Member Info for wasarunner

there's a chance the numbers weren't all taken at the same time but that would be a bit misleading?

I can't believe Teck have reduced it would be odd. But if they have, it would perhaps explain the softness at times and also would they try to surpress the sp before a deal? That would be a bit naughty.

Alternatively, if they've done say a deal to give away some shares to Orion would that have to be announced? 20m shares odd is not quite declarable for a new holder....

>>OR the deal is being done.
By which I mean, a JV deal with a major to progress Vermelho to DFS in 2021.

The statement is on the 'Our Transition into a Next Generation Producer' slide (slides aren't numbered unfortuantely) above 'Increasing sustainability reporting to support transition to producer' and below 'Stainless steel market remains short to mid term demand driver'.

apols if this has been posted I'm working haven't read all posts but this caught my eye:

"Vermelho to progress to
Feasibility Stage in 2021"

Now that could all be just marketing etc. and there might be no intention of progressing it if deals are already being negotiated but on the face of it there is some intent - the suggestion is DFS stage in 2021.

I know they've said in the past a major could take it to DFS quickly, given all the work Vale and then Horizonte did but it still seems an ambitious plan in 2021 unless there is already ongoing work in this area OR the deal is being done.

Interesting anyway. But again, could just be marketing and it happens later in say 2022 or 2023....timescales are elastic at the end of the day.

Key takeaway from the video - raising equity for capex to enable hold of BTC. Haven't seen that commented here (in amongst the ramblings of how long the sp has fallen and how low it might go). That's huge.

If the company intends to hold btc, and we, as investors (and indeed the IIs who put up the £22m) believe BTC will be much higher in times to come, the balance sheet of the company will expand considerably. It is like a gold miner that hoards all the gold they mined till they get the price they want.

This is a very exciting development IMO. Gives full control not only to when we part with our mined BTC, but also to whom, and on what terms. With the funds starting to look around for supply, that could well be at premium to market price, in the future.

All IMHO.

google,apple,tesla etc. all not in UK (as in, not the hq). Still would have been worth investing in 10 years ago (not necessarily arguing one should invest today). Where the company operates is almost irrelevant - except we know the yanks like a good tech co so as soon as we're Nasdaq listed we'll be flying on that alone.....

and obviously to benefit from all that you need top management making good decisions and positioning the business accordingly. I'm not seeing anything to suggest this mgt team aren't doing that so I put my chips down. Now 3% by PF value £80k in (as I've said before not a crypto expert so that kind of exposure is just fine - I know other investors both PI and II have much higher ratio!)

problem is traders here want to trade. They want it lower, to buy, sell higher etc. To get a decent rerate will need news as we've obviously hit a 'blockage' at the issue price

News will move it eventually or rising BTC price.

I find it all quite amusing - I'm invested here now because I see big market players /funds etc. getting involved in BTC so it clearly has a future. Not interested in daily fluctuations I'm interested in 2-5 year time horizon min. And on that time horizon institutions are now placing their chips, we join them, or don't, but somebody or other is very keen to invest not just in arb but in btc more generally. It doesn't really matter if we're 70p or £1.10 at the moment, it's when we get to £10+ that matters and there is a very good chance we will, in due course....

don't sell. eventually they have to stop if they don't get shares simple really....

AIM the terms are probably important also. We speculate on the equity-debt-offtake mix but if it is very favourable to existing investors and the co, and they've spent this time really getting the best deal we can get, that should result in a higher post finance SP too. Plus the outside chance that there is more than just A1 being announced - that would be a serious catalyst as the market is only (and not quite even) pricing for the A1 event.

DG1 my take on finance and covid is not that covid is a blocker to finance, but covid is a blocker to start of build, and that the co (and financiers) are trying to time finance to coincide 'correctly' with the lead time to when build can commence. If you call the lead time to build a few months, you finalise finance a few months before you are 100% certain you can build.

I can understand this why - if you agree finance say Q3 2019 have everything in place, loans ready to draw down etc, then build starts a year later, all the parties don't like the 'risk' of sitting around in that position not knowing when the build can start and having finance available. In that context you might have the finance pencilled right now, and for all we know, the agreements could all be made right now, just not finalised and signed. Pending a way forward with covid on the ground.

The international angle here is what I'm watching, lots of people and equipment needs to get to Brazil to build this mine so they want certainty on access and travel. Hopefully we get that in the next few months.

Just on timescales that work in my head, you might finalise finance end of Q1 as you have good data that rates and vaccines are working well, countries are opening up to travel, to be certain that you can hit say July running and start the build. This is all just my thinking I could be completely wrong.

FWIW I'm watching the vaccine and rates news with keen interest and also the travel situation. Goldman and others have called that the vaccine will have the desired effect but they're naturally a bit less risk averse so it could be that our investment banks need a couple more months of evidence to sign. GLA

>>The long term investment case here is not one I understand
Then you haven't looked at the price of bitcoin over all time? Ignoring the rises and falls (which we all accept is volatility and this whole market comes with the health warning). The long term investment case is dead simple. Bitcoin will be many times todays price in the future, and if you don't believe that, this is not a stock to invest in.

your target also coincides with Peel Hunt 'risked' valuation at 14p. So a very worthwhile target pre finance I would say.

DG1 - your target there coincides with what the chartists (and a bit of logic) suggests might actually be a viable sp target pre-finance. I'm not a chartist but that's what I'm told. It makes sense in the context that a circa ~200m mcap works, assuming financing delivers and people might position accordingly. Maybe closer to end Q1 though.

Company have stated covid as a factor and I believe it, we kind of want to see continued good news or rather improving news through feb+march and that might change sentiment here for the better and convince people that 'the big one' might indeed land in Q2.

That said don't rule out news in Q1. We are expecting a big announcement but smaller pieces can equally land anytime.

For my money the only thing that could delay H1 would be covid. I just don't see what else, given the stage reported end of Dec (cornerstone, bank mandate, brazilian bank) that would push us beyond another half a year. All other macro seems more than favourable to getting the deal done. GLA

I'd extend this to say I generally haven't done so well on investments where there wasn't II support. Too much can go wrong - greedy BOD, bored PI's etc. Where I have made proper money, there has always been first and foremost - good BOD, II support. We seem to have those here, so fundamentals of BTC aside, those two ticks are essential for me to take a position. I caveat with I'm not an expert in crypto or BTC and still reading but all the other company specific information I have seen here creates a very positive environment to invest. GLA

The other thing about the £22m placing is II's don't buy to make money tomorrow, or next week. What's the point? You don't invest that kind of capital to withdraw it again straight after. They're happy proportionately with the risk and reward - you bet they have an exit strategy, you bet it isn't in the next month or two.

And to convince them to part with £22m? They've seen information almost certainly not in the public domain, under NDA, as provided by the co. These people do DD they don't throw money at non opportunities.

It's huge that somebody would put £22m in at 80p here. I think there is a misunderstanding of the significance among people posting here. This is a very good thing, not a bad thing. Bad would have been raising £22m when the SP was 10p or 20p at the same relative discount price. GLA

>> Just Google institutional investor losses and just read about the £Billions lost.
And as a counterargument, they accept risk of such loss and hence invest for multiple upsides.
If an institution wants to place £22m in an ahem 'safe' investment they'll put it in the bank. But they want much higher returns and accept the risk. Which is exactly what PI investors here are doing. I added at 79p. You have to believe in bitcoin fundamentals to be invested here, but the company news is all good IMO - they are doing all the right things they need to do. All IMHO.

sorry maybe bad word to use there 'faith' it sounds like following Horizonte is a religion or cult and definitely not meant in that context. Be convinced in your decision to invest here is I guess what I meant! No offence intended religious or otherwise....

Grim old January and newish posters and a slight retrace it is easy to get down in the dumps but great prospects here.

Nearly another month down, another month closer to finance complete (covid willing). There is nothing in the macro not to support us - nickel back above $18k and Biden in bodes well for 2021 for Horizonte. I noticed also an article (sorry lost the link) China has rebounded really well and industrial production / steel etc back up.

Just on the boards I've invested in another stock an opening position but their board gets like 1000 posts and most of it is absolute drivel of the 'why hasn't it gone up 10% since I invested 10 minutes ago' type. It makes you realise what we have/had here, lets look after it a while longer. I've learnt loads on this board - about Horizonte, the wider macro picture for nickel / EV, and about different investment strategies, both good and bad. It's all about learning and information exchange and this board has been a great tool, thanks to you all. Horizonte's time is near, keep the faith. GLA

Please keep posting bluebudgie I value your posts. Insightful and the brazilian on the ground situation posts too. Wasa

Valuation gap should close significantly post finance here IMHO. Maybe Horizonte won't be valued at £1bn short shrift, but it'll be valued a lot higher than the £100-150m mcap range.