Member Info for wasarunner

Just a final point on the 'T/O or not' debate. There probably aren't enough nickel assets near enough for production which would place a buyer (whether already, or not) in the top 5-10 producers in the world by tonnage. I'm seeing this now with our business as we start the sale process - there aren't many businesses like ours, in our 'jurisdiction', so the opportunity to buy one comes along rarely and potential buyers are jumping at the opportunity.

As shareholders in Horizonte we will be looking very much from the company view 'should we sell or should we produce' but to some extent, perhaps a large extent, what we should be considering is whether the company is attractive enough for a bid. If it is, then what is going to prevent it being bought? At the moment it is is probably Teck/Glencore on the shareholder register but even do they have enough of a vote to block a bid? Probably not right now. The cornerstone investor who is it - Orion? Perhaps the insti investors post finance can block a bid, perhaps they can block a lowball bid.

In terms of answering the question 'are we attractive enough for a bid' then I think the answer is pretty obvious if we believe where nickel is going. So a bid will come IMO. And I think if a bid comes, the company will sell. There may be counterbids but either which way, once this process begins I don't think it will end in a result that sees us independent. So when will a buyer make a move? I've got time to wait and I don't know the answer. GLA

Just on T/O the reason I think it is more likely (than not) is the pace at which a major can get the assets online. I just don't think Horizonte, with the best will in the world, probably even with a willing partner on Vermelho, can get all these assets producing in the kind of timeframe you want to catch the boom. And, if you have to give away too much to make that happen, why bother. Why not just sell (for the right price of course). There must be companies out there which could easily, and without breaking much sweat, have Vermelho and Araguaia at full production by 2025. I just don't think that's us if I'm honest, not based on the progress I've seen in 3 years since I invested. So for my money - T/O more likely than not, it then is all about when, and for how much. GLA

agreed but they could still (then) do the equity to the cornerstone at discount to market which is where I based my 11.8p estimate on. So - 15p pre funding, then the discount is ~20% (except somebody had already taken 12p :-)

I think we will get funded before any offer. Just my view. Hopefully offer soon after if we're going to get one at all in the next year or two....

didn't mean to set off the board on each other. Peace, ladies and gents! There are many investments that will do well, HZM is just one of them. I happen to think both ARB and HZM will do well over time. As ever it is about timing one's investments - I actually think HZM is a long term surefire winner and win large (50p+) but I don't know the timescales. There are other potential opportunities for a small piece of the portfolio action which might return not necessarily greater returns, but over shorter timeframes (my timeframes for Horizonte for full value are 3-5yrs+). Therefore all arguments have merits. I have a relatively nice 'first world problem' that I still have chunks of money landing and have to decide where to put it. When Horizonte was 1.7-3p, that was a super easy decision. At 8.5p it is still a relatively easy decision. If our business sells (hopefully Q4 2021) I will have another shedload of wonga but I will probably have to look for something else because with any luck, Horizonte will have financed and we will be sitting at 15-20p and other opportunities (from that level) will offer better long term value. I'm trying to 'dabble' so I can follow other opportunities and learn. Personal experience is if I'm not invested I don't have interest to follow a stock so I have to open a position to get researching it.

None of this takes away from the excellent prospects here. At risk of antagonising people I very much hope to end 25-26m shareholding here then not sell a share until first production or company sale, whichever comes sooner. Again, because of good fortune and personal circumstances I won't need any of the cash post finance. So why not let it all run to finance and eventual Vermelho news. My one big hope here is we get Vermelho news sooner than later because until something happens with Vermelho, anybody 'cashing out' is really giving away a lot of future upside. GLA

600Thieves 19.5p
Flavourshaker 15.0p
Brisk 14.0p
Theaeo 13.0p
Rover62 13.0p
VauxhallViva 12.5p
Caledonite 12.25p USD78m
djryan777 12.0p Equity 75 million rest made up of pre-paid amount and credit for equipment about 70% debt.
Ericb 11.0p
Nthoftheriver 10.5p
ilfc4life 10.0p
Nagyielad1 9.9p
WillieB. 9.8p
SeanT1967 8.5p
craigieboy1 Equity price 8.5p -total raised USD $80M
wasarunner 11.8p USD 60M
SoundBuy 12p USD 60M
D220 14.4p & $75m

haha maybe I provided some liquidity....

yeah weird, lowest I paid was 8.32p, highest I paid was 8.38p so hardly any difference on about £135.5k.
I think I've only ever bought £100k+ on one day before and the price went up around 0.5p that time. Didn't budge so either someone is selling or the MM was well stocked.

It's actually pickedpeck post that brought me back all into Horizonte - the feeling that we will get bought at some stage. It is pointless speculating that we're worth 25p with 2bn shares when a buyer down the line will have to pay premium then what valuation do you get? Much higher than 8p. I don't accept we'll be sold cheap as chips - not after the first financing tranche has landed.

And if we consider 50p a par for a sale of multi billions NPV (again working on 2bn shares) then I still don't see too many other opportunities with >5x upside with what I see as minimal downside from current levels. So it's buckle in from me and just my impatience to master :) GLA

Not all new money, some moved between pots and some was my ARB trade. But suffice to say I'm a shade under 'all in' now, I still have a couple of other very small holdings. I tried to chase Craig down but it ain't happening, those extra years head start on me for his 28m shares. If Horizonte had stalled another coupleyears on the financing, and I'd kept my job, then maybe, but I think not - this is the year. Anyway, first world problems what's a million shares here or there. We just need the deal closing now :) GLA

wonder if there's a seller with the price not really moving, or, maybe the MMs have a surplus of stock at this level.

I added about £136k in the last half hour or so. Good liquidity - barely moved the price. I'm just being greedy really, house money still not for a couple of weeks. Feeling restless needed to buy something, cold winter passing too slowly....... GLA

True but nobody (including the BOD) believes bitcoin will stay as low as $30-40k otherwise none of the miners would be buying coin on open market. And given that we didn't sell the coin we mined in January, a forward looking profit on January production is much greater than those numbers. Markets forward price, that's how it should work, but they aren't forward pricing here which creates the opportunity to buy under future value . GLA

Worth reflecting that BTC $600k and we've got the market cap, today, in btc HODL'd. OK I know $600k is far fetched (for the minute) but we're also adding BTC per month from here on in. An exciting strategy - ascending commodity price and also if all miners HODL, it will restrict (new) BTC supply to market somewhat. If everyone does it, it will drive up the price of BTC. IN a similar way to OPEC and oil - with or without an agreement. Very interesting developments....

haha very funny....
....turns out moving your house (packing it up, distributing it among relatives/removals, with a couple of inches of snow to boot) is time consuming. I've been following the market a bit and indeed 'topped up' on Friday the price looked quite tasty in the high 7's.

House exchanged on Friday but I won't reveal precise completion date 'cos you'll all jump in and fill your boots the day before and I'll be left buying above 10p :)

Yes ARB is a volatile share but my exposure is a lot more modest. I sold it on the high on Friday like a pro trader. Problem is you do one good trade and suddenly think you're a trader next time you just get it wrong. I'll leave the trading to others!

Still very positive about Horizonte and will indeed commit at least the majority of the house money here in due course - I concur with pickedpeck I think when, not if, the bid comes and that had me reflecting - it is almost pointless investing in the base case of trying to predict which year the shareprice will be what based on a roadmap Horizonte may map out for us. I don't think 'stage 2' Araguaia will ever happen, or at least, I don't think it will be Horizonte that builds it. So the question is what price we get taken out at and which year. I can be patient but I don't want it too cheap - I know we've debated it before. Anything north of 25p is 'enough' but of course, I'd like the most we can get. GLA

$40k/t at 14.5kt/yr produces $475m gross profit after C1. Even after tax we would pay the loan back in 1yr at those numbers.
I'd love to pay down my loan after 1 year on a 28 year mine life! 27 years of gross profits ahead.....

factor in a bit of currency devaluation also (got to be coming) - admittedly doesn't raise the net worth of what we mine in real terms, but it sure as hell will deflate that $325m debt pile. Small beer compared to the $27tn number that they have to deflate...... around 83000 Araguaia's!

the pandemonium that is. btc ~30k. we mine 100 coins in Jan at, say 70%. £1.5m gross profit.
Repeat next month.
Repeat next month.
Eventually bitcoin will rise. The btc is warehoused. Happy days.
Everything this company is doing justifies the current mcap and more. If the market doesn't get it, if people don't get it - I just call that a buying opportunity. If you bought higher you will make your money back, or, you have an opportunity to add. If you're a trader and you got your trade wrong - well - it happens - part of trading I guess.

If we stop mining or costs go up or we start to mine slower I'll worry. If bitcoin goes down a bit I won't worry - that's bitcoin. If shareprice goes down I'll add. If shareprice goes up I'll wait. This is easy money IMO - but always on a longer timeframe than many anticipate....

>>Hold for Gold.
Hodl for btc.

murmurings there might be a market correction about to happen? I'm generally not following markets at the moment. If it happens so be it, with a share like Horizonte you have to invest in the cycle, and financing should give enough of a rerate to weather a wider market storm. Also, I can't see it materially affecting the financing (chance equity will be done cheaper I suppose) as hopefully the debt and the offtake are thereabouts already.

It is the one thing about investing in the markets nothing is quite a given! Sometimes the boring days are the best days....

BM - a very exciting prospect. Looks like house will complete mid feb at earliest so still a few weeks to go. I must admit it has been rare that I wanted Horizonte to drop but this is one of those rare moments.

For others 6th April may still be a target but I do get that most here wanted this done, like, a year or two ago!