Member Info for wasarunner

@farhantahir good luck hope you get there. It can be done. I'm up the equivalent of my 25 years working income in last 3 years investing and around 3 years from my goal. Retirement at 50 for me I hope yours is earlier :) I have modest requirements but I figured 5% on anything above £5m would be very comfortable (and reinvest most of the income as I don't need to live off it)... I used to think £2-4m end goal but when I got to £2, and still at the beginning of the journey with my main investment and decided £10 is very possible and indeed, quite likely. As always, bit of luck required in this game but other than that it's just starting capital and use your brain. Good luck.

So - the furnace is western. Then so is the ECA. And to some extent, higher capex can be cancelled out by higher ECA as I believe the ECA terms are usually favourable (vs for example bank debt) being long tenure low rate. Call it positioning supply for where you see the future demand if you will..... all continues to support the ESG credentials and where Horizonte eventually see the product going IMO.

indeed and if you're a 'whale' I'm still learning the lingo, you would see current price as a good price to add. For now I've reached my threshold so will just hold (average 83p and absolutely not concerned). I will reconsider (and potentially add) if bitcoin happened to drop to mid low $20ks and/or argo dropped to 50ps but unlikely I expect. If the cycle is correct we are preparing for the next (upward) correction. And company news to boot. GLA

Just to draw it full circle the forward implied 'real' yield curve on govt debt is here:

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

depending on your timeframe you can lend to the govt and get -3% to -1.5% return on your money (adjusted for inflation). Great! Where do I sign!

so the question is, who the hell is lending to them, and why do they keep lending? Sure, the answer is deep and complex, and the govts around the world have a lot of trust (both UK and others), but you can't keep printing debt, and money, ad infinitum, and keep paying your 'lenders' negative yield forever, because one day the 'fat lady sings'.

Personally I see btc at least as good a hedge for that eventuality as gold, and at least with btc (and by proxy) it is a bit easier than having the bullion under the mattress. As ever, all just IMHO. GLA

As a counterargument (to the exuberance around bitcoin and argo though) consider this:

"Official OBR estimates (XLS, 201KB) published on 21 August 2020 indicate that the £214.9 billion borrowed by the public sector in the financial year-to-October 2020 could reach £372.2 billion by the end of March 2021."

This is the UK public finances. The UK govt borrowed £10,000+ PER BITCOIN WHICH WILL EVER BE PRODUCED in a period of one fiscal year to October 2020. And that was the UK govt, there are many like it, and not least, the US govt like to do quite a lot of borrowing (and printing). So multiply up by a list of countries you choose.

So if you believe bitcoin is a bubble you also have to consider that govt debt could be a bubble and I definitely know where I stand on the latter. And what will happen when the latter bubble bursts, to the former? You places your bets I guess - my money in the event of a significant devaluation on currency is an inflation in the value of cryptocurrency, and gold, and certain other assets. You'd better be holding some of those when the debt bubble bursts - anyone remember 2008?! GLA

lunq I respect your strategy and I used a similar (but different sector) to get to my holding so absolute agree 100% it can work. I guess we all have to accept we make the decision though and never blame anyone else if it works or doesn't work. Highly focussed conviction play is absolutely a high return strategy but doing the research is key. Then being able to accept if luck goes against you - everyone should accept there is some luck in the game, if it was pure science the computer algo would win hands down (and it doesn't). GLA

The current sp (and higher) makes sense on every financial metric you would care to apply to a standard company, but always and only if bitcoin continues to perform. That is the bet here, ladies and gentlemen, pure and simple. I put my money where Microstrategy, Blackrock, Greyscale et al are putting theirs, and not just following every other PI for the sake of it :)

The current shareprice will become derisked with every month of production Argo manage at current levels with bitcoin at current levels though. So although some got in higher (me included) the (new) floor is being set on both btc and argo. It is good that people made money on the last rise but there are further rises to come and people invested higher will recover their money - always assuming btc rises long term. But if you don't believe btc will rise long term you are already out of this, IMHO. GLA

Thanks Luke that is interesting.

FWIW there may be more than one, but we have an 'open goal' on offtake surely here with Glencore. Glen are one of the biggest intermediaries for nickel in the world (selling to their customers, both their own, and others mined nickel) and given that nickel is mainly used in steelmaking presently you would imagine Araguaia would be 100% fit for them. I can easily see them agreeing to buy 60-70% of our supply. It isn't often that a ready made customer is already a shareholder, another blinder by the BOD here....

>>3-5 years to get to 10 figures,
Sorry 8 figures. 10 figures would be nice but sadly - not going to happen :) apologies, no ramp there intended...

Hi farhantahir lot there that resonates with me and I have a similar 'long term' plan. At the moment I am 95% AIM until I have a portfolio value which I can move to a more defensive strategy. It is hard to build a large portfolio in a safe way - a lot of PIs will accept we have to take higher risks (at least initially) to get closer to our objectives. Recognising the point and it will be different for everyone when not to chase the stellar gains and protect what you already made is key.

I started 8 years ago with 5 figures, I hope in the next 3-5 years to get to 10 figures, I'm currently at 7 figures low. One thing I've learnt is you can't shut your eyes - whether it is to new opportunities (like btc/argo to me), or to your existing investments and the dynamic of what is going on with them. long term buy and hold is a good strategy but you have to keep reading, keep learning, keep following or your investments trend to 0 if you don't!

Anyway GLA I don't want to clog the board with off topic - I am very interested in the crypto space and will consider a bigger investment down the line but I will look for the next cycle. One thing I've learnt over time is there is always another compelling investment point down the line. You never miss out overall on investment opportunity by waiting. 'This is the last time you can get x at price y' is the biggest misnomer. It might hold for a given investment/stock but there is always another, in a given space, or, the same investment/stock in 3 years time might be very investable again. GLA

I'll add to that last post I'm diversified. I think I get crypto, I think I get Argo, but it remains a % (around 5% at latest count) of my portfolio. Maybe in the years ahead I ditch my other assets to go all in but I'm a long way from that. As is 'Bill Miller' I note and he is clearly a crypto bull but still invested in equities, property etc.

Yes you have to use your brain here to pick out the useful information from all the posts without useful information. But there is useful information here just sometimes hard to find it.

To me the investment case is simple - you either believe in btc long term or you don't. If you don't, you're trading it and could be trading anything, it doesn't matter. If you do, then the next question is do you believe in Argo. BTC is notoriously volatile (though - if the world is shifting and institutions are buying I believe it will become less volatile and that is an investment case in itself). So predicting next months shareprice or btc price - good luck with that.

It is like every other investment I have ever owned. Be prepared to hold 5 years or don't bother investing. Key word here being 'investment'. If you are in for a trade it doesn't matter what you trade. You can trade apples and make money.

I'm relatively new to crypto but I get the arguments (for btc) and I am slowly understanding Argo's role and business model and I like it. One thing I have always been very clear on is macroeconomics, money printing, and govt and personal debt (in the west). I've spent last 5-10 years trying to insulate my assets from these things I can't control. And you know BTC (directly or via proxy - Argo) might just be (one of) the best ways to do that. GLA

Unless I am mistaken HODL has the effect that the SP of Argo should, to some extent become disconnected from the current BTC price and should instead be priced by an average 1 or 2 year forward looking price. Now in the case of BTC, unlike other commodities, future price is hard to arrive at because it is a volatile asset so easier than done. Nevertheless, if the forecast price is higher than current price then you have to stop multiplying monthly production by monthly average price because this isn't the price we will sell at.

This is established in traditional mining industries as offtake agreement (agreement to pay a set price for a set amount of product). It depends then on what Argo intend to do with the BTC which they HODL. I guess at some point they might sell some to increase mining capacity. Timing the sells will be important. HODL indefinitely has some appeal assuming BTC keeps going on up,

In any case it is a very interesting dynamic and not one traditional miners can execute. For example, oil producers can't store the product indefinitely and wait for a high oil price. I think the market isn't pricing for this scenario (Argo, I don't know about the other miners). But it is relatively easy to see that we could build a balance sheet on warehoused asset which is equivalent to our current market cap, maybe in a year or two with sufficient BTC prices. Which is kind of barmy but a nice problem to have ;)

Ivor I tried to google it, and was unable to find detail - it appears that often the precise financial terms of the offtake deals are not disclosed publicly (looks like they remain known only to the two parties).

The one I did find specified a price at 5% below LME prices for a given tonnage. So it fixed a quantity and it pegged a price relative to I guess the 'market' price for nickel.

I guess there are two aspects to the offtake:
- One, it gives the other financiers (bank, debt) assurance that there is a market for the product. So as such the offtake will help close the other aspects of the finance deal. You have a customer.
- The second bit which is more interesting to me but I can't find information on is - if they offtake do they get a prepay on any of it - i.e. can the prepay offtake be used to fund capex hence reducing the remaining capex.

If anybody knows more about the above please let us know.

Isn't it indirectly - price is low - high cost producers priced out of production, stop producing - less producers means difficulty reduces? I think this is why being a low cost producer Argo can keep making money.....

Vermelho and Serra do tapa and Araguaia2 and any other resource that may be contained, such as the cobalt, which Horizonte cant independently develop in the next 2 years or so make us a hugely tempting morsel to the coming ev boom. A fishing analogy would be a hook loaded with every tasty bait the proverbial predatory fish could want. And that is as good a reason to stay invested as any roadmap which Horizonte have themselves have published imo. When the fish bites it will take the lot, hook line and sinker. Gla

delboy the financial impact of the Coronavirus pandemic is expected to be a once in 300 year event (the most serious economic event over that timeframe) and btc has been around 12 years. I think you're asking what will happen when the next once-in-300 year event hits the financial markets to btc will it be more resilient. Hopefully we won't find out for another 300 years. I get that there will be stock market corrections, and possibly imminently but the march shock was a big one last year. Just about every asset class and it's brother tanked (with the possible exception of gold) GLA

In fact of course, by extension, if you had a willing partner to Vermelho you could leverage that for the finance on Araguaia given that the latter has been 'delayed'. If that did end up being the case, expect fireworks on the shareprice this year. I don't know if that's the way it is going but it would be very exciting - apart from anything else we would see production from Vermelho sooner, than later, and that has to be good for anyone who is going to stay invested here medium/long. And for the short termers probably a higher exit post financing if Vermelho is part of the mix. GLA

Well, I always wondered if a deal on Vermelho would follow in the year after Horizonte set Araguaia off on the build. I do wonder however whether the delay (12-18mths from what was originally envisaged) on Araguaia has given the BOD sufficient time to review options on any incoming interest and whether they might be able to pull the trigger this year. Definitely something to keep an eye on, I can't see Horizonte taking this to DFS by themselves because they would need to make the decision themselves on what to build, and have been quite clear this was a project they wanted to collaborate on. If you are going to JV it then the partner should be involved in the decision making clearly.