable post finance as this then should factor current and future nickel price into the equation and not focus solely on the cash/debt etc. Thats good for investors because even if there are shorter term pullbacks on nickel price consensus in next 2 years is upwards trajectory. That would hopefully be north of £250m then depending on the shares in issue, anywhere from 15-25p might be achievable? But dont know. What I know is I wont sell those levels cos more is coming down the line. Gla

that's October pay gone. GLA

The date endevour were appointed - 2 years tomorrow. Takes a long time these finance deals. Yes we have seen activity this year (closing debt?) and we had Orion H2 2019 but still wonder what the first year was spent doing. Being an engineer (and this is perhaps a slightly naive view) I would have thought building a mine would take longer than securing finance to build a mine, but that appears not to be the case here.

Anyway, onwards and upwards. GLA

I added a few just now sadly very little funds. I will top up again tomorrow (payday hooray) if we're still below 6p. But I can handle a delay even if there is one, covid or just because its complicated. GLA

sentiment is fragile at the moment anyway (wider market drops and also a bit of recent nickel softness last couple of days) so hint of delay is enough to have people running for the hills.

My guess is it is a clumsy thing - worded a prior possibly sent through to the 121mining weeks or months ago, or someone has copied and pasted a brief. Bit of a PR own goal and don't know how they clarify it but my money is financing is going just dandy but complicated process and of course slippage is always possible (due to covid or just because, its a complicated deal).

Company has to be careful with communication though because people have expectations here, it has been a while coming. You can damage sentiment quite easily. Hopefully gets clarified 'nothing to see here' etc.

One of the challenges here is people have been loading up, long term holders up to and including this year, and some people switching into here over the last few months with a plan to build a solid stake. If there were a financing delay the fact that it opens up more buying opportunity - yes it is a positive for some - but my sense is a lot are fully loaded and that could be outdone by traders moving out and overall negatively affecting sp short term.

Personally I can only benefit in the Jan-Apr window so if there is a delay selfishly want it to be a few months at least. Sometimes these things can be a blessing in disguise (particularly if finance terms are good) but I know a lot of long term investors here are patiently waiting and don't want a protracted financing saga. We want to be getting the nickel out of the ground ideally as close to 2 years time as possible. GLA

as they say on the other board though - the form may have been filled in well before the event (as, for example, it states mine complete producing end 2022 - which is probably ambitious if build start were to be delayed). Lets hear it from the horses mouth when JM next speaks!

but that's not to say when/if that is made more formal the market doesn't like it and our sp doesn't slide. Oh well, roll on house sale. Details went up on estate agents website today :)

agreed - my guesstimate for a potential delay when covid broke in March was perhaps 6-12 months delay to financing. 6 months was baked in once we had the announcement that it would be aiming for Q4, so if this rolls into next year I'm not surprised. Best to get it on best terms and also - new financing avenues could be opening up as govts try to kick start economies. I really really hope somebody from Horizonte is talking to someone in the national/state Brazilian govt right now.

Yes frustrating but, there is always a silver lining. I have 5 ISA's to fill April 6th if financing isn't done and dusted before then :)

>>Heard a rumour that they are changing name from Horizonte Minerals to Verticale Minerals.....any truth in this!!
I heard the decision was pending and will be released in the 'all important' RNS :)

also you can argue the toss about graphite v nickel both have plenty of industrial applications but a 'risk off' aspect of Horizonte is that the first mine is targeting very established industries. Sure, EV is exciting, and sure we don't have a better solution for batteries yet, but just as a risk quantification measure the fact that stainless steel isn't going anywhere, grows very well yoy on demand side, and no short term prospect of substituting nickel just means risk is low. And the volume of demand means you can't just turn on loads of new capacity, or more importantly, you can't turn it on at Horizonte C1 costs. So surely Araguaia not getting financed is a vanishingly low probability in that context.

I suppose one aspect of ACP worth mentioning on the Horizonte board is one of risk reward because that is relevant to Horizonte. Personally, and each of us judges this differently, for me it's a more risky play. But IRR is huge. So reward _could_ (and I say could because I don't know) be higher.

What I find amusing about Horizonte in a way (though it will get less amusing if it stays this way another couple of years) is that the risk is relatively low (fully permitted, lowest quartile cost, and we have suitors with deep pockets so you imagine financing as a formality) and yet the upside is huge. So, the market isn't valuing it correctly. For me, perhaps, ACP is correctly valued for risk/reward at the moment but Horizonte certainly is not. Again risk judgement is subjective so all only IMO etc.

Hi Bwana (apologies for the O/T) I'll be truly honest and say I understand Africa little to invest in, so my stake is very modest and will stay that way. I am in touch with people who have contact with Matt Bull so the opportunity was recommended to me, I like the idea of graphite (even if it may not get used by all companies for e.g. Tesla trying to factor it out of their battery) as I don't think all manufacturers will go exactly one route with chemistry. As for the licence other miners have been granted licences recently I think, I know that's no guarantee, but it's at least one reason I keep my stake modest (my biggest miner loss was lack of permitting so I too learnt the hard way)! Just to put it into context I have 250k shares there for my 23m+ here so as I said v. modest stake.

That said I might be interested in scaling into opportunities like that as they progress. Clearly financing and permitting are risks (and not complete yet) but when they are, even at a higher price, it might be very investable.

Here of course at Horizonte just to bring it back on topic, we have all permits for Araguaia and surely would be a formality for Vermelho. Bigger mine build of course so financing is a bigger deal here. But permitting (at least while Bolsonaro is in charge) is hopefully a non issue for Horizonte.

Bwana great post. I don't know of institutions selling but there are a few that disappeared under 3% and we don't know and probably never will whether they continued and are out. But a lot of shares now are in PI hands and some chunky holders and who knows when and if they take risk off too so something that might look like an II might actually be one or more PI reducing of course.

To all on the board, I am genuinely at times torn between wanting an exit presented to me sooner than later, in the sense of that offer - mainly because I don't think it can come in so low. But when you sit back, read all the articles (thank you Luke and TickTock and pickedpeck et al) about where nickel is going and what the potential is, you realise that the longer Horizonte can stay independent, and the longer you hold your shares, ultimately the more you will walk away with. Which makes the challenge relatively straightforward - you've done your research, you like the BOD, you trust Brazil, so you hold (or add) and stay patient.

Knowing that, I will find it very hard to sell any size down before 'the end' come what may. I think some of our own forecasts of what this company is worth and what the potential is will get revised (upwards) in years to come with where nickel is headed, providing always that we do manage to stay independent for at least a little while longer.

I guess I'm saying I actually can't bring myself to sell the shares, even if I decided todays price gives me what I need (or even 15p or 25p gives me what I need post financing) if you believe that by waiting 3-5 years you can double, or quadruple that (or more). At some point you have to take some off the table but not a good while yet and really the FOMO for nickel hasn't kicked in yet, but hopefully it will in the years ahead. Staggering potential and all mostly still not yet reflected in our mcap. GLA

pickedpeck even by your usual high standards an excellent post thank you. The sun is half shining in Wales (or thereabouts) :) and I thought it always rained. As well as looking east we can look to countries like Norway for EV - not only what's possible, but what's coming. It's not about whether, it's about when - for EV, for nickel, and for Horizonte. GLA

SJ indeed good post - I was excited to reach 1% back around Orion announcement and I thought job's a good'un. The problem with a prospect like Horizonte, and my own circumstances (nice problem to have of course) was the investment case got better and better (taking sp out of the equation for the minute) with things like - Orion finance, Vermelho PFS. I kept coming into a bit of money, foreign property sale, gift here, took some out of business there and couldn't find a better home for it hence the eventual 23m.

Your problem of 'do I sell this winner' in GGP to 'buy this future winner' in HZM is of course a problem, and I know it is mentally stressful, but a nice problem. Anyone who doesn't find sitting on big investments stressful is probably not really getting it, it is stressful even when you're winning. And it makes moves like DJ to take risk off the table when wider problems hit totally understandable.

I've learnt loads on this board, about Brazil, about AIM, about how market makers work (I won't list them all but absolutely tonnes of great contributors here) and really appreciate all inputs. The goal here is clear - we're all in it to make money - some have different strategies I would never knock anyone for having a different strategy to my own. All valid and that's what makes a market of course.

On a positive - I really think US election done (minus a civil war on the outcome of course) will settle things down and up we will go. It has a disproportionate sentiment effect on global markets and we've got a special case this year (and I use the term loosely to describe the incumbent :) GLA

Incidentally there are at least two types of PI who will trade this with sentiment for at least two reasons I know of (ie I personally know some):
- there are PIs who pick a winning stock (i.e. they believe in HZM fundamentals, so limited downside long term, but very happy tot rade the range). They will absolutely trade wider market events - e.g. if there is a wider market drop just as happy to sell and buy back later on any drop - no drop - no problem - move to another favourite AIM winning stock
- there are PIs who for whatever their circumstances identify risk with the market situation and here external factors come into play like Covid. I had some nerves in March because Covid was playing with our business at the time. Never sold Horizonte but it would have been a normal thing to do at the time given wider context. Then came the bounce and a bit of govt support and back on an even keel.

I don't intentionally 'trade' a winning AIM share like Horizonte (though I have done this very successfully for several years historically on FTSE) for a couple of reasons:
- AIM seems to have a will of its own and I'm terrible at it when I try. Basically its as simple as - don't do something you're not good at. So you won't find me selling 3m in the hope I'll get them back cheaper in x hours,days,weeks later
- I am afraid of missing upside. I can't remember who (was it you Luke?) missed the Orion announcement by a few days. The day I try trading this will be the day we suspend pending a T/O for 40p.

So that's my two pence. Holding and holding strong and indeed, I've put longer term life goals (like buying a decently sized house in the country) on hold a few years to let this play out so I can hang onto my 23m shares. Because I'm really liking some of the estimates more experienced investors on this board and elsewhere are putting forward to what these beauties could be worth down the line. GLA

you know its a REALLY bad day on markets when Covid shares are tanking. What chance does a poor nickel miner have :)