RE: Somebody buying in size...???8 Jan 2021 19:04
prionace it wasn't meant too negatively by the way and in fact with EUA I found it hard to value the assets but I was in from 2.8p - 11.5p. I wouldn't blame anyone for taking profit, profits profit and people have their reasons perhaps sometimes unconnected from the company.
Here with Horizonte I think it is much easier to value the potential (than EUA). But in terms of numbers of stages of rerate left here, there are too many to mention. With EUA if you look at a sale scenario it is binary - yes/no/price (not quite binary but you know what I mean). If it doesn't sell, it will surely rerate down in the short term until up and running with production.
With Horizonte you have potential rerating events:
- Stage 1 finance lands
- Nickel price rises
- Stage 2 finance lands
- JV for Vermelho
- Stage 1 into production
- Stage 2 into production
- Vermelho into production
- nickel price rises again
- EV replaces ICE (every step on this journey will knock on impact to nickel)
- EU announces it can only use 'clean' nickel etc. Not the stuff from Indonesia
There's just a massive lists of future events, I don't know if we'll see them all as an independent company but in terms of to answer the earlier poster about 'should I enter' - you should, because none of those steps are priced in. What we know is that at TODAY's nickel price we have $70bn in the ground + few $bn cobalt + some fertilizer. But what about when the $ devalues as is surely going to happen? What about the commodities 'supercycle'? What about the electrification of the world?
My view is people selling at 9p are the EUA equivalent of 2p and we still have a whole lot, maybe the equivalent of 43p to go. But it might take years, but we're here for the journey right :-) Anyway I'll shut up now, highest close since 2013 - we'll take that for first week back, lets see what the year brings!
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