Member Info for wasarunner

swest if the people posting here are even half right it won't matter whether you buy 9.5 or 8 IMO. I'm resigned to paying whatever it costs at the time when house money lands - still see this as an excellent investment at 10p. FWIW I think the way things are going 10p will probably be toast soon anyway and we might see 15p pre-financing. That sat comfortably with me because ~£200mcap is very reasonable for a $700m NPV (first stage project) at this stage - on the assumption there will be some, but probably relatively modest, dilution.

So I'm with the others here who think a dip would be nice, but not essential. Very investable at current levels. Any new money in at this stage should be targeting 30p I would imagine, as a minimum.... (the 3.5p buys can be sold earlier ha)

Also if your exit is shareprice driven rather than event driven, please put a shareprice for exit (assuming your timescale is then flexible)

Sorry title should have been 40%+.

I am really interested in how long people plan to hold the majority of their current investment in Horizonte. Accepting that people will de-risk, take some profit, perhaps trade along the way, but how long are people in for in principle? Suggest 'majority' in this context can be 40%+ of current holding, accepting that many (me included!) are in up to their eyeballs in this opportunity - way more than is sensible. Like the other guess please add your moniker and timeframe. If your exit is 'event' driven rather than timescale driven - for example - Araguaia financing, or Araguaia first production or - Vermelho, please put that. Thanks! Really interested in what people think here on timecales and how long people are prepared to wait for what they see as the value point.

wasarunner - 2025+

The week where we hit 10p I think we closed Friday 8.55 (yahoo data). 22nd Jan we closed 8.75p. I think 9.15p is the high weekly close? Is that important? As people have noted the volume isn't high well down on the early January volumes running up.....

Alright you're a tag team I give in. My estimates are rubbish I'll rip them up and re-forecast. Lets see which side of 10p we are in a weeks time then! GLA

soundbuy I think Vermelho only needs a direction/partner to add value to Horizonte - of course, producing would be lovely, but it doesn't need to be there right now. I don't think there is much baked into the SP at the moment from Vermelho but that would change overnight if a partner was announced and a direction set (to HPAL or not to HPAL, that is the question)...

I'm pretty sure that with the FOMO coming around EV progress on Vermelho (kind of more progress than just looking at environmental permits) would probably double our SP from here. That's my dilemna/question - will it happen in the next 18 months?!

Thanks Flavour my estimates are certainly pessimistic by the average predictions here. I do very strongly believe in big numbers in 3-5 years time, my dilemna is just trying to generate a pot to buy a house in the 18-24 months timeframe and I don't know if we will fully realise our potential by then.

I would be very confident if you could predict accurately that something will happen with Vermelho (guaranteed) in 18 months. It feels likely but is it certain? Without Vermelho then my targets for Araguaia alone are 15-25p roughly in 1-2 years respectively so that's the investment case for me. With Vermelho then it's a whole different calculation.

ng it was a slightly rhetorical question - I ain't selling.

Do have a dilemna though. I think if this is 'the move' that brings us back to 10p or perhaps even above, and with time running down on Q1, I may not invest the rest of the cash here now. Only because I am looking at an 18 month timeframe for first withdrawal (perhaps ahead of production) and I'm not confident on the shareprice by then. What do people think in 18 months - halfway through the build. 20p? More? I just have other opportunities to double my money I think in a year.

That said I'm at 24622627 shares at the moment so it is certainly 'enough' to benefit from a post financing run up to production and beyond. The question is whether to add another £100k at whatever the price is in 1-2 weeks time...

suppose I should just pretend I can play the markets like a daddy and be happy with that. I'll tell you all I told you so 2 days ago was the time to buy.....

bloody hell not used to making 15% in 2 days. What do I do now? Sell? Can traders help me out here...?

we're moving again. Vaccine news positive? Nickel macro? Notice we're touching $18k/t again....

always do it in the trading account (not the ISA!) I figure if I get it wrong - early Christmas present go and spend the money on something :) Someone mentioned if you do a dummy trade like that you can spook the MMs - I've noticed if I gradually increase the trade amount to quote the amount they offer to quote increases.

around 8.9p (just under that I think)

yeah I just don't get markets. None of it makes sense to me. What changed in 24 hours -nothing (apart from I bought some!)

I do like some of the conspiracy theories that this is being kept low for a reason. I also like the one about the delay is not really due to Covid but the bigger deal! I guess we find out 'soon' for some value of 'soon' :)

must be some buyers in the wings or the MMs out of shares again? Weird how things move in 1 day yesterday I could buy as many as I wanted! (not selling, obviously, not one of the 10% brigade.....!)

I've obviously screwed up if buying yesterday moves us up and I can't get my house money in here. It was a calculated risk. House money still a couple of weeks away. I really thought the general sentiment was nothing to see here and we'd drift around these levels now we're seeing a bounce (I hope I didn't cause it!) Anyway mustn't grumble still value sub 10p and still buying, probably, but if we could just drift around a few more weeks would do me nicely.....

It will be good to see an outcome. I'm pretty sure when I first invested in 2018 I thought it would be 2019. In 2019 I am certain I thought it would happen in 2020. In 2020 I was certain it would happen, first, around the summer, then later Q4. We're in 2021 it would be 'nice' if it happens in H1 failing that Q3 but let's 'get finance done' to coin a phrase. Of course, the terms are more important than precise timing but we can see end in sight of Covid (the vaccines data is really encouraging now) there shouldn't be a macro reason for not getting it done. And the BOD definitely can't claim not to have had a good 'negotiating time'. We appointed Endevour Financial 31 Oct 2018 - that'll be 32 months come end of June 2021. That's a decent stint to get the financing done! GLA

Craig my calc (if you're right and your previous estimate of 8.5p for the equity) would be ~1.25bn new shares which is close enough to the currently issued shares. I just can't see that as viable so either they will raise less ($, and raise other finance from other sources) or I think the equity price has to be higher than 8.5p, ideally a lot higher.

They might have to leverage Vermelho if they want to raise the balance in equity. If they dilute at company level the equity issued will also give the holder the same % of the 'bigger' asset. So issue at higher price and the cornerstone and other ii's get some of Vermelho.

I can't see us being invited into the equity but stranger things have happened...