Member Info for wasarunner

picked - yes more plausible and you won't find me complaining if that is the case :) Also leaves open the window for a more detailed negotiation involving 'the bigger picture' of A2 and V into the same deal of course. Lets see! If company is sold by June 30th some of the properties we've been drooling over for sale in our area might still be available....

Teck can't be buying surely, if party to the negotiation. I don't think any party who has signed NDA will be permitted to buy right now...

picked possible, as you say, but at risk of sounding like a stuck record we were given Covid as a delaying factor, both in the official RNS' and also what I heard when I discussed with SR, maybe an excuse maybe not but lets see. Here in the UK we are near another peak. I know it will get better, and I know people will move on finance ahead of that date, but precise timing is still uncertain in my mind - Easter feels more plausible to me. Just my 2 pence. Partial news could of course land anytime as well....

Maybe I'm just hopeful it isn't soon because I want to invest more. Can't blame a man for wanting more of a good thing....

we have momentum and it feels like 10p should go today. If people aren't selling, and enough believe the days of single digits are running out. greed is as powerful motivator as fear they say. With still a while to when I believe finance news drops I am genuinely surprised by the action in the last 2 weeks but that's markets for you....

Whats funny is money was nearly free before this pandemic started because we were still recovering from 2008 we were told. How much longer free money? Another 12 years? I will gladly take deposits from customers who pay me interest to hold their money. As long as they accept I will invest it in hzm of course! Gla

Right now lloyds is a bigger risk otherwise they wouldn't be mulling negative interest rates right? If you're invested in anything that is fundamentally linked to the value of currency hang on to your hats as the economic impact of the virus hasnt even started yet. Property, gold, nickel, dare I say it even the crypto stuff might be safer haven than currency :)

Well done mate risks still yes, but diminishing by the day. We are courted by PE with a fund of $1bn+, two of the worlds largest miners hold 20% equity, one has a director on the BOD, cornerstone equity is pencilled, debt mandate is signed, nickel $3.5k/t above base case and $10k/t above b/e why are we still talking about risk? Covid, the risk, is now a delay no more. Probably safest investment on AIM with a damn good upside to boot. Gla

>> I expect solid news on Horizonte within 18 months of then
Sorry Vermelho. Q3 2021 - Q4 2022 I expect something very concrete to happen with Vermelho. Can't see them going into 2023 and leaving it as is.

seeing a bit on twitter PIs buying back in after selling lower. Doesn't make sense to me. Yes derisk on a sp target or a timeline target but why sell at 7p and buy back at 9.5p. IN the same week/week later. What's changed? But once you sell sell with conviction. Don't chase it up!

There will be a time to derisk here but I would wager that time is still a long way away. Apart from finance news, I expect solid news on Horizonte within 18 months of then. Each is a possible de-risking event - sell a bit at finance - sell a bit on Vermelho news (bound to land before build complete), sell a bit on build complete and start production.

I may take 1m shares off the table at each of those stages, would seem sensible, always a minimum SP now for me would be 20p to sell, then run with 20m shares beyond production. Not a significant derisk but man gotta eat right?

I think we'll see 20p at a minimum, high, this year. On the basis that the II's haven't got going yet, the herd haven't arrived yet, and we briefly flirted with 10p still in the absence of concrete finance (complete) news. GLA

My strategy - wait for the kind of buyers we saw on EUA. The ones that took £250k-£400k shares on a pop (delayed buy) and all got listed after hours. Absolutely no problem selling then. Should happen here 0-6 months after finance complete I guess which I make the second half of this year unless JM slips again :)

I had the same thing with the bounceback loan! Applied for it - Horizonte sp 2p. Loan landed 2 weeks later Horizonte SP 3.30p. Just don't get the rub on the 'trades' :)

Checked volume (delayed) I see 13m today, not bad but nothing huge relative to recent days. So it doesn't look like a big buyer in the background to me? Unless they are slowly soaking up the sells. On a par with last Friday's volume.

It's getting a bit silly now. I've had to revise whether would buy in Feb. I think I'd call it a day around 15p (and not buy) if we get there by Feb only because I have enough, not because it shouldn't go higher on finance. Then need to dust off plans b & c for the house money..... still a couple of undervalued under appreciated stocks I'm eyeing!

Maybe 15p is ambitious by Feb but not knowing sale completion date, and also pretty much an evens chance of drips of news from co by then might really set this going so who knows.

I'm getting shades under 10p to sell mostly whatever I want amount! 10p about to go?

Slightly old data (struggling to find reliable more recent data by co for the top 10 producers) but this was the top nickel producer list in 2017:

https://www.mining.com/top-nickel-miners-ranked-2017-production/

Vale – 243 kilotonnes
Norilsk Nickel – 163 kilotonnes
Glencore – 130 kilotonnes
BHP Billiton – 70 kilotonnes
Anglo American – 44 kilotonnes

On this list, Horizonte at the nameplate 53kt/yr (Araguaia S1+S2 + Vermelho) would rank as the 5th largest nickel producer in the world.

Not bad for a 'junior' :) Now the question is, which of the list above would like to 'add' 53kt/yr to their production to leapfrog their rivals!

Yep we need the yanks to drop a big QE package to tank the $. If only that were likely to happen, we can but dream....

Also on the 10p thread - I'm 99% sure that the current sp appreciation, assuming it holds into financing, will inflate the eventual equity strike price for the equity portion of the deal. Pretty sure the $ amounts will have been agreed with the cornerstone but the final penning of the price will be done later as one of the last stages of the jigsaw. That means less dilution => higher eventual SP. This becomes circular very quickly.

Maybe not today but it has to be coming. All IMHO....

Mitigation for risk of course is available any time soon for people who want to diversify. Many here have said (and others not here I know) will slice on finance because finance is the rerate event. So up to the point of finance your bet really was - will it get financed or not. Many took that risk. Assuming it gets financed then how you run the ongoing risk relative to what you held pre-finance is up to you - 100%, 0%, or any value inbetween remaining options. Most concur finance will return a win for everyone, it should be possible to run at least half your win at zero risk if you take out your stake which for many will be double the share price or better that they invested.

Not long till the first real 'de-risk' opportunity and for people like Craig and others who have held for a good chunk of the last decade, maybe the right time to slice. GLA

Dogberry I concur I suspect most here with 100% or approaching that have other assets though. 99.32% of my stock holding is Horizonte but if it failed, I'd have means of buying bread. Horizonte diversifies away from main risks associated with the UK for those with UK incomes/businesses I imagine - commodity priced in $ and global demand. That's at least one reason I've invested here to mitigate risk to £.