Member Info for wasarunner

Well - I don't think the company are going to do much promoting pre finance. Suits me. I suspect the promotion will happen after finance then Peel Hunt will get involved. And probably without promotion and with what we know the bigger money is not yet going to make a move here. All I'm hoping is present price come Feb & April after that it can be rockets away. I'm quietly hopeful we stay under radar a little while longer but appreciate my view may not appeal to everyone who is getting frustrated here :) GLA

>>Problem is I am out of free cash now.
Aha you've hit the same problem I've hit Bwana. Doesn't happen to Goldman Sachs (they have infinite cash available) and the twitterati (they have infinite top up tweets available). Never mind there's always next year I do feel a buying opportunity here will remain for a little while yet!

Would be good if the market realised our resource is Nickel not US Sugar #11. The former commodity is up 4.1% the latter, like our shareprice, is down 1.4%.

Isn't simply wallstreet computer generated? I chuckle at these lines:

RISK ANALYSIS
- Earnings have declined by 25.8% per year over past 5 years
- Volatile share price over the past 3 months

No s**t sherlock :) We're building a mine....

is there a big sell being worked?

Largest amount I can get quoted is 500 shares. What does that mean? I was trying to see if there is a buyer lurking.

Wow 16,810.00.
>>Welsh Alps
love it, bet they're beautiful this time of year.
Yes nickel looking very strong into close for year, will Horizonte follow suit? All in all a very good year though I expect we all hoped finance would close 2020. Never mind, I'll drink to it happening in 2021.

picked, as ever, excellent post and I agree.

FWIW - I've reconsidered and now realise although the initial Orion investment was 'significant' it was not a full de-risk and the investment here remained, as you correctly state, slightly speculative. Why? Simply because they can afford to lose $25m if it doesn't play out. So we who remained invested through 2018 & 2019 were still speculating that the financing deal would get done. We heard good noises about banks being interested but nothing concrete on that.

In 2020 with the August announcement on banks, then the latest update RNS, we have a lot more confirmed and I am with you on this - we are definitely moving much closer to a certainty outcome of building a mine. Not quite there, but very much getting there. The market hasn't woken up to it yet, the SP hasn't moved (but it might in Q1), I hope it doesn't, as I would like to take a further decent tranche in Feb.

None of this rules out a company sale but it does look more likely that that would come at around mine built and ready.

I think we also got more than a hint that Vermelho isn't being considered in the current round, and that is significant news in itself. Lots of upside there to come.

It is looking like a pretty exciting 2021 for Horizonte.

Apologies if already posted.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/55229009

"Electric cars to get a green number plate from today"

We will soon know who the Jones' are and that will accelerate the revolution...

I don't understand how an electric car can have a turbo? Doesn't it stand for turbine? Which bits the turbine in an electric car?

Anyway details aside, it is coming. The other key factor to consider - if you are a manufacturer, what do you do. What if all the Jones' simultaneously want one, your competitor has built and adapted all their factories to only produce EV, you haven't. You're going out of business fast.

Whether it is consumer or industry or government led almost doesn't matter, it will just happen simultaneously IMO.

biggest risk I see here is not owning enough shares to benefit from the inevitable rise in shareprice as the assets appreciate towards their NPV values. I've been trying to mitigate that risk by acquiring said shares at every opportunity for the last 2.5 years...

Tony - the risks and mitigation will have been well explored by Orion before they provided $25m and of course much more recently the banks (who have mandated $325m) and especially the bank mandate is very encouraging because of course it took place in the post Covid era. So these entities will do much more DD than we will and can (quite right, they are parting with $325m which is serious cash in anyone's book) and them being happy would suggest we should generally be so, with the risk!

Risks - political (low, good jurisdiction) not getting the finance done (low, all the indications are finance is getting done) nickel price below production cost (very low, C1 costs ~7-8k/t makes money in any market)

As AIM says, risks to any stock in any market but this is as low a risk as they come.
FWIW the biggest risk the market is pricing is not getting finance done. And this has always been stressed to me by people connected with the company and other investors.

Friday's RNS got us much closer to the finance being done. That the market hasn't interpreted this (yet) as a massive positive is almost certainly because people have short time horizons and see the delay as an equal and opposite factor (whereas of course, it isn't). GLA

Also don't forget the 'need' to offset bad news with good news. By dropping the 'oh but we do have the $32m from Brazilian bank' they at least offset some bad news. Sentiment isn't everything, but it still has to be managed....

Sorry maths wrong Orion could take more (I ignored Tecks holding in calc) 600m+ shares and still stay under threshold. Really dont see that many being issued though...

Orion could take 529m new shares with nobody else participating and stay under 30%. Not sure Teck would like that though. That would potentially raise a big slug of the remaining capex quite easily though if done at premium.

Reality is this will be the very last part of the jigsaw we will find out. I am hopeful it will be modest and all other avenues like offtake are also secured. If it is offered to Orion I expect they would be prepared to buy in at quite a decent price, given project npvs etc.

If it were to be Teck, they can take 319m new shares at which point they have 29.977% of the company (if nobody else takes shares). At 10p that would raise about $41m - so would constrain the amount of equity which can be raised unless others also participate. Of course, the price could be higher to raise more money, or, if others participate Teck can also take more and keep under 30%.

My money on the cornerstone is still Orion though. But if I were Teck and eventually I wanted a decent option to buy this company up at a reasonable price, I'd also want to participate. It will be interesting. I'm hoping Teck and Orion both being interested should drive a decent price on any equity raised.

Hi Vaux, hopefully you're right, and of course we like a glass half full. Hopefully all of the contingency won't trigger or, they can agree some kind of flexible financing to cover it if it does too.

But this line in the RNS:
"· Capex and opex remain in line with Feasibility Study values following comprehensive review."

Suggests it hasn't necessarily fallen a lot. But then again, you always want to plan for the worst, hope for the best. Reality is they can't possibly fix all project costs right now for a project which will complete in about 2.5 years time. How do you know what price diesel will be (in Real's) in 2023 when the project is completing? Impossible, hence probably the contingency.

Anyway it is all good. I was expecting the delay TBH and had already adjusted my timescales for it and there is so much positive in the RNS I think it hugely outweighs the negative (that there is a delay). I guess the moral of the story is, if you invest in an explorer-miner-come-developer don't expect everything to run to a precise timetable which can be nailed down at the weeks level. But then we all knew that already hence we are here for the long haul etc........

https://www.glencore.com/what-we-do/metals-and-minerals/nickel

"Our marketing business deals in nickel metal as well as concentrates, intermediates and ferronickel."

I do believe they trade a lot of ferronickel they didn't mine themselves.

It won't be a car manufacturer as the product is ferronickel. Unless they are really going to convert it to nickel oxide.

I think it will be Glencore (the obvious choice) as they are already a shareholder, and already trading/selling a lot of nickel to clients which they don't mine. They obviously also mine lots of nickel. Glencore is a ready made customer for Horizonte.

Just on the exchange rates et al don't forget that not all the capex will be in Real. When I spoke to SR he mentioned half, I don't know how accurate that is though.

I think if we broadly assume that inflation of the capex of the project (and lets face it with restrictions and things it is likely more expensive now to have foreign entities on site to build the mine) has been offset by the depreciation of the real, and any optimisation they have been able to do in the value engineering - that is a good outcome. I don't assume it will be cheaper than the DFS, indeed, the RNS confirms 'in line'.

But that's quite an achievement given 2.5 years will have elapsed since DFS and Covid will generally have made the world a more expensive place to do business in, not less. I know my full basket of goods from Tesco is more expensive than pre Covid (a poor relative example I know but still...)