Member Info for wasarunner

Serro do tapa once I located it probably has enough resource to warrant a further mine (it is right next to araguaia north). It is a ridiculously asset rich company. Did we mention cobalt? Then there is the biproduct fertiliser which when we looked at it on its own justified a £50-100m mcap! And that is a biproduct...

Ivor I keep it simple - assume 1.6bn shares inc option rising to 2bn with financing. Some options just lapsed. With 2bn shares it still adds up really nicely - $1bn+ npv araguaia stage1+stage2 divided by 2bn shares is still a big number. Obviously we all hope nickel goes $25k/t then we're cooking!

When peel hunt started covering their valuation for araguaia was 14p risked 33p unrisked (this summer) I think. Most of us are hoping post finance we end between those values then a more gradual rise to production. I am pretty lucky 15-20p will do just fine but any more is well - a bonus!

My calc is 2bn shares.£100m distributable (stage 1+2) - this is easy. 5p/sh. From Araguaia. Opex is very low -$7-8k/t. Above nickel $16k/t its printing money.

£90m was gbp. I think it is pessimistic they can make £10k/t gross profit at right nickel price. Thats more like £145k.

Have a look at the npv calculator on the hzm website. Each project has >$1bn npv at nickel $16.5k.

Basically i think miners (especially a single jurisdiction single commodity miner) will trade at lower p/e than other stocks but others here think higher. It doesnt matter we have so much headroom here from current shareprice this really is as simple as it gets in investment terms!

Bb2 not necessarily because I think miners are valued at lower % of revenue on account of the underlying commodity being volatile so there is some risk. But 50p-£1 I figured might be possible on Araguaia alone. Based on npvs each of araguaia and vermelho individually could command that kind of sp, as long as nickel was strong. Strong being at least $16-$20k/t but higher nickel prices are of course possible and have happened historically.

Given I initially invested here in 2018 for eventual 20p, I think I will see thst target next year. Fairly convinced of it actually.

We dont know what will happen with Vermelho. But we have a savvy BOD and they aint giving it away cheap.

Its cheap super cheap at current prices. especially considering todays rns telling us finance is essentially done barring the covid.

Hard to estimate for Vermelho because we wont develop it fully ourselves. But being a bigger resource we expect payment for it whichever way it goes - jv or sale. It has a higher npv than araguaia at same nickel price.

During capex payback years 1-2p might be realistic. Basically it will have a turnover of $500m+ just from Araguaia with stage 1 and stage 2 complete. The unknown at the moment is eventual shares in issue but we are mostly speculating not much dilution.

Hi bb2, Peel Hunt are saying ebitda £90m by 2025. That would be for stage 1 only. That assumes a modest nickel price I think better is possible. Also, stage 2 could be accelerated. I am very much hoping for dividend of 3-5p per annum eventually from araguaia alone. Thats the investment case for a real long term hold with vermelho upside from those numbers - nothing in peel hunt estimate for vermelho. With an average of around 3.3p I am looking for my investment back yoy basically somewhere after initial capex paid down.

LG I've been trying to tell my mate his biggest risk is not necessarily that the resource isn't there it's that it is priced to sell and they announce no offer. What price does it go to then? Horizonte is priced to build, EUA is priced to sell. Presumably EUA would drop to Horizonte prices (or lower....) I've been trying to tell him to at least de-risk it a bit on that basis. Not all companies put up for sale sell, well not at the anticipated prices anyway.

Looking back at all my trades across all time on Horizonte (buys) and both my lowest purchase price and highest purchase price were in 2020. 1.65p and 8.615p. Interested if anyone has managed to buy lower or higher? It is quite a spread for one calendar year!

>>Advancing Vermehlo next year
Is anyone taking this to mean 100% certain we are only financing Araguaia in this initial round? It does sound like it? Absolutely no chance of Vermelho coming into the mix at this stage?

I suppose with starting the build in H2 there is some need to manage cash until then I don't know how much of the existing retained cash can be used in H1 to advance Vermelho.

Good interview though, exciting times. He doesn't sound like a man not about to complete the megadeal of this company's lifetime.

sub 10p Feb 7th
sub 10p Apr 6th
20p+ Dec 31
All dates 2021.

Would do me very very nicely indeed. If only one or two of the three happen I don't mind (but I would like the last one obviously!)

jd indeed - if today isn't a nod to the market from Horizonte BOD to say 'nearly done barring the covid' I don't know what is. Basically saying they have at least one of everything lined up on the finance package (debt/equity/offtake) to go and probably only the covid situation holding up the signing, with more deals to come/to be done.

I think we're more dependent now on vaccine news than anything else that's in Horizonte's control. That means it is done and dusted as far as I'm concerned because the vaccines will be here Q1.

Sorry about the O/T but selfishly hope EUA doesn't get sold in the next few months before we can add here. There is an awful lot of PI money tied up there looking for a home if they get their big payday. That could actually factor significantly here into the share price movement pre financing. There is a finite pool of high quality junior miners to invest in on AIM.... plus I don't want my mate being right, holding EUA to sale and then buying in here pre finance when I got my timing on that wrong.... :)

I added a small piece (6.45p) not that I'm a trader or anyone should follow that in that sense! But it just seems cheap and I had a spare £1k! Every little helps as they say...

Bwana I'm pretty confident after today we will see sub 2bn shares inc options when this plays out, and indeed we could have almost no equity dilution. That's pretty huge news with (as AIM says) Vermelho to come, even if the latter news is post finance or 2022. I'm quietly confident now that 20p next year will happen and of course many on this board have predicted higher but like to stay grounded. A very good day indeed.

Indeed, to anyone already well positioned here but with potential further funds to come it is win win - rerating news means your existing holding rises, no rerating news means opportunity to add in months to come.

I had forgotten, till this moment, potentially the most significant aspect of this (for me but there must also be others). I had genuinely thought financing was guaranteed by 6th April, hence the ISA would be getting 15p - for me the 5 ISAs, the difference is between moving 666k shares at 15p or 1.33m shares at 7.5p. No guarantees we will still be at 7.5p of course but it is quite a big additional 'sheltering' opportunity if it plays out.