Member Info for wasarunner

I bought this morning low 6s - both for me and my mother in law. I explained about real vs usd, possible commodity price inflation, forward view on nickel, brazil risk, covid, financing risk, govt infrastructure spending she agreed ;). I've now switched everything else I intend to sell into Horizonte so no more switching. Still a gift at 6p.

Late Q1 would really suit me now for financing (with house sale going through) but if it happens sooner, so be it, might as well make it next 4 weeks if so. I think the company being very quiet (and really nothing given away in the last quarterly) suggests it could really be anytime, and with no revised guidance yet that the debt package which they hoped to seal in 2020 isn't on track, there must be at least a chance we complete before Christmas. All to play for.

Nickel, copper flying. My two principal remaining investments. GLA

It appears LO have dropped below the reportable threshold (they aren't listed on the latest update). They were still there early Sept. How can they go below 3% and not report? That might also account for some of the selling, they had nearly 60m shares listed as at 23 May. I was trying to figure out how all the retail holdings can rise without an II seller and it appears this might be where the shares came from. We didn't see an RNS?

We aren't popular with our II holders. Maybe they will come back at higher prices.

I think they've x10.
Year Range13.25p - 89.56p
That looks around the year range if you divide by 10? Though I don't remember going as low as 1.325p - did we?

Thanks I do talk a lot though. Last post of the day unless we get a juicy rns. Oh its Saturday :) thanks owlo

owlo apologies if you blocked me I appreciate I probably post too much. Will attempt to shut up until we see concrete news, hard at times at the business end. Best. wasarunner

>>Cannacord are a fairly chunky holder I wonder if they have been offered in the equity round.
And, ?I think? have sold some. I'm sure they were at 150m shares prior to the update.

Shareholder Number of shares % of issued capital
Hargreaves Lansdown 242,293,180 16.72%
Teck Resources 210,207,179 14.5%
Interactive Investor 149,660,586 10.33%
Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management 145,000,000 10%
HSDL 91,920,129 6.34%
Glencore 88,362,682 6.10%
AJ Bell 69,601,613 4.8%
Barclays Smart Investor 40,451,431 2.79%

In terms of AIM Rules published May 2010 and insofar as it is aware, at 30 September 2020, 25.6% of the Company’s AIM securities were not in public hands.

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So - assume figures accurate as at 30th September? Cannacord are a fairly chunky holder I wonder if they have been offered in the equity round. WIll be interesting to see. They hold a good chunk more than Glen.

I'm not sure if they can, if they are involved in the negotiations? They are essentially buying then knowing information not in the public domain which they are under NDA for so at best it would be unethical but I'm not sure if market rules etc would prohibit it? I'm sure Teck & Glencore have been under NDA a good while while negotiations take place. Plus Teck have somebody on the BOD they have to be super careful as they are bound to have access to a lot of inside information even when not in negotiations.

Thanks nutkins! Looks like we (ii) have overtaken Cannacord. The II's have it from the PI's or is it the other way round :)

I'm on the fence here, I think financing is going on, and we're going to build a mine, but I'm suspicious about the lack of detail around engineering (naturally suspicious being an engineer) and actually minus the bank mandate we have little detail around the finance really other than 'milestones are being hit'. That's quite hard to verify when you don't know what they are or what's been hit.

I tell you all though if you wanted a good screen to negiate a sale Covid has given that opportunity. You can pretty much use the Covid excuse to cover any delays in what you're meant to be doing when you are negotiating a sale. Just speculation on my part though.

So lets assume it's all happening, lets assume finance complete in December or we get an update telling us it'll be Q1. Early Christmas present a 30p/sh all cash offer being the alternative and I'll take it and buy a nice EV to replace the focus. GLA

Ivor you mean this one?

https://horizonteminerals.com/uk/en/press-releases/2020/senior-debt-facility-mandate/

True but it was on 12/8. Today is 12/11 - 3 months elapsed 1.5 months remain. Not impossible it completes this year (and I hope it does), but clock is ticking. If the bit in Bwana's conversation around the fact that the finance package will be released in one go to market then the debt could be done waiting for the equity or vice versa and I remember many moons ago Jeremy Martin mention on an investor call that that's the way it works.

I've been suspicious a while though that we haven't had much news about what's going on on the ground - Pedro and team - yes since March we've had covid which must have hampered efforts but say pickedpeck is right and an offer is brewing would you be going full gas on the mine build prep? Unlikely. Lets see - could go either way still.

Obviously if T/O then we don't want lowball and apparently this is the most vulnerable stage to a lowball takeout so lets see.

yes a big downside of offering shares to retail at discount is the inevitable dump post listing which then pulls the price back to the discount so what's the point? And a lot of retail will dump existing shares at point of finance complete anyway (I know this because I know personally investors who will do this with Horizonte shares) so knowing this the company and broker are almost certainly better to try to place the equity with institutions.

Anyway nobody is getting my shares (PI's or institutions) for less than 25-30p anyway.

Lets face it post listing we will see orderly exchange of shares with PI exits and II buying so Peel Hunt's job is to make this as smooth and possible, and hopefully a gentle upward trajectory for the SP once a base SP has been established by the raise price. Exciting stuff anyway. Maybe not quite the timescales I had hoped but it will happen and worth waiting for.

in for another 103,654 shares. Pruning my position elsewhere. Still feel this 6p area is very value whichever way you look at it it, short, medium, long, and really doesn't reflect the nickel price at $16k or what's coming from the co. in short order here.

Yes that's my feeling Teck+Glencore+Orion+others but I suspect 'others' are already at the table...and agreeing/agreed a price.
Feels like it will be Q1 next year but stranger things have happened. Got 4 people viewing the house this week gets shifted quick I'll buy some more but suspect (and hope) I won't get a look in.

Bwana did you ask if 'other investors' meant retail? My reading of 'other investors' is potentially they might be talking to other significant entities who (in addition to Teck/Glencore/Orion) could be part of the equity piece. That would be encouraging as talking to more such entities should achieve a better premium overall with a bit of competition for the shares. It also sounds like that might be company level in which case I'm hoping for more than 9-11p if Vermelho is effectively diluted by it. Anyway we find out soon ish I guess!

Bwana, really thanks for taking the time. And interesting information. They aren't further than I thought they'd be, I think they need to be far along. A lot of time has been spent and they haven't (yet!) told us it isn't happening this year so it must be a possibility.

Yes the one aspect I don't fully understand is how they can offer shares to retail, I can't see it happening. To do that, they would need to raise the price materially through the cornerstone placing as retail will only subscribe at discount to current shareprice. I can buy today at 6p why would I buy in say 4 weeks time at 12p? The price would already need to be 15p etc. Not saying that is impossible but hard to get done in anything like the timescale they have quoted for financing? They would have to be announcing details of the wider package around today to be getting retail shares placed this year?

The fact the financing announcement looks like it will be all in one go (RNS) is interesting and I have to say it was looking more and more that way. It suggests you are either in or out at that point you won't get to buy in on the journey. Expect a pretty big rerate that day and I wonder if knowing that people will now take a position.

So the question remains will it be this year. FWIW I think build will start later than (I) anticipated in any case maybe middle of next year? But as long as they are processing ore in 2023 I'm relaxed, may as well produce the stuff when it is nice and expensive.

Personally wouldn't be able to partake in any offer anyway and I'm fully positioned anyway so literally nothing to do but wait. Really liking the current nickel price. Thanks again Bwana for taking the time not just for the call but to update the board. GLA

I've got just around 10m Horizonte shares in ISAs (x5 now). At todays SP it's £600k and I know I'll never have the opportunity to do that again. That's where the 1.xp shareprices really helped. Until they scrap the ISA wrapper then of course it's all moot....

I think it is coming, maybe not immediately, but at some point. Saving grace is to stuff the ISA to the rafters and here the low sp over the last couple of years has helped. If it looks like legn will change for new tax year (unlikey I think) I would seriously consider selling outside the ISA even to buy back. Would really prefer to have the finance deal done well before end March though.

I know an accountant who is selling their home which has appreciated some £800k since they bought it. hmmmm. Wonder why. Wonder if they know what's coming. Sadly my house is worth chump change so CGT not really an issue there....

Hope you're right dj, our house wont sell before feb and I hope by then Horizonte will be double digits, I wont chase it then, those funds will go into something else hence the rejig to be fully positioned here. 24m shares is plenty, price targets 15p 2021 and 30p 2023. Relaxed as I feel Vermelho is a bonus, Araguaia is the here and now and (hopefully) imminent! And can justify these numbers in and of itself. Gla

For better or worse rejigged portfolio on recent rises elsewhere so I now have slightly more horizonte than before (23+1m sisters I will buy one day so just under 24m). Now happy with portfolio and timescales and will sit back and wait patiently, we have a huge winner here in years to come and will stay the course.

Like everyone here I would like a rough guide to fianncing timetable, what if anything might land this year and what next. I am resigned to it being done in q1 but will be a pleasant surprise if wrapped up pre christmas. Personal feeling is Vermelho will be left undeveloped 'come and get me'. And thats fine with me.

Eerily quiet implies work is going on in the background. That interview that got cancelled etc. Gla