Member Info for wasarunner

Horizonte must think Vermelho can get to FS in one year as the investor presentation says 2021. It probably needs a bit of cash and a partner who knows which way they want it to go. I don't know on the permitting side what's required, however, does anybody know the lead times on that?

In terms of build time a major wouldn't have the same hoops to jump through for financing one would imagine (it wouldn't take them 2.5years to raise the cash) but they would have to assemble an owners team to get building. Maybe start of build in 2022 and if it is a 2 year build 2024 as pp says might be possible?

I always thought something like 2025 but would be more than happy with 2023-24 especially if we can retain a good portion or a free carry etc.

please keep eating cheese sandwiches Kpn1981!

But you don't know the motive. I ignore ramping (and de-ramping) and look at fundamentals and arrive at the value I ascribe then decide to buy (or sell). Others don't, they are driven by 'sentiment' they read on a BB. And that is dangerous given that there is money to be made (in both directions) by creating a given 'sentiment'. So IMO (only) that's what is wrong with blind optimism or pessimism not based on an investment narrative. GLA

I have targets at £3.5 and £7. No technical basis (i.e. chart) just personal targets based on holding size and objectives here. I think both targets will need an ascending btc price - it won't be achieved at current price. My timeframes are 18mth-5yrs (but sooner is just fine).

The catalysts I see:
- increased prod
- increased btc price
- nasdaq listing
- lse listing
- HODL
these targets feel quite achievable to me.

I think people do get a bit hung up on previous share prices so price often lags value. Quite clearly we also have a lot of PIs of nervous disposition or looking for a 10% trade a day in this stock. This is all fine, I've seen it many times before. I am invested because there is ii interest in the space (both argo, but much more importantly btc). If I'm right, btc will become slightly less volatile to the downside as the ii's will mop up the sell. Perhaps the upward trajectory will be as described in the models, perhaps less swift but it doesn't matter too much - once the downside is less volatile this becomes a much more robust investment class and more ii's will buy - it is pretty obvious.

One of the attractions of gold over time is it holds it's value relatively well (but is unexciting in other ways). Once btc is more like that, and I think that will happen in due course, it will gain further traction.

The upside here is unlimited because we really don't know what the future potential of btc is. There's the bull case / uberbull case etc. I'm happy that there are many multiple upsides possible on my investment timeframes - 18mths-5 years and I accept the downside risk on that basis. GLA

If you think btc holds $32k and this share is worth £1.20 simple - dont invest. The same size of downside from current price is also possible and you can get that kind of sp appreciation on say vodafone with a divi to boot.

You invest here because: a. Bitcoin upsides multiples from here b. Company aiming to be in the top producers. If you dont see multiples ahead it isnt worth the risk.

I see it as investing in apple before phones were really big or shell/bp before oil was a big thing. If you dont believe this is like that best to stay away imo. Gla

Hi Paul, if you double output and the commodity goes up 10x in price (which is possible here) you get 20x. Add to that that a. We might be undervalued and b. We are undervalued by what people might pay on frothy nasdaq and further multiples are possible in due course.

Have a look at eua - it 100 bagged and it did it with no outcome (ie on a promise) over a 1-1.5yr timeframe. I make thst 10000%, not 2000%.

I'm not saying all this will definitely happen here, but it is a possibility, and a good enough reason to invest here imo.
Gla

Barmancy I don't understand why you think there is silence. Yes, financing closing slower than we hoped. But cornerstone investor and brazilian bank $32m isn't silence. Show me a junior commodity stock on aim which announced $32m new money in the last two months.

I get people might get frustrated but I expect finance news on at least a1 to complete this year. Also consider that silence might reflect a bigger deal being negotiated in which case the silence would indeed be 'golden' for shareholders.

Look at eua. Company said october 2019 it was planning to sell - it hasnt sold yet. These things take time. The bigger the deal the longer the time.

But in case that isnt enough check the nickel price and figure if our partners dont want the 4m tonnes at these, and higher prices....

Horizonte doesnt beat its chest and actually I find that reassuring as an investor. Drumming it all day every day would be more of a worry. Gla

yes and SR told me last Feb it would (ok he's slipped on timescales - we'll cut him some slack Covid has definitely been 'a thing')! bank mandate, cornerstone, brazilian bank, orion interview recently, all tells me the downside risk is now small %.....

The Investor Presentation has an excellent slide on the below. Again pages aren't numbered but just before halfway through:

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20210122-investor-presentation.pdf

The divergence forecast between probably supply and probable demand happens sharply in 2025. Now assuming TDT is right and EV uptake is faster than anticipated - I'm very much in this camp. The probably supply and probable demand will diverge sooner. Of course, this trend will become very visible a year or two before it takes place. The nickel price spike will come much sooner.

There just aren't enough viable projects at the right price, with a 10 year development window to supply the second half of the decade. I get that not everyone wants to wait 5 years for this to play out but there is a serious chance they won't have to wait that long and either the boom will happen sooner, or, knowing what is coming, a buyer will swoop for Horizonte. My rough prediction is it'll all go bang in 2023. In a good way. GLA

Hi Tornadotony, that's fine and of course your decision to make and you have your reasons.

In Feb 2020 I met with Simon Retter and asked him straight up whether Araguaia could compete with Indonesian producers on the ferronickel side. He was adamant it can, at almost any nickel price. Moreover I asked him whether the $14k/t base case could they really build Stage 2 out of FCF. He was adamant they could.

So sub $14k/t - Horizonte make money
$14k/t - Horizonte can build stage 2

All our equity partners know this, C1 is very low, so we will get financed, it is inevitable. How much profit will the company make? Well that of course will be determined by the nickel price in the future and wider supply. But being lowest quartile, a lot of other companies will fold (can't produce at B/E) long before Horizonte will have to worry about not making money.

That doesn't mean Horizonte is necessarily the highest return investment over the next decade (out of all possible investment opportunities), but I don't see a downside where we don't make money and there isn't some upside for shareholders. GLA

And by that I mean - just as funds are moving into btc I do believe it will find further uses. Deposits/interest/credit etc etc. There is a plethora of finance structures to which btc is not yet, but could be, applied.

badeli agree 100% with your post. I've been invested 3yrs in hzm and it would be easy for new investors (and we have many smart investors there who came onboard late 2020) to think the ship has sailed. Like here, that is far from the case. Sometimes the initial rerate just wakes people up to the opportunity and I think that is what has happened here. When I researched this company (and I am a new investor here in 2021) I couldn't believe it only came publicly listed in 2018. Life moves pretty fast in the crypto world as our ceo keeps stressing. A couple more years here and the landscape could (and I am betting will) look different again - in a very good way! Gla

Maybe he was wrong maybe he wasn't but maybe your tone doesn't help. Vaux has contributed much of value to the board and maybe thats what people weigh when they consider his post against yours. Just saying. Anyway it is a grim January but hopefully good news is not far away. Would love to read more into the new investor presentation than just a refresh but it is difficult when there were so many errors. I am encouraged by Bwana's call in that it sounds like Vermelho may progress this year. I wasn't expecting it tbh not because it doesn't make sense but because the company has hands full kicking Araguaia off and haven't made a big thing recently about V. But if the partner is lined up then clearly it could be 'game on'. Gla

The fund angle is huge also. Blackrock getting off their lazy asses to add btc futures to their funds. It will get mainstream acceptance and whats the betting funds start prepaying (like a miner would be paid offtake) so that they can get supply which never even hits open market. Being the miner will be an arms race but that's where you pick your co where you think they have the technological edge...and then you are picking a co for smart management team. I think uk listing helps here we are getting this cheap.

Well, what's interesting me right now is there is a capex number in the 'FS Ecomonics' section of the new investor presentation for Stage 2. Previously, the capex number was buried deep in the DFS document and wasn't generally brought to the fore as the company was keen to promote the fact that it would be funded from FCF. The cost has increased somewhat (from $199m - $251m) but I see this as a sign that potentially they have done a lot more work to prove up the cost. Why, I wonder? Could it be that Orion want to fund it from the off? That was always my suspicion as to a possible permutation. They certainly had plenty of time with the delay to improve the engineering plan for Stage 2 (it has been known for a long time now there was sufficent ore to supply it - indeed it was the whole point of having Stage 2 in the first place).

We also now see an average pbt per annum figure for both stages:
Average PBT per annum
US$94M US$174M

Again why at this stage - perhaps to justify the deal we are about to get to that promised PBT?

Finally you just have to love the Vermelho figures. Just in case the NPV wasn't enough at $16.4k/t they give you the NPV USD $2.3bn at $19k/t. That means you can retain a 40% share and hive off 60% to a major and STILL have NPV of $1bn left over! And, presumably, if they shoulder a lot of the capex your real NPV to Horizonte might be even better.

This is dangerous to be out of on both fronts - timing, and the eventual news we are expecting. At the moment and arguably we aren't sufficiently rated for A1. Any news on A2 or V as part of 'the big' RNS and we're at the races. GLA

Thanks Bwana great news.

Thanks Bwana let us know how it goes. I would make contact but maxed out as I'm homeless soon.....(in a physical rather than financial sense....)

I'm hoping we find out what is going on with the Teck numbers. If they have reduced it could mean something more significant (in a good way) is going on this year for Horizonte and this could involve Vermelho. A bit of a shakeup as it were. Please let us know if you get a response tdt.

Couldn't resist but that's me in again - £105k total at 4% of PF and that's my lot. All the background research I am doing suggests this is going to head up in next 12-18 months at least, short term blips don't concern me, and I think when looking at the industry you need to pick undervalued by peer comparison and this is it. Proper US listing has to be a goal and we're cooking here. Also will consider holding some or all for the 'next' cycle whenver that is up to 2025+. There is huge money to be made here, it might just take some patience. GLA

>>doesn't seem to suggest the shares were put on the open market
Orion? happy to take shares?