Member Info for wasarunner

bloomin' eck it's nearly 100 bagged in a year. No wonder the traders don't like holding Horizonte..... I thought trebling my money this year was good going.

Execore - no I've sold remarkably few looking back. I've moved some between pots which resulted at times in slightly less here and there but on the whole I've been gradually increasing my holding since April 18. With a trailing wind (I have funds landing Feb) I'll get to over 25m shares here before finance news lands and 'that will do nicely'. Current average around 3.3-3.4p bit hard to work out now, I have it in 12 accounts distributed around family. Cracking investment if ever there was one, even without the macrocycle we are being told is on its way. This investment (touch wood) life changing for me. GLA

Hi 600T it wasn't meant as the mathematical term but means the same thing I expect.

There were some massive 'value' dips in this stock - half of my wealth here will come from ii selling which effectively is what the Appian chap was saying - imperfections in the market. Looking back, I will owe half of my personal wealth to JP Morgan, City Financial, Richard Griffiths. I considered this a good investment at 4p when I first invested, so to get around half my shares in at 2p subsequently - that's luck, nothing else. Market distortion creating opportunity.

So the graph will definitely not be a straight line up, both in terms of closing price and total wealth, but the trend will be very visible and will specifically confirm the thesis that if you research well, have conviction, don't spread risk as much as some would believe you have to, and invest at multiple points in the story (obviously single big investment suffers from the timing issue - nobody can buy the bottom), it is a potential path to success.

For me key derisk events came when Orion entered, but for most of this journey I thought the 'scrap' value of Horizonte was always above my investment price anyway based on asset alone so always saw this as close to 0 risk as it is possible to be (certainly in relation to the upside on offer).

transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient will continue ever was it thus

one day I'll plot a 'closing' price of Horizonte for every 6 month boundaries I was invested, with the number of shares I owned at that point multiplied. There will be ups and downs but the 'closing' price trend will definitely be up, and the wealth chart will also be up. I'll maybe start doing that when we're at production, it will be a laugh at end of 2023 I expect....

Thanks Luke, a gem of a find. This is the big takeaway, for me:

"Has corporate governance improved in the junior mining sector?

Not really unfortunately, and it is part of what is harming the sector’s reputation from the generalist investor’s perspective.

It’s fascinating that many corporate managers deplore governmental allocation of the taxpayer’s dollar, but enthusiastically embrace their own misallocation of the shareholder’s dollar, and unfortunately the sector hasn’t delivered the returns relative to the perceived risk that generalists believe they are taking on.

It is what it is, and leaves more inefficiency for long-term capital to benefit from."

I think what he is saying is that not all juniors are well run, which then leads to an inevitable loss of return/high reisk for investors who don't see the returns they expect when spreading their investment across some companies. However, it does also mean, that there are some 'gem' companies who will remain seriously undervalued for a long time.

The task the PI is then, to find these companies, and invest heavily. Essentially to sort the 'HZM' from the 'non HZM'. The wheat from the chaff. And I do believe it is wheat here we are buying into. Totally get this strategy, it makes sense to me on every level. Accepting you aren't going to get it right 100% of the time, however (and is probably why they look for 6-8 opportunities and not 'the one').

What buy something when it isn't popular? Whatever next....

yes it was tongue in cheek, I'd be buying too if I could. I guess (shouldn't wish it of course) I'm hoping for some new mild variant to be discovered when I have cash if that's what it takes to keep us below 10p. (But don't wish it really, of course).

Plus side nickel looking perky again up towards $17800. Still a good time to lock in the old offtake. Less than half a year production at that price would bridge the capex gap to debt.....

>>Don’t know what happened there.
Someone was testing how much they would take and accidentally pressed sell probably....

RNS this morning that the sale of co progress has gone slower because of Covid. I know sale process there is slightly different to the financing process ongoing here ( or is it ;-) ? ) but it does suggest either Covid is a convenient cover, or does materially slow such negotiations. GLA

I nearly posted along those lines yesterday but didn't want to create a bad karma (Brazilian Covid). It'll pass. No worse than the East Anglia variant I expect. GLA

I'm actually not sure if Teck or Glencore _could_ sell if they're under NDA. I can imagine Cannacord aren't involved or maybe haven't been offered equity so that's one of the reasons I think an II seller would point at Cannacord (that and the fact they're 5m sold between the last two times the significant holder list has been published).

They don't have to publish significant holders list till end of March. So we won't know if (for example) Cannacord are selling.
It is an interesting date and I think TDT speculated about whether that was deliberate to allow a seller without having to show it over that timeframe. If it's an II Cannacord is the obvious one.

SJ I think you are really saying 'where's the herd'. Do I hear a stampede coming? Maybe not just yet.... (btw I don't know the pattern at GGP and whether it was masses of PIs or other investors that got the price up but we're not quite seeing FOMO on this board, the odd new poster but not that many).

blimey DJ's right. They'll happily take 750k off me. Unfortunately about 20.3p less than I'd be happy to sell them for.....

Ms Dorri's role:
"growth opportunities and providing support for internal growth initiatives."
technically, being 14.5% holders here, by supporting Horizonte to grow they are doing both - 14.5% of their effort to grow the company is 'internal' in that they are enhancing their own ownership of a base resource miner, but secondly, they are potentially developing another 85.5% which they don't currently own, and this could very much be the 'pursuit of external growth' part of the role.

Think someone gonna buy it eventually just a matter of time - lots of reasons I think that, but JM strikes me more of a businessman than a 'hard hat in the nickel mine' kind of chap. Just what point you have to get to is the question and that has two threads - what has the company had to achieve before sale (finance? part build? build?) And what is the nickel market appetite for T/O, when is it 'compelling' to make an offer. Now? 2 yrs time? etc.

I'm happy with either outcome but I still lean towards the 'we won't be producing much nickel ourselves' camp...

I've already glanced at Orion 'moneybags' Mine Finance's liquid assets and they look rather plentiful....

We need to keep an eye on their cash position. FYE 31/12/20 and I believe the reports are published / filed late Feb. I'll be more than glancing over their 'liquid' assets to see what kind of firepower they will be packing for acquisitions...then perhaps dropping an email to Ms Dori with our price recommendations we would be willing to accept etc.

I relate it to EUA in the sense that they achived £1bn mcap+ on anticipation of sale without a concrete offer. I know you shouldn't directly compare companies but broadly similar 'order of magnitude' of resource if their resource estimates are tangible (I make no comment I don't know, but lets run with it, for Horizonte this is published per the international standards). So in a sale scenario we could very easily achieve £0.5bn-£1bn mcap on speculation that a deal will be done higher. Greed as they say is a great motivator.....and that's without a concrete offer price landing in the first RNS.

Just to spell it out on the NPV valuation PP suggested - $3bn *.5 /1.3 £/$ / 1.45bn shares in issue = 80p

So we're agreed here - 30p-80p valuation, majority on this board would vote 'yes please' as long as cash is in their bank accounts by around June 30th? I would.....and I do believe higher valuations are possible when/if we build Vermelho but that will be half a decade maybe more away.

Feels like we need a thread on this to get the SP above 10p by recruiting more eager punters. What price for the sale then if it happens this year :) 30p for starters - that's bang on £0.5bn mcap? Would still be half what the PIs are pricing for the EUA sale and that's obviously a 'risked' valuation as no detail there as to what it might/might not sell for. 60p? Has a better ring to it :) In all cases higher than todays SP? A given I would have thought.