Member Info for wasarunner

If I'm a barometer (I am invested, would consider investing more but no funds at the moment anyway, and if I did, would really have to consider it hard) it is a mixed situation here - fundamentals are very good, but history is very chequered. Once and if the mgt team get this flying, the newsflow turns positive and reflects in the financial results, it will of course show a big valuation gap between where we sit at the moment and the true value/potential of this company. The question as always is - do you put more money in. I probably would at present levels but would moderate the amount for risk/reward. It is when people like me start thinking that this is an absolute steal with low downside risk that the share will take off IMHO.

It may take a quarter, two, and it may not be the mgt team that achieves it it may be the market that wakes up. It will also be positive to see a solid sustained price for copper and gold - looks very good for 2021 at the moment but things can always change.

As always good luck all holders and also anyone planning a buy in / top up.

Just for hoots, who minds sharing % of portfolio value at 9.5p HZM.
Mine's 99.32%. Feels like a conviction trade :)

m_a agreed and I think here we have the benefit of targeting an established industry with Araguaia for stainless. It is the right way round at the moment, I'm not saying EV is uncertain or the nickel content of batteries isn't forecast, but it is better that we target an established industry as it should be able to secure offtake right now for demand right now, quite easily.

I do see Vermelho as the icing on the cake in that it could 'inflate' our valuation at the appropriate point in the lifecycle of the EV story. Nobody here will complain about an inflated valuation for Horizonte in due course, as a means to exit at least some of their stake. There will undoubtedly at some point be a valuation premium for miners such as Horizonte which can produce battery grade nickel, over the ferronickel only counterparts. I'm hoping such an inflated value can be generated around 2023-25 when all these factors are in play:
- main auto manufacturers are all full gas EV
- nickel price is flying
- intermediaries are scrambling for supply

Ahead of this we might see premium valuation for Horizonte anyway if we see a beauty parade for would be partners to develop Vermelho. We will start to get a better feel for what it will be due in due course I think as time passes now. But for now stay grounded and value us on Araguaia alone is fine - 23p-33p 'will do' for starters...

Welcome Libero the more the merrier! Hopefully the serious part of the journey has only just begun....certainly most old timers here see lot of upside from current levels.

It has a slightly eerie FOMO feel at the moment building. Can't put my finger on it but saw it a bit with EUA and other stocks. Kind of a - story hasn't really changed but people's perceptions that it is real have changed or something. There's not much we know today we didn't know about in September after Elon Musk tweet + bank mandate news, yet here we are approaching 10p. Yes nickel is higher but nickel was high in 2019 and we didn't get anywhere near 10p.....

Cantor are assigning a valuation of around £335m. That sounds a lot like post finance pre build to me and sits comfortably in range with what I thought might be possible at that stage (or, they are assigning a higher mcap with an assumed dilution). At production, the same mine should be worth more (at any decent nickel price). Probably nothing in that valuation for Vermelho or A2. So for my money, the assumption is the assumption (23p is based on finance being a given) but on that basis it is an immediate target after finance is completed - i.e. a 12 month target for the shareprice. I'm not sure whether the 33p valuation by Peel Hunt 'unrisked' is a target price for 12 months, therefore also immeidately post finance, or where they see the eventual valuation at production on the basis of Stage 1. In the article where they first valued Horizonte they mention the EBITDA in 2025 perhaps they are saying 33p at production. I know broker targets are typically 12 months though.

Either way most here would take 23-33p this year surely as a good outcome for the year? I know some have predicted more, and I hope they're right, but I would certainly see that as a very decent milestone along the journey towards the real riches in 2023-25+ and beyond. It feels doable - certainly my original investment case estimate of '7p post finance rising to 20p at production' seems a tad on the conservative side. But then I am a de-ramper so it figures ;)

I'm wondering if we might see parity SP HZM/EUA this year. If they don't get a deal done, and we do, it wouldn't be beyond the realms. Maybe after slight dilution here as part of the finance package and adjusted for their 80% ownership of Montechundra parity on SP would still leave Horizonte at half the mcap of EUA. Makes you wonder doesn't it what we're really worth (it is certainly a different value to what the market is ascribing at the moment!) I'm not trying to guess what that SP might be, could be 20p/30p/40p or a different number again but just as a technical exercise it will be very interesting to me how close to parity we get. We're hovering towards 1:3 at the moment. Of course, they seal the mother of all AIM deals before us, that might not happen. But we could yet seal the mother of all AIM deals here too. All to play for....

Interesting isn't it my last buy here of any size:
25/11/2020 BUY HZM LSE 159618 0.068999 11077.54

At the time I really had to think about it - I was selling another share at modest profit but obviously evaluating the benefits of having some diversification vs the value I saw here. Price paid, 6.9p wasn't particularly high or particularly low to recent levels, it was just what it was. But the story on Horizonte remains the same at all these levels - massive upside, still cheap.

Today I'm thinking 9p is cheap. If I get 9p or anywhere near, when my next proper tranche of cash lands in Feb, I'll be over the moon and in it goes.

It must be a well understood paradigm in investing that we judge value relative to our historical perspective on that value. So today we think 9p might be toppy because last year we saw 6p, 3p, 1.7p so on. It takes a strong mindset to break out of that way of thinking and focus on what you really believe something is worth, and understand that the value gap will close at that point. That's why I've kept investing here even when the price continues to move up. I think investors who have been around the block much more than I have will say averaging up is the safest way of investing, as opposed to averaging down. I very much used to think the other way round, but I'm learning.

GLA - do think the breakout must be confirmed here. Suspect we will now close above 9p but don't want to jinx it!

Suspect 10p is when not if, the question is will it be a natural barrier or will we go higher? Find out soon enough I expect. Personally expect it to be tested in Jan always assuming no bad macro news and nickel remaining reasonably robust. Biden getting sworn in and getting going can't hurt here.

Can sell 600000 shares at 9.1p....

suspect as people start to believe the opportunity to trade out to re-buy is easing away (more as a function of time than anything else - we're about 11 trading weeks away from end of Q1 with a decent/evens chance the new lands by then) selling will slowly dry up. Assuming we still have buyers who are interested to a point, we should see the price drift up on anticipation even on modest volumes. I guess people will have possible sell levels above this point where they might slice or take profit but would you really take profit 11 weeks (or less) from the company making news?

Don't see II buyers at this stage for whatever reaonss best known to them still believe they will join the party after finance lands. Suits me - that pretty much guarantees further upside when they pile in.

Yes my feeling (and that's all it is) is the next announcement on Vermelho will be the partner, who will take it forward. I don't necessarily see Horizonte driving it, unless the lead times on permitting etc. is such that there are things you want to be doing right now for eventual development. But who knows. Earlier the better IMHO for the same reasons - you want the mine to be hitting the cycle, which in my view means built and producing by/before 2025 and not later.

Nth the only thing I'm not sure about (I like the idea BTW) is do people do royalty at PFS stage? I'm not sure if I asked SR that question back in the day or not but I have a nagging thought at the back of my head they don't. Has anyone got an example of one? At PFS stage you aren't concrete enough about what is going to be built, to ascribe a value.

Might they try to fund Vermelho BFS through the initial agreement on Araguaia - perhaps raising extra capital from Orion? That's an interesting one I don't think they need too much funding. You could try to leverage the financing talks on Araguaia (particularly if equity is at parent co level) to get sufficient funding for next stage of the Vermelho journey.

I was hoping the focus would make it (10yr old) but it is in death throes alas. So I've swapped it for a 2009 xtrail! For the mileage I drive at the moment really doesn't matter what it is but definitely keep an eye on EV market and see what's what come 2023...would like something sporty I'd love to get the new Tesla Roadster or something like that.

eccentric, yes, genius, yes, bit of an idiot, yes. Fine line between genius and crazy man I think he actually treads it well. First and foremost though he is an engineer, which of course I like about him and not a salesman. Suspect the over promise is very much part of running the type of company he runs, you have to do that to get the backing (financial, suppliers etc.) where you need it. You're kind of always catching up from what you last promised, it's an arms race.

If his greatest achievement becomes to turn the auto industry to take note and for govts to consider it as an alternative he has already achieved great things, with or without success of Tesla itself. You do feel others are scrambling to catch up. Probably the key for Tesla is bringing their cars down in price a bit. Again it's going to be a fine line between remaining a premium car, but being affordable 'enough'. Apple seem to do this quite well - I don't buy iphones but impressed with how well they sell. The risk to Tesla is probably cheaper competition from established big auto.

I'm slightly embarrassed to say I've plumped for my brother in laws old diesel 2/4x4 for the minute as a transitional stage to get me through a couple more years as I don't know where we'll be living. But this is the last non-electric car for me and when it comes to buying house (and car) from Horizonte proceeds it'll be electric all the way. Hopefully as early as 2023?

What do people think about Vermelho? My feeling is we will have solid news next year, if not this year. I don't necessarily expect anything this year just because it is a big job to kick Araguaia off but surely the mgt team can turn some attention to that in 2022 once the build is underway?
GLA

You're hoping the 7am rns doesnt have Teck making us a £1/sh offer then ??. Dont sell out cheap....

Literally the only critique of the BOD so far can be somewhat fluid timescales but I have learnt over the years here that that is the nature of the junior miner beast and many factors are out of their control. The reason they can't be precise about timescales is because timescales aren't precise. However, delivered on everything they promised so far and the finance deal will be a huge milestone and one that I am as close to 99% certain will happen this year as I can be. Gla

swest totally understand where you are coming from - I'm in similar situation (in fact close to all in). However, consider this 80% AIM stock 20% non AIM stock. 20% is owned by two of the top mining companies in the world (6% by the largest mining company in the world by revenue). So it's an 'AIM++' stock for me.... Technically you're investing 20% of your capital in Glencore/Teck here and there's no sign they're selling down - probably quite the opposite.

Parkboy I was invested in eua too. I would say not - we are at the eua 2.5-3.5p equivalent stage (in both mcap and relative to eventual value) so you may have missed the 1.7p-8.6p bit of the rise but the 8.6p-50p bit is still to come. It might not happen as quickly as eua though, maybe some years for full value here but 2021 should have a significant rerate catalyst being finance complete on 1st stage of 1st mine. Good luck.

600T similar, but I'm not naive to think it will happen again. On HZM exit it's 10% AIM, 90% FTSE/other investments perhaps property etc. for me. HZM will be the initial wealth generator however. We all have to be lucky at least once in life I reckon....

If it was really easy to multiply your wealth by 10x every 2-3 years, well, where would we all be in a decade or two. But I think we'll multiply our wealth by 10x here in 3 years (counting back a year maybe)...